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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 11:04 AM Original message |
A look at Iowa polls since the Pew data was collected starting Nov. 7: |
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dmallind (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 11:20 AM Response to Original message |
1. So assuming (without foundation) equal polling rates |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 11:31 AM Response to Reply #1 |
2. My point was that the Pew data in the report released today is older than data in at least 5 polls |
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dmallind (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 11:39 AM Response to Reply #2 |
3. Well in all honesty you can't say that |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 11:50 AM Response to Reply #3 |
4. Not really. Only the AP/Pew poll is an outlier with data gathered over 18 days. ABC/WaPo gathered |
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dmallind (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 12:04 PM Response to Reply #4 |
5. Not the point however |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 12:30 PM Response to Reply #5 |
6. Are you sure Hillary's 7% drop from the Pew poll to the Rasmussen poll is within the MoE? |
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dmallind (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 12:53 PM Response to Reply #6 |
11. Well the issue is a bit iffy between different polls but yes really |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 01:02 PM Response to Reply #11 |
12. MoE is based on sample size so when you attempt to aggregate multiple polls that enhances certainty. |
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dmallind (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 01:24 PM Response to Reply #12 |
13. Only if all the polls are equal and valid but mostly agree |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 02:38 PM Response to Reply #13 |
15. Maybe you don't see a decline for Hillary, but apparently her campaign does: |
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Auntie Bush (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 03:02 PM Response to Reply #1 |
19. Edwards is going up the fastest. |
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Tejanocrat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 04:30 PM Response to Reply #19 |
26. That's how it looks to me. |
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antiimperialist (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 12:32 PM Response to Original message |
7. The AP/Pew poll useless because it's very, very old |
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Kurt_and_Hunter (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 12:34 PM Response to Reply #7 |
8. You are correct. The AP poll was taken during the worst of Hillary's bad press. |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 12:35 PM Response to Reply #8 |
9. But the later polls show her support erroding further so I guess she's still in free fall mode. |
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antiimperialist (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 12:39 PM Response to Reply #8 |
10. I disagree with you |
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sundancekid (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 01:32 PM Response to Reply #10 |
14. couldn't disagree with you more - IMHO, your several posts above |
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antiimperialist (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 03:39 PM Response to Reply #14 |
23. you are in denial. hillary has lost ground |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 05:13 PM Response to Reply #23 |
28. It's hard to spin the data any other way. |
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antiimperialist (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 09:11 PM Response to Reply #28 |
29. and it's hard to make a case in favor of an ancient poll |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Dec-04-07 04:15 PM Response to Reply #29 |
35. I agree |
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Quixote1818 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 02:43 PM Response to Original message |
16. Edwards looks to have the most momentum. nt |
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Kurt_and_Hunter (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 02:44 PM Response to Original message |
17. An intellectually honest person would use the mid-point or end-point. |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 03:06 PM Response to Reply #17 |
20. How is the mid-point or the end-point more "honest" than the beginning-point? |
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dmallind (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 03:16 PM Response to Reply #20 |
21. because using the latter |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 03:28 PM Response to Reply #21 |
22. First, using the mid-point doesn't change the order and using the end-point only flips the order |
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Tejanocrat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 02:55 PM Response to Original message |
18. From the Pew poll. Who has the "strongest" support, who would you never vote for: |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 03:40 PM Response to Reply #18 |
24. Six (!) times as many Iowa Dems definitely won't caucus for Hillary as compared to Edwards or Obama! |
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ClarkUSA (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 09:51 PM Response to Reply #24 |
31. Wow, that's bad news for Hillaryworld! |
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Tejanocrat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 03:57 PM Response to Original message |
25. What's up with Hillary supporters floating old numbers and calling them new? Mother Jones is on it: |
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Stop Cornyn (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 04:55 PM Response to Reply #25 |
27. I'm glad to see Mother Jones on top of this. |
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Czolgosz (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 09:43 PM Response to Original message |
30. k & r |
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Sancho (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Dec-03-07 10:00 PM Response to Original message |
32. Some dates are on Real Clear Politics: |
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waiting for hope (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Dec-04-07 01:50 PM Response to Original message |
33. I like those trends - |
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Zynx (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Dec-04-07 01:56 PM Response to Original message |
34. All of those polls are virtually identical in results. |
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