More Iowa Polling to argue about (WaPo-ABC out today)

[Perky]

THE NUMBERS - DEMOCRATS

Barack Obama, 33 percent

Hillary Rodham Clinton, 29 percent

John Edwards, 20 percent

Bill Richardson, 8 percent

------

OF INTEREST:

Obama has a big edge over Clinton among the 56 percent of Iowa Democrats in this poll who say they are looking for a new direction. Clinton has a huge margin among those who prefer strength and experience. Two-thirds of Edwards' supporters have attended previous caucuses, while more than half of Clinton's and Obama's have not, making Edwards less reliant on first-time attendees. Overall, a third say they may still change their minds about whom to support.

------

The Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted Dec. 13-17 and involved telephone interviews with 652 adults likely to vote in the Iowa caucuses. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[IndianaJones]

1. So Clinton has a modest lead, not bad. nt.

[zanne]

2. WTH are you talking about?

Did you read the numbers. Hillary comes in behind Obama.

[IndianaJones]

5. lol. Obama will need at least ten points to overcome the "embarrassed to be racist" white vote. nt.

[jenmito]

7. lol. Hillary will need at least ten points to overcome the "embarrassed to be sexist" vote. n/t

[IndianaJones]

8. the beauty is...we'll see. I'm from VA....I've seen 10 points in the polls equal less than 1 point.

on election day.

Of course...Robert Byrd is a hero on this board.

[jenmito]

10. Yup, we'll see. Hillary's not exactly a white male, either.

:shrug:

[IndianaJones]

11. so your assertion is that the sexists will trump the racists on election day?

should be interesting. Maybe a huge win for Edwards.

[jenmito]

20. You're the one who doesn't believe the poll.

Not me.

[loveangelc]

14. Wow, I see that's something you're gleeful about? nt

[BL611]

16. Iowa is an open caucus process

so if they were "embarrassed to be racist" over the phone, they will probably do the same thing at their caucus in front of their neighborhood.

[Adelante]

25. I never thought of that

Thanks for mentioning it.

[BringBigDogBack]

Holy shit.

I'm starting to understand the term "Hillbots" a little better on this fine morning, from a variety of posts and posters.

[IndianaJones]

6. at least the username has gotten you this far...nt.

[0007]

12. The fog is lifting & visibility is becoming clear

[Perky]

3. What??????????

LOL

[Frances]

4. I think this poll shows that

Obama, Hillary, or Edwards could win. Iowa, as we all know, is much harder to predict because of their caucus system.

May the best person win!

[jenmito]

9. Edwards 13 points behind Obama??? Wow. If Edwards doesn't WIN Iowa, he's done.

He's practically lived there for the last few years. He should be way ahead of ALL of 'em.

[Stop Cornyn]

15. No, but if Edwards doesn't beat Hillary in Iowa, he might be done. Some Obamaniacs miss the point

that Hillary still has a HUGE lead nationally.

While there is no such thing as a national primary, Hillary's lead in most Ginormous-Tuesday states is reflected in her lead nationally.

If Hillary wins Iowa, neither Obama nor Edwards will be able to stop her momentum given her large leads elsewhere.

If Obama beats Hillary and Edwards comes in third, this presents a risk for Edwards' campaign that the anybody-but-Hillary vote might consolidate with Obama as the candidate who beat her in Iowa.

With that said, I think the most likely result in Iowa is Edwards, Obama, then Hillary.

[jenmito]

19. "Obamaniacs"? And no, I'm not missing any point...

If Edwards doesn't win Iowa, he's done. He had to take matching funds so he can't afford to compete any further and he put all his eggs in Iowa's basket. If he can't win there, where he's been campaigning for several years already, he can't win ANYWHERE and his supporters will more likely go to Obama than Hillary. Hillary being beaten by Obama in Iowa (regardless of Edwards' position) will change the national polls immediately in Obama's favor. Her "inevitability factor" will be gone. Obama's now seen as more electable than Hillary as it IS in the latest poll. IF Hillary wins Iowa and Obama comes in a very close 2nd, he'll still have the money to continue on, unlike Edwards. So Edwards will be finished if he doesn't win Iowa.

[Stop Cornyn]

23. Face it: Michelle Obama was right "'If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it is just a dream." I'm sure that

you believe what you're saying, but Michelle was right.

[jenmito]

24. And Obama said she probably says that in every state-that he has to win it.

She was just trying to portray urgency to get the people to caucus for him. Nothin' wrong with that. What SHOULD she say-"If Obama doesn't win here in Iowa, that's ok, he'll win in the next state"?

[OHdem10]

13. While Polls are fun, something goes screwy in polling just

about this time every Primary and Election.

May I remind you that in 2000. USA Today and others ran polls
just before NH. QWB was supposed to win NH by 22 point lead.
Likewise, GWB was polling a great lead in SC.

GWB lost NH by 20 or so points. He had to stoop to the dirtiest
campaign tactics ever to eek out a win in SC.

The Media was utterly embarassed by their hyping innacurate polls.

Also remember the Media use polls to try to change peoples opions.

It is not beneath them to say So and So is polling high--trying
to get people to give up one candidate and vote for the Media
Choice.

Be wary in these last days.

[BenDavid]

17. calling the same folks usually gets the same results.....bad poll

[AtomicKitten]

18. Good news.

[hayu_lol]

21. My opinion is that this caucus is too close to call at this time...

despite some of the gleeful posts, Edwards is worth roughly 50 million, he could surely write a few checks on his own behalf if he needed to...until a campaign could refill his coffers.

My hunch is that all candidates will stay with the 'race' until after S-tuesday at least. And after that, no matter who is ahead and behind, you can depend on Dennis continuing to try to put the wings back on that poor Eagle.

[AtomicKitten]

22. I am fully into the democratic process.

I only wish the candidates were on an even playing field.