ABC News: Iowa - Obama goes to a lead, with 37 % support; Clinton has 31 % Edwards 26 %.

[Zueda]

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/story?id=4021096&page=1

Obama's Theme of Fresh Start Resonates Strongly Against Clinton Campaign

Currently, among likely Democratic caucus-goers in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, 33 percent support Obama, 29 percent Clinton and 20 percent Edwards, with single-digit support for the other Democratic candidates.

In this poll, when supporters of single-digit candidates are reallocated to their second choice among the top three, Obama goes to a lead, with 37 percent support; Clinton has 31 percent, Edwards 26 percent.

Update with link to pdf: http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1056a1IowaDemocraticCaucus.pdf

[JackORoses]

1. that seems more in line with other recent polls, but now he's outside the MOE of 4 pts

One small step for Obama,
One giant leap for Mankind

[Zueda]

2. There are some interesting charts and numbers in the pdf file found in the article. nt

[TeamJordan23]

3. Obama is slowly (and I mean slowly) moving to frontrunner status in Iowa.

I still think the race is too close to call, but the signs for Obama are very good right now. I think more people are becoming receptive to his message.

[Zueda]

5. no doubt.. .it would take a major shift to turn him around in

RCP Averages at RealClearPolitics once they update with these numbers.

[MadBadger]

4. GOBAMA!!!

Thats a big pick me up, especially with him gathering an even greater lead with second choice support.

[Capn Sunshine]

21. FIRED UP!

Ready to GO!

[Zueda]

34. READY TO GO!

:bounce:

[maximusveritas]

6. Finally, some sanity restored

The other poll was crap. That said, it is still anyone's game.

[TeamJordan23]

8. Yeah, but to be fair to the other poll, Obama was leading among highly likely voters.

And I wouldn't count out Edwards just yet.

[maximusveritas]

9. True, I think it was just misreported

The highly likely voter result was the one that mattered, but people just wanted to pretend Edwards had taken the lead, so they led with the other result

[loveangelc]

11. why? nt

[maximusveritas]

24. A number of reasons

The main one is what I said above. Their initial "likely voter" screen was just asking people if they were going to the caucus. That's not a good screen.
Their "highly likely voter" screen was better, but that's not what was reported for the most part.
Also, as Chris Bowers made note of, they undersampled the young voters.
And this is the first time they released an Iowa poll.
All that adds up to a questionable poll.

[loveangelc]

7. so many polls

which one to believe? I dont care, I still say they are overestimating Obama, I say Hillary wins. Hillary getting negative press will help her with voters who hate the media. Unfortunately.

[TeamJordan23]

10. I think they underestimate Obama, b/c young voters are usually not included in these polls

And I honestly expect a 20-40% increase in the young vote for the caucus with most going for Obama.

[Capn Sunshine]

26. Caucus camps

We veterans of the Dean Campaign advised Obama early that some framework was necessary to get young people to the caucuses with the right kind of knowledge to be heard. Back Then, Our people were predominately young and the average age of an attendee is like 55. They were intimidated and in many cases ignored. The answer was caucus camps and the young people won't be clueless this time around, so I'd say the chances of the youth vote turning out are highly enhanced.

[TeamJordan23]

31. Thanks for your help. We will all appreciate it if Obama pulls this out. nm

[loveangelc]

38. It would interesting

if young people (my age group) are actually the determining factor in who the nominee is.

[Zueda]

40. Well if your candidate would stop trying to disfranchise...

college voters then it could become more of a determining factor...

http://www.georgetownvoice.com/2007-12-06/editorial/student-rights-a-primary-issue

But perhaps you would want to stay on message for sake of the Clinton campaign.

[loveangelc]

41. you fail.

I am not a Hillary supporter in the least. My choices are Obama then Edwards.

[Zueda]

12. Hah!

...with voters who hate the media.

That's a statement fit for RedState

[loveangelc]

13. ..what?

[Zueda]

32. I said...

THAT'S A STATEMENT FIT FOR REDSTATE!!!

...Did you hear that time?

[loveangelc]

37. no, actually I didn't hear because TEXT doesn't make SOUND last time I checked

...oh, and, being that I am new and all, I have no idea who Redstate is that you are referring to/of. So if you could stop trying to be an ass long enough to explain I would appreciate that... but I doubt you can do it.

