Josh Marshall: How It's Looking to Me (Sorting out the Republican race)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I am sympathetic to Josh's position on this... every time I study the Republican primary race, I conclude that none of them can get the nomination! So that means, to paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, that the Republican nominee will be, no matter how unlikely, one of these clowns.

How It's Looking to Me

I just got back from a week's vacation out of the country on Sunday. And I did my best to clear my head of politics while I was away. So I'm just now getting back in the rhythm of the campaign. And on the Republican side, it still looks like Romney to me. But that's by a by-default logic that applies almost uniquely to this campaign.

Clearly, Romney has had a bad few weeks as Huckabee has rocketed from being Ron Paul's colleague down in the single digits to the leader or near leader in several key states. Hell, he's almost tied with Rudy for the lead nationally. But as we're now seeing day after day with Huckabee, despite the affable manner and the politics that are gaining him huge support within the GOP's evangelical base, the dude just has way too much baggage to get him to the nomination -- letting a bunch of anti-Clinton whacks convince you to let a serial rapist out of prison, all sorts of completely whacked views, wild unpreparedness on foreign policy. And they haven't even gotten to truly nutball ideas he's for like the 'Fair Tax'. I'm not saying it can't happen. But I just think Huckabee's got too much baggage on too many fronts.

Then you have Rudy, of whom I've already said quite a bit. Republican voters are starting to realize that pro-choice wasn't just a policy position for Rudy. He lived a lifestyle as mayor that made it a critical option to have on hand at any given moment. With Huckabee's rise, attention has gone off Rudy's mix of boffo boffing scandals and shady business deals. But there's still so much more to be scrutinized, especially on the latter front, when and if the attention returns.
(snip)

So, all humor aside, despite his campaign's being in the doldrums and facing real danger in Iowa, by process of elimination, it still seems to me that Mitt Romney's the man to be in the GOP.

--Josh Marshall

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/061370.php

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. McCain will over take Romney

I suspect McCain's rise will be slow but inexorable and he will prevail.

[TwilightGardener]

2. I agree with him--I think Hucky is sinking in Iowa, which means Romney

will probably win it--if he wins Iowa, it might give him a few extra points and a little "mo" to beat McCain in NH. Even if he loses to McCain in NH, he may win SC (I doubt McCain will win in SC)--so, yep--Mittens.

[cali]

3. I've been saying it's Grecian Formula Guy for months now

The GOP establishment supports him- particularly as Gramps has shown himself to be such a dud, and McCain's time has past. They hate them some Hucky, as well.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. My (at this point long-standing) view is that McCain will win by default

But it's not an easy race to handicap. McCain has no money, but the pugs are better at top down than we are, and McCain may be the only acceptable compromise candidate to block Huckabee.

[speedoo]

4. I agree with Josh.

But I think the Dem race is much tougher to predict.