Everyone post your predictions here!

[sampsonblk]

I ain't afraid.

Dems:
1. Clinton by a hair
2. Obama

Everyone else will be on life support. These two are getting all the media attention now. If it turns out to be a close 1-2 in Iowa, that's going to be the story. And no one else will be able to get on TV without paying.

The numbers will be so close that Iowa will not change the national race between the two. On to New Hampshire!


GOP:

1. Huckabee by a solid margin*
2. Giuliani
3. McCain

*Huckabee has gone overboard on his religion over the past few days. If he continues it, I will take back this prediction. Time for him to let it go and talk policy. Everyone who cares to know already knows he's a baptist preacher.

[cali]

1. So you're just talking about Iowa?

I think it'll be Edwards by a hair, then Obama and then Clinton quite a bit behind Obama.

For the repukes I think it will be Huckabee then Romney, Guiliani and Paul.

[MadBadger]

2. Delete

[sampsonblk]

4. Yes, just Iowa

I confess that I have no idea what will happen after that. The spin emanating from all the campaigns is going to be sickening. I know that part.

[Andy823]

I agree with you

Edwards by a hair, a large one, then Obama with Clinton a far third.

I am not sure about the republicans, but think that McCain will be in the top three, probably third.

[cali]

8. I really hope your wrong about McCain

He's more formidable than the others.

[LSparkle]

3. Obama by a hair over Edwards in Iowa; Clinton third

Clinton in New Hampshire by a hair over Obama; Obama wins South Carolina by sizeable margin (Clinton second); Clinton in Nevada over Edwards (few points, no blowout) with Obama third. February 5 completely up for grabs -- Obama competitive in California, though, so Clinton won't win all.

[MadBadger]

5. In Iowa It will be 1. Obama 2. Clinton 3. Edwards...

Onto NH where it will be
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

In SC it will be
1. Obama by ten points
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

In NV it will be
1. Clinton by a hair
2. Obama
3. Edwards

[rateyes]

9. Iowa: Edwards, Obama, Biden (Hillary comes in 4th)...

you heard it here, first.

NH--Edwards, Clinton, Biden

SC--Obama, Edwards, Biden

NV--Edwards, Clinton, Obama

[MadBadger]

11. I just dont see Edwards making up his 20 point deficit in NH

[Ninga]

12. Kerry was polling at 7% in December 2003. It is impossible to predict.

[Yukari Yakumo]

47. However...

Dean was neck-and-neck with Undecided in '04. That is not the case for the Dems in '08.
(However, it is for the RePukes this go around.)

[rateyes]

18. A win in Iowa will change a lot of minds...

If he wins Iowa, he will be first or, at the worst, 2nd in NH.

[cali]

16. nope. it won't be Edwards in NH

I think he gets Iowa, but no way is he going to get NH. That'll be either Obama or Clinton. And he won't get SC either. Your scenario is hopeful but not realistic. That's what peering through a partisan lens does. It bends reality.

[rateyes]

21. So, now, cali is going to tell me that she is non-partisan...

:rofl: my ass off.

[cali]

22. glad to provide amusement, my little rodent

but it's true. I don't see much difference between Obama, Clinton or Edwards on issues, and I won't vote in the primaries for anyone who voted for the IWR. I don't care that much who get the nomination, ratty. I'm more interested in the Congress.

Oh, and I've said I don't have a candidate in this race for 6 months now. I've said I'll probably vote for Dennis as a way of sending a message to the dem party. But I don't think he'd make an effective president.

[rateyes]

28. So, you are partisan against anyone who voted for the IWR...

for you to claim non-partisanship is a joke.

[cali]

49. really? prove it rattyone.

Provide some evidence for your specious, ratty claim.

[rateyes]

52. From your own hypocritical mouth....

"...I won't vote in the primaries for anyone who voted for the IWR."

You fall by your own words. You are partisan against any candidate who voted for the IWR.

And, BTW, you are a Democrat...which means you are partisan toward Democrats.

We're all partisan. And "all" includes YOU.

