It's McCain

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

Take it to the bank. The other three serious candidates for the Republican nomination (Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee) have each had their moment in the klieg lights, and voters have seen a unrepentant crook, an empty suit, and a religious nutjob (respectively). All three melted under the glare of media scrutiny.

John McCain has been in the public eye for nearly forty years. Even though I wouldn't vote for the guy, even his opponents have to admit that he's been a basically honest and competent public servant (unlike Giuliani) and that aside from a few minor issues, he's a guy who stands for something (unlike Romney) and he's not beholden to the religous right (unlike Huckabee).

On that last point, it's the religious conservatives' mistrust of McCain that, while hurting him in the primaries, will be a huge benefit to him in the General Election. Every right-leaning Independent voter who is sick and tired of the fundamentalist agenda can vote for McCain and feel good about it. And in a world where our troops are deployed now and may be again, McCain is a combat veteran and unlike every other candidate from either party, has significant military experience.

It's going to be McCain. And he's going to be damned hard to beat.

[Vincardog]

1. just post the picture of McCain sniffing jr's pit he is toast after the 2000 primary

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

4. I'm sure that photo will make the rounds...

but it's not a deal-breaker. Remember that nearly 30% of the public actually approve of the moron-in-chief.

[Vincardog]

8. That only leaves 70% who are aware or not brain dead

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

9. I know -- it's the "cognitively impaired" ones that will decide the election

Sad, eh?

[yurbud]

18. that was one of the saddest pictures I've ever seen

[NewYorkerfromMass]

40. That has nothing to do with McCain

and his appeal to millions. And unfortunately, McCain was joined by 62 million other American pit sniffers in 2004.

[Vincardog]

45. How many of those 62 million were electronically generated? Inquiring minds want to know

[existentialist]

2. It may be McCain,

But McCain has some skeletons in his closet too.


1) Many conservatives and republicans will not forgive him for the one thing that I think he tried to do right--introduce some sensible ideas into the immigration debate--not that I necessarily accept his proposals there either, but at least he tried to have an informed and intelligent debate on the issue.

2) His stance on the war. The right wing will support him on that, if with misgivings because of his stance on the first issue, but the right wing is not a majority, and the position is wrong.

3) He has alienated a large chunk of his base. Arizona Republicans can scarcely stand him anymore, and the last I knew his fund raising was still pretty meager.

4) The religious wing of the Republican party still supports Huckabee--strongly, and if Huckabee is not the nominee, then many of them will have a hard time voting for any Republican.

5) Your gloss over notwithstanding, there are a good many inconsistencies, flip flops, and lies in McCain's political history that won't be that hard to dig up. (Of course, whether anyone can get any media coverage for them is another question).

6) His cozying up to Bush probably won't help him either.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

5. Those skeletons...

Haven't hurt McCain in his four senatorial campaigns -- the last one a 77% blowout (and those Arizonans are tired of him?). If McCain is the nominee, he will get the religious conservative vote the same way the Democrats will get the African American vote (like either group is going to switch sides).

And if Bush can get elected with cocaine and alcohol abuse, desertion during wartime, and trading Sammy Sosa to the Cubs, McCain isn't sweating.

He's going to be a formidable opponent.

[existentialist]

12. I'm not saying he isn't formidable.

I'm just saying he can be beat.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

17. It's going to take an effort the likes of which we've not seen before...

nt

[TwilightGardener]

20. Oh Noes!! Curl into a ball and wait for doooooom! Game over, man!

I will remind you that he's really, really old and not 100% with-it. We'll be running against his lingering 2000 aura--he's not especially impressive now. He hasn't won a single Repub debate. In fact, most of the time I forgot he was onstage--and so did the pundits.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

25. Wow. That was really not the point...

Reagan was an old guy, too, in the early stages of Alzheimers, and we didn't exactly mop the floor with him, now did we? And the right wing has had twenty years since then to perfect their Swift Boat tactics. If you think this election is going to be a cakewalk for the Democratic nominee, you're going to be very disappointed.

