I wouldn't worry too much about the polling in Iowa until the last week

[Quixote1818]

If I remember correctly Dean was still ahead going into the last two days and even the polling on the last day didn't even show the huge surge Kerry and Edwards ended up with. The Iowa polling was basically worthless compared to the final results.

A lot of the same concerns about Dean are surrounding Hillary such as elect-ability. If people are just a little nervous about a candidates ability to win the Presidency they will likely shy away from that candidate in the voting booth when they search their gut for who to vote for.

This is how the Iowa Polling looked about this time 4 years ago:

Dean 26
Gephardt 22
Kerry 9
Edwards 5

This is how it ended up:

Kerry 37.6
Edwards 31.8
Dean 18
Gephardt 10.6

How much the early December polling missed by: Dean + 8 Gephardt + 12 Kerry - 28 Edwards - 27

[gateley]

1. I've heard these numbers tossed around, but I haven't seen them in my face

like this before. It's really astonishing! Every one of those candidates must have been going - whoa! where did THAT come from?

Thanks for posting this.

[Quixote1818]

3. You are welcome. nt

[gateley]

2. DELETE - DUPE

[wyldwolf]

4. oh, come on! That's like asking College Football fans not to worry about the score...

...until the last two minutes.

[Quixote1818]

5. I will admit that I like watching the polls too

mainly to see trends and momentum at this point.

[rufus dog]

6. agree with your point

that the numbers at the end of next week will be critical. Based upon the Jan 3rd date I don't see a whole lot of movement over the holidays.

By the way for those concerned with the Orange Bowl conflict with the caucus, not that big of a match up. Shouldn't pull many people away from the caucus.