IA POLL: Hillary 30, Obama 29, Edwards 21

[jefferson_dem]

Unlike the GOP race, standings in the Democratic campaign have not changed dramatically since the September NEWSWEEK poll in Iowa. However, Barack Obama has gained some ground, moving to within a point of Hillary Clinton among all Democratic voters (29 percent vs. 30 percent), with John Edwards in third place at 21 percent. Among those most likely to attend the caucuses, Obama has moved substantially ahead of Clinton, 35 percent to 29 percent, while Edwards falls back a bit, to 18 percent. Obama also gets more support from those who say they will "probably" attend a Democratic caucus (40 percent vs. 27 percent for Clinton). While the Illinois senator's lead among Democratic caucus-goers in this poll is not large enough to be statistically significant, things seem to be trending his way, Hugick said. "It's evolving into a two-person race, with Edwards hanging on," he said.

The close duel between Obama and Clinton depends a great deal on the way their competing strengths are perceived, the survey shows. Obama is much more likely than Clinton to be viewed as the candidate best able to bring about change (42 percent vs. 28 percent for Clinton) and as more personally likable (41 percent vs. 18 percent). Clinton, however, is viewed far more as the candidate with the right experience for the job (48 percent vs. 15 percent for Obama) and as the person most likely to defeat the GOP nominee (36 percent vs. 27 percent). One potential trouble sign for Hillary, however, is that in contrast to the 2004 Iowa caucuses, when John Kerry leaped into the lead on the basis of his electability, only about one quarter (23 percent) of likely Democratic caucus-goers say they are inclined to support a candidate with the best chance of defeating the GOP nominee.

This poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International from December 5-6. Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,408 registered Iowa voters. Registered voters were screened from a random-digit-dial (RDD) telephone sample of Iowa residents. Registration status is self-reported and includes those who plan to register. Ninety-one percent of adults in the sample reported being registered or planning to register so they could attend a caucus.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/74215/output/print

[Debi]

1. I can't see where they asked any of the 600-some Democrats polled

about anyone other than Clinton/Edwards/Obama.

Help.

[rinsd]

4. It looks like the full poll has yet to be released.

[MadBadger]

2. When Likely voters are taken into account...Obama leads 35 percent to 29.

Among those most likely to attend the caucuses, Obama has moved substantially ahead of Clinton, 35 percent to 29 percent, while Edwards falls back a bit, to 18 percent. Obama also gets more support from those who say they will "probably" attend a Democratic caucus (40 percent vs. 27 percent for Clinton). While the Illinois senator's lead among Democratic caucus-goers in this poll is not large enough to be statistically significant, things seem to be trending his way, Hugick said. "It's evolving into a two-person race, with Edwards hanging on," he said.


http://www.newsweek.com/id/74215/page/2

[rinsd]

3. MOE goes from 5 to 7 in Dem voters vs Likely voters.

[geek tragedy]

5. I'm still loving that number, and even moreso that trend line. n/t

[rinsd]

7. Obama fans have plenty to be optimistic about.

[JackORoses]

11. oh, really....Glad you are starting to come to terms with reality.

[rinsd]

12. Huh?

Oh yeah, you're the one I embarrassed on the other thread.

Being the bright bulb that you are, you think my saying there is plenty to be optimistic about for Obama fans is somehow different than what I have said for oh about 6 months now. And that you've caught me.

All you did is embarrass yourself....again.

[JackORoses]

14. oh ya you're a real badass, I look forward to more of your spin as the Trend continues unabated

How are those new poll figures treating you, Ace?

Looks like you are bound and determined to go down with Her Majesty's Ship.
May God have mercy on your soul.

[jefferson_dem]

16. "Obama fans have plenty to be optimistic about."

How in the world could one (especially an Obama supporter) claim offense at this statement?

Lighten up. Times are good.

[JackORoses]

18. oh, I wasn't offended about that statement. It is very true.

I was just noticing that rinsd is beginning to apply the trend evident in recent polling to his thinking.

He argued with me for hours yesterday that there was no trend, or if there was it wasn't really bad news for Hillary.

I just enjoy seeing the truth begin to filter into a person's perception. It's a wonderful thing.

[BeyondGeography]

17. You're wrong about this guy

He's actually the fucking gold standard of the Clinton crowd. Read his stuff and give it a few more interactions and you'll (hopefully) see what I mean. He'll come at you hard, but never without some facts and he'll actually acknowledge when you've made a good point, even if you're not on his side. Around here, that's Gandhi-like behavior.

[JackORoses]

19. you're probably right

he does seem to be one of the more rational Hillarites,
yet sinks right back to the lowest common denominator by asserting his skills at 'embarrassment'.

I don't mind, it's all just verbal jousting.
It's a give and take ;)

[geek tragedy]

20. Don't be an ass. Rinsd is as cool as they get.

On either side of this debate.

[MadBadger]

6. True.

[MadBadger]

Not that it matters all that much, but I read that the MOE is 6 with LV

[MadBadger]

10. Delete

[MadBadger]

9. That 18 percent number for Edwards is a little unsettling.

It shows a down trend in terms of likely voters Sure the MOE is 7, but he cant have Iowa turn into a two way race. I sure as hell hope it does, but I dont see it happening.

[PATRICK]

8. This is too generous

Things are not almost the same. It would indeed by a long slog contest between campaigns shifting a few points here and there if things had not changed. The change is just BEGINNING to be reflected in the doubtful polls.

This issue is very critical momentum with the settling down of votes and the movement from undecided to decided. MORE critical is how the Hillary campaign has been damaged and actually lost the slug match to a not too graceful Obama campaign. Other things like strategy and delegate outreach can be astutely added up in Obama's favor but the big fish in the frying pan is Hillary's somewhat self-induced decline, the retreat of the high tide, the exposure of doubt and vulnerability.

The article nervously hedges because obviously this is not reflected yet in the polls and the arrows pointing that way would hurt the "objectivity" of the voodoo science.

The only hedge is the extreme strength of the Clinton campaign and the hearty base. This will be no meltdown, no sure thing, but a significant loss is very possibly on the horizon. She might even turn it around with some tour de force or other.

[jefferson_dem]

13. Complete results here - - - >

http://www.newsweek.com/media/75/0714_newsweek_poll.pdf

[hayu_lol]

15. Actually, this is a good sign...

We just may have a primary 'with legs' that will allow all the states to participate to the end.

See what happens in NH and beyond.