And as for the pundits with whom you hold so much stock, I would point out that McCain is rising in the polls every day, despite the pundits writing him off several months ago. Have you learned nothing from the past eight years? Pundits are almost always wrong.

[Kat45]

23. If he picks Huckabee for VP, he'll get the fundies voting for him.

Those two on the ticket is a scary thought. Those two in the White House is a scarier thought. And scarier still, when one thinks of McCain's age, which could result in the veep becoming the prez.
:scared:

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

27. Which is why Huckabee won't be anywhere near this ticket

The guy is poison, as is Giuliani. Of the current candidates, I would say that Romney would be the best choice

Colin Powell
Olympia Snow
Susan Collins
Mike Bloomberg
Jim Leach
Jim Gilmore
Chuck Hagel
Mark Sanford
Elizabeth Dole
George Pataki
Mike Castle

All have strong appeal to centrist voters. Remember how Bush won in 2000? A uniter, not a divider? If I were McCain, I would get Hagel to be on the ticket -- he has the gravitas of Colin Powell without the stink of Iraq. Mike Castle would also be a good choice.

[gateley]

3. I heard a psychic say it would be McCain/Giuliani, but that Clinton/Edwards would win.

So if it DOES come to those two teams being the nominees, we have an inside scoop who will be in the WH come 2009. :7

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

7. Well. Thank goodness THAT'S settled...

:)

[femmocrat]

6. I agree. It's *his turn* and he didn't spend 7 years wiping *'s butt for nothin'.

I'm not sure how hard he would be to beat though. He does have his disadvantages as someone else listed above.

[Middle finga]

10. Even though he's damn near a hundred years old

Can you imagine how he would look after 8 years, Jeez.

[pipoman]

11. I made this and posted it earlier today in another thread

I don't think it is outside of the realm of possibility.

[rocknrush]

13. McCain Lieberman

New guy here...Hi everybody!

Funny pic....what's Mcain doing? Never Mind

[rep the dems]

14. I'm still going with Multiple Choice Romney, and I still think he'll lose. nt

[BenDavid]

15. Iowa and NH and SC. If he breaks out in NH & SC good bet., but

if it is McCain then all he has going is his foreign relations and HRC can match him. She may not have as many years experience but you see where all these votes she cast would if it is McCain pay off.....Plus, once HRC goes after the economy and all she needs say is McCain with all the other senate republicans voted against her husbands economic plan and list all its accomplishments and there she has him....HRC can beat McCain and When we went to school they taught us that George Washington chopped down a cherry tree saying "I can not tell a lie". We also were told that Lincoln walked 10 miles to pay back a penny. Both stories are just political fables.

Now we are told that John McCain was a tortured POW. I wonder about McCain's history as a POW in light of him caving into Bush allowing him to keep torturing prisoners in secret torture camps. I think McCain's story is also a fable.

McCain is the son of an admiral and it is known that he got special treatment when he was supposedly held in North Vietnam as a POW. I think that maybe McCain either wasn't really tortured like the real troops were because if he were he wouldn't have caved in to let Bush do the same sort of thing that the Commies did to him.

Any senator who supports legalized torture is committing treason to the Constitution. Torture is an evil practice and America should not embrace it.

Ben David

[saltpoint]

16. In a land of munchkins, nearly anyone is a giant. There's no competition in

the GOP field. As the phrase goes, it's an orgy of eunuchs. Ain't nothin' happenin'.

McCain could go all the way, agreed, but he's one of the flawed 7 in their field. Maybe it will be a case of his proving to voters that his flaws are less grievous than the other 6's flaws.

The fundie nutjobs seem to be aligning with Huckabible. Romney's constituency, such as it is, appears to be dwindling, but not nearly as quickly as Half-Dead Fred's constituency, whoever they may be.

Giuliani's "I'm the hero of 9/11" boast is growing fainter by the hour.

Paul is a niche candidate and a bit of a racist as well.