[Zueda]

39. Google it...

here: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Redstate&btnG=Google+Search

But essentially I'm saying stop acting like those who always blame the "media" when their guy/gal screws the pooch.

[Fried Bread]

14. Good to see.

[TwilightGardener]

15. Hot DAMN!!

[antiimperialist]

16. What a misleading headline. The numbers are Obama 33%, Clinton 29%

In the headline you posted the numbers of a hypothetical scenario that will not happen: that single-digit candidates votes will be realocated. These candidates will participate, as far as we know.

Fix the headline please.

[MadBadger]

18. What does it matter?

The poll is predicting that Obama will have 37 percent and Clinton will have 31 percent because of the 15 % threshold. So really, those are the important numbers to look at.

[antiimperialist]

22. Accuracy matters. Everyone but this thread is reporting 33% to 29%

Likely voters is what matters, not an adjustment after some obscure hypothetical reallocation of single-vote candidates.

[MadBadger]

25. But thats how the caucus works. If a candidate doesnt get 15 percent, they choose a second choice

And this poll says that nobody else besides the top three finish with 15 percent or over. Im confused what the issue is. This isnt really just some "hypothetical" like you say it is.

[IA_Seth]

42. But that isn't how it works.

If a candidate doesnt get 15%, they aren't out, they have another chance to convince others to support them (to make them viable), combine with another preference group (to make a new viable candidate preference group), or combine to move a delegate forward as uncommitted.

[TeamJordan23]

27. I think both numbers can be accurate. The reallocation number would tend to be more reflective

of what the outcome will be on caucus night. Either way, the trend is Obama.

[maximusveritas]

20. Yes that's what happens in a caucus

Candidates who don't make the 15% threshold have their voters reallocated.
Of course, it happens on a precinct-by-precinct basis, so that's why these polls can never really predict the result. But they do give an idea of momentum.

[IA_Seth]

29. As a clarification.. they aren't exactly eliminated.

If, for example, Richardson has 7% in a given precinct, and in that same precinct Biden has 8%, then those two groups could join together during the realignment phase and be considered a viable preference group (be it for Richardson, Biden, or 'uncommitted').

But otherwise I agree, polls can never really predict the result!

[ClarkUSA]

23. Why don't you post another OP thread? Obama still leads, no matter what...

The more threads about this poll, the better I say. ;-)

[BeyondGeography]

28. True that

==However, having the "best" experience may not be necessary; in another measure, 61 percent say Obama does have the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively. And those who say so support him over Clinton by a 3-1 margin.

Obama's made notable gains elsewhere. For the first time he runs about evenly with Clinton in Iowa on electability: Thirty-five percent pick her as the candidate with the best chance to win in November, but 33 percent pick Obama -- an 8-point gain for him from last month.

He leads Clinton by 35-26 percent among people who say they're "absolutely certain" to attend their caucus (Edwards 20)==

[ClarkUSA]

35. Thanks for the excellent poll subdata, BG

Somehow, I doubt there'll be another OP thread.... but I know I'll go to sleep with a smile. :toast:

[ClarkUSA]

17. A new national poll has Obama only 5 points behind Hillary (nice upward trending again!)

For more information on the poll data and complete results, go to: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3861601

Obama's message is catching on to a greater audience than the early voting states, it seems.... :-)

[Zueda]

33. READY TO GO!

:bounce:

[ClarkUSA]

36. FIRED UP!

:toast:

[ariesgem]

19. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

:-)

[suston96]

30. So lemme see......

One thread, or more, say that Clinton takes the lead.

Another thread, or more, say that Obama takes the lead.

A third thread, or more say that Edwards has jumped into the lead.

Then some threads have posters who say that they will hold their breaths until they turn blue and die if their candidate loses the nomination so they won't have to vote for the winner of the nomination.

So what the - forget! Whas happenin around here. Is you folks always like this?

[Carrieyazel]

43. Its an ABC poll. Good for wrapping fish and nothing more.

These polls are usually outliers.

[Carrieyazel]

44. Don't put too much faith into one poll. Other polls show it much differently.