Charge proven.

[surfermaw]

31. Then it will be hillary, N.H won't vote for Obama

EDWARDS number one in IOwa...

[MadBadger]

33. Why wont NH vote for Obama?

[cali]

50. Why are you so convinced that NH won't vote for Obama?

I think you're wrong. Granted, I live in VT, where Obama is the favorite by a long shot, but NH has been moving closer to VT politics. I think you're wrong.

[venable]

38. wow, cali weighs in on 'partisan lens'...

cats sleeping with dogs is next, followed by other great implausibilities.

[youthere]

46. I think Clinton will take NH

[sampsonblk]

6. Clinton barely over Obama. Huckabee solid over Giuliani

Just to reiterate.

[emilyg]

37. Agree.

[jillan]

7. Obama will win Iowa.

[1corona4u]

23. I think Edwards wins Iowa...

Then Biden...

[Catchawave]

10. Edwards, Obama, Biden,Clinton, Dodd,Richardson....

Iowa Dems want to win in 2008 !

[MadBadger]

17. No chance does Clinton fall to fourth

[PresidentObama]

13. Democrats... it will be Edwards, Obama, Biden, Clinton then Richardson.

In Iowa, of course.

New Hampshire will be Edwards winning with Clinton just a hair behind, and Obama just behind him.

Edwards will slightly win in South Carolina, just barely over Obama.

Clinton wins Nevada. By at least six points.

[cali]

20. Edwards supporters seem out of touch with reality.

Edwards isn't climbing in NH and it's only one week between Iowa and NH. He has virtually no black support in SC. He may do well enough in NH and SC to stay in it until Super Tuesday. Then it's likely over.

[PresidentObama]

30. Yawn. Thanks for your opinion.

Next...

[Dawgs]

40. I think your being biased, but I wouldn't be surprised about Iowa.

I personally think it will be Obama, Edwards, Biden, Hillary, then Richardson.

I don't agree with the rest of your post.

[WheelWalker]

14. Seems to me like Joe Biden's thunder is trumping Oprah's applause.

Forgetting little matters like the NIE and CIA tapes, aren't we? We'll see which has legs with this party and this nation, won't we. Showmanship or statesmanship?

[Steely_Dan]

26. Ooooo...nicely put. n/t

[Hippo_Tron]

15. I make no predictions for Dems because of clouded judgment

And Romney is either coming in first or second in Iowa. I'm still predicting that Romney will get the nomination. Huckleberry isn't ready for prime time.

[sampsonblk]

27. Wow.

Not too many people are picking Romney these days. You don't think the mormon issue is going to sink him?

[Hippo_Tron]

32. It might and that's my one reservation, but here's my logic

Huckabee is peaking early and IMO doesn't have the funding to fend off all of the attacks that they are going to run against him. His win in Iowa also won't be that spectacular if the media makes it inevitable. Romney is still in a good position to win in New Hampshire and is in a fairly good position in all of the early primary states, including Michigan. Huckster may indeed take Iowa and South Carolina and will put him in a competitive position.

While all of this is going on, Giuliani is coming in third and fourth place for three weeks consecutively and will be irrelevant by the time Florida and Super Tuesday come around. He might have had a chance if he could take a few second places, but he's not in a position to do that. That leaves Romney and Huckster to duke it out on Super Tuesday. IMO, Romney wins on Super Tuesday. He's got more money, he's more well connected, Huckabee is prone to saying very stupid things. Not only that, but he's already provided the other candidates with tons of material to attack him with that Iowa voters probably know about now, but Super Tuesday voters may not.

I could be underestimating the anti-Mormon factor and that could indeed put Huckabee over the top. But I'm not ready to make that prediction.

[Perky]

19. Obama 39% Edwards 26% Clinton 25% others 10%

[Dawgs]

41. Wow!! I think we'll see a surprise, and I hope you're right, but 13%.

Actually, now that I think about it, Obama has a 13% edge among likely caucas voters in one of the more recent polls.

