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Edited on Tue Dec-11-07 06:54 PM by FrenchieCat
The media has been on the case of who will be the Democratic nominee for quite some time, but we have now arrived at "CrunchTime" and they are now going to go into overdrive. Based on the primary schedule, they have little time to waste, as they need to influence our vote, and most of us know that the last 2 weeks prior to an election is the time that voters are really, really paying attention.
The media has already set it all up, and it is now ready to go.
Hillary was talked about above and beyond anyone else throughout primary season and before. In fact, she was promoted positively 24/7 for the last 2+ years. The constant talk of inevitability and Hillary as "the frontrunner" has irritated the Dem Base to no end (as it was designed to do) and Currently she is being deconstructed and nothing she nor Bill will do and/or say during the next 2 weeks will gain them any positive media attention. In fact, Bill's campaigning for Hillary is about to be turned into a negative....but the media has to be careful, cause the whole point is to keep the base disgusted with Hillary being heralded as the winner over and over again without any votes cast.
Hillary has gotten about as much mileage as she was going to get from positive reporting, and from two weeks ago on, the attention will become deeply negative. Her failure to capture anything but first place in Iowa (unless she can come in first in New Hampshire) will be written as a dismal failure for her campaign, and it will only go downhill from there (or that is what the media is counting on).
The media hates the Clintons, and in order for the media to feel vindicated over their rabid and irrational herd actions during the 90s, they are engineering Hillary's lose during these primaries. It is total payback for both Bill and Hil (and to a lesser degree, the entire Democratic party legacy that they left). This plan was set up long ago to work; and so it will.
Obama has been promoted for the most part very positively for the last year or so. In fact, it is highly due to the media's encouragement that Obama determined that he would run for President. Please know that Obama, as far as the media is concerned, has reached his high note penacle with the Oprah endorsement, and just as we see it here, Oprah is going to go down for the count along with her chosen candidate (the media gets a twofer....cause they are tired that oprah is so loved nationally anyways). The media is not ready for a Black President who's track record is not clear enough of them to truly know how it would all end, and it appears that the Democratic party isn't truly ready either. The Democratic party is too afraid of losing, and we all know that Democrats, at the end of the day, tend to be scared of a whole lot of things.
The media will be deconstructing Obama for the last couple of weeks prior to Iowa. They have already started; see the Oprah fanfare get played down as "barely a gain" to a "might be a lose" a la Dean endorsement by Gore in '03. The media has positioned Obama in a "high expectation" slot in Iowa, and Obama will be seen as more of a loser than a winner if he places anything but 1st place.
Both of the above candidates have enough money to last them a while, BUT it is the free publicity from the early states that count for the rest of the primary season, because it is priceless.
Edwards has been pretty much ignored and left to his own devices throughout the primary season till now. He was always always mentioned as part of the top tier, and never totally forgotten by the media; but he was simply never highlighted for the attributes he brings to the table.....but that is all about to end. It has always been glaringly obvious that a media story featuring Edwards as the great White Hope in the sense that he fits neatly the historical legacy of what constitutes a winner in Presidential politics; the good looking White guy from the South.....was not being suggested nor promoted by the media. This was purposefully done so that he would not peak too soon....because whatever "flaws" he has will not be discovered until "later". The Dem base have grown to love him, partially because the media ignored him and his attributes, and because Edwards has had nothing to lose in his campaign rethorics of promises......and has had everything to gain; including a solid base at the progressive end of the democratic spectrum...and these folks vote! The well publicized media storyline of "Obama vs. Hil" rumbles have cleared the way for an Edwards rise just in the nick of time (funny how synchronized it all is). Now, please know that Edwards will not be rising because of anything special that he has recently said or done, but rather because he is now the underdog waiting to come on the scene who can provide Iowans another choice other than the over-reported candidates; Obama and Hillary. Going forward on, for the next two weeks, Edwards is about to garnet much more press, most of it positive (as he did in 2003-04 in the last two weeks prior to Iowa). Edwards' been weakened significantly by his acceptance of matching funds, which makes him a more acceptable candidate for the Corporate Media......as it could lead to an exciting and "against the current CW" GOP victory in the general election (which the Corporate media prefers at the end anyways....cause they are...corporate, after all). But till then, Edwards is now ready for his close up in the primary story line.
Current Prediction:
I will call Iowa for Edwards....and I am not sure, but I believe that Iowa will propel Edwards to, at the very least, a 2nd place finish in New Hampshire.
Still in Iowa, Obama will take a respectful 2nd place finish, and Hillary third. Biden will come in fourth, and Richardson will take fifth. If Biden and Hillary's placing are reversed, it won't help Biden win any additional states beyond allowing him to live another day, but it will be the beginning of higher than before doubts by the Hillary campaign. Dodd will drop out after Iowa and endorse Hillary.
I predict that Obama will win New Hampshire, with Hillary close behind. With Edwards' close 3rd place finish, that will clear the way for (out of favor) Michigan...where Hillary will win (as her name is the only one on the ballot). A Michigan win won't mean much, but it will make Hillary appear a bit stronger and erase her embarassing primary debuts.
Then it is off to Nevada, which will give Hillary her first bonafide win, with Edwards placing 2nd. Richardson will take a respectable 3rd, and Obama will take a (not good enough at all) 4th. Biden will drop out at this point or will become a non entity candidate.
In South Carolina, one week later...OBama will take first, Edwards 2nd, and Hillary 3rd. Please note that it is very possible that Edwards could come in first (if Hillary and OBama split enough of the 50% Black vote) with Obama in 2nd instead.
I do not predict what will happen further than this.....and I cannot predict who the nominee will be at this time. I believe that the end result will depend on how the Corporate media chooses to appproach each and every known results after its occurrence.
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