[Perky]

43. Remember how caucuses work at the precinct level

if you guy does not hoit 15% you eith have to support a viable candidate or go home.



I am betting that WHile Hillary has a lock on her votes and Obama has a lock on his. Mosts of those who have a second choice are going to drift far more to Obama then Hillary.


ANd where Edwards is marginal, they will lne up behind Obama because a Hillary win in Iowa probably dooms his chances, whereas an Obama win probably keeps him alive,

[asdjrocky]

24. Edwards, Obama, Hillary-

But if Hillary's campaign dose not improve it's message, I see Binden coming on strong for third.

Huck, Mitt.... and I don't care.

[Tejanocrat]

25. Edwards 34%, Obama 30%, Hillary 26%, Richardson 6%, Biden 2%, Kucinich 2%

Huckabee 38%, Romney 34%, McCain 10%, Thompson 6%, Giuliani 6%, Paul 6%

[1corona4u]

44. I'm bookmarking this now.....

See you on Jan 4th.

[Tejanocrat]

53. Is this a wager you are proposing?

[FrenchieCat]

29. Mine....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3823244

[SaveElmer]

34. Hillary and Obama essentially tied...1 or 2 points difference...

With Edwards far enough back that it essentially knocks him out of the race...although he will continue until he is beaten in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada...

Biden makes a respectable showing...in the 15% range...

[Occam Bandage]

35. Whoever wins, the supporters of the losers will blame the media.

[sampsonblk]

48. Absolutely

No question about that.

[rucky]

36. If this were a horse race...

I'd bet Obama & Huckster to win, Romney to place, and Edwards/Clinton/Biden to show. I know I'll lose at least one of those on the show, but should make it up with the other five bets.

[Dawgs]

39. 1) Obama 2) Edwards 3) Biden 4) Hillary

[Yukari Yakumo]

42. Predictions...

WK 1
IA Dem - Obama (Marginal Victory), Clinton, Edwards
IA GOP - Huckabee (Tactical Victory), Romney
::Dodd, Gravel, Hunter, Keyes, and Tancredo drop out::

WK 2
WY GOP - Huckabee (Tactical Victory), Romney, McCain, Ghoul
NH Dem - Clinton (Tactical Victory), Obama
NH GOP - Romney (Tactical Victory), Huckabee, Ghoul, McCain
::Biden and Richardson drop out::

WK 3
MI Dem - Clinton
MI GOP - Huckabee (Marginal Victory), Romney, Ghoul

WK 4
NV Dem - Clinton (Decisive Victory), Obama
NV GOP - Huckabee (Marginal Victory), Romney, Ghoul
SC Dem - Clinton (Tactical Victory), Obama
SC GOP - Huckabee (Decisive Victory), Romney, Ghoul, Thompson
::Thompson and McCain drop out::

WK 5
FL Dem - Clinton (Decisive Victory), Obama
FL GOP - Ghoul (Marginal Victory), Huckabee, Romney

Pre-Super Tuesday
ME GOP - Romney (Marginal Victory), Huckabee, Ghoul

Eventual Dem Nom: Clinton
Eventual GOP Nom: Huckabee

- - - - -

Notes:

Kuch and Paul will not drop out.
Thompson will drop out as soon as it is clear the South has spurned him.
Edwards will stay on until after SupTues, then he'll throw in the towel. But without a big win in IA, Edwards has no shot at anything beyond IA.

Huck will be the GOP nom, look who wins most the GOP races before SupTues.
Hill will be the Dem nom. Sizable victories in NH and NV will reestablish a big lead (to be followed with a big win) in SC. By this point her momentum will be too great for anyone to overcome.

[youthere]

45. I say for IA:

Edwards, Obama, Biden then Clinton.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. Spurs Win NBA Title

Pats win Super Bowl

LeBron James is NBA MVP and Tom Brady is NFL MVP

Clinton wins Dem nomination

Romeney wins Republican nomination

Clinton beats Romney 52- 46 and becomes the second Dem in the last forty years to win a pop vote majority...