Duncan Hunter has the wit of a basement door, to steal Reynolds Price's great line.

But McCain has some explaining to do on his support of the Iraq War, support of the surge of the Iraq War, and his from-day-one support of a failed presidency. I'm not sure that's any kind of platform from which to win the White House. And it makes him vulnerable, especially if we nominate a fairly clearly anti-Bush candidate.

Huckabee ought not to be polling in the numbers he's polling right now. IMO he can only head downward from here, and if my guess is right, his Republican competition will be taking the lead in that process.

[TwilightGardener]

19. Interesting McCain flip-flop--he condemned John Kerry for running

on his Vietnam experiences...and now McCain is making political ads ALL ABOUT his Vietnam/POW experiences. He's sickening. I used to have some respect for him, but he's just so nakedly power-hungry.

[BenDavid]

21. wienerdoggie, you are 100% correct. Great post!

[TwilightGardener]

22. Thanks, but I can't take credit--read it on TPM:

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/12/flashback_mccain_was_against_candidates_using_vietnam_experience_before_he_was_for_it.php

[DesertRat]

24. McCain is a sellout and tasteless pig

And let's not forget about the cruel joke he made about a young Chelsea Clinton. I won't repeat it here, but the story is at this link:
http://www.salon.com/news/1998/06/25newsb.html

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

26. ...who does better than any other Republican in head-to-head polling

against all the Democratic candidates.

Name-calling on an online discussion board is not going to decide the next election.

Be prepared to work your ass off.

[DesertRat]

28. I will have an uphill battle here in McCain's home state.

But I can remind people from other states about his tasteless comments as well as his being a founding member of the Keating 5 among other things.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

33. It's been nearly twenty years since the Keating Five

You might as well bring up the Norman Invasion. If voters haven't held him accountable by now, don't expect it to happen next year.

[Timmy5835]

29. Never happen...here's why

He's too old and pro war. 75% of the population is anti war. He will get little or no crossover votes from liberal and progressive voters. The GOP voting base is NOT pumped-up for any of their candidates including McCain. Expect a lower then usual GOP turnout at the polls. On the other hand, the Dems are pissed. Expect them to turn out in droves. So, no McCain or ANY other GOP candidate does not concern me.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

36. He'll be 72 in November

which would be a year younger than Reagan was in 1984. And he's enormously popular with moderate and swing voters, and the GOP base will come back to him (especially if Hillary is our nominee -- she will be a motivating factor for them).

And we were not pissed in 2004? I'm pretty sure we were. We turned out in droves and still lost.

[rosepetal31]

30. Romney-

It's Romney, no two ways about it, I think in the end Mcain's record won't really matter, his age is against him. GuilianI is too crooked and Huckabee is, put it this way, FORGET IT! That leaves Romney, and I highly doubt people will be deterred by the fact he's Mormon. People could care less,

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

39. I might agree with you...

But I think Romney's inability to take a clear stand on any issue (and then maintain it for more than fifteen minutes) is going to be a mortal wound. Especially with the Republican base, who don't exactly embrace the whole notion of creative thinking.

[calteacherguy]

31. I'm in complete agreement. It is going to be McCain. nt

[phillyliberal]

32. who knows

McCain is a formidable candidate... however I just dont think he has any momentum. If he does well in NH which I think is his target, he may be able to do well in SC too. But I just dont think he has it anymore. Hes a fossil.

[Timmy5835]

34. THat was then...this is NOW

McCain's chances have come and gone. He's pro-war. That kills him right there. Put a fork in him, he's done.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

37. Which of the Republican candidates have denounced the war?

Being pro-war isn't a deal-breaker with the GOP. And of the three major Democratic candidates, all have declined to "promise" a withdrawal of all troops by 2013.

That bright and shining line that you imagine isn't nearly as bright and shining as you think it is.

[BlueStater]

35. Then bring him on

He's an old gasbag and the country is fed up with his war-supporting bullshit.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

38. NIce Bravado

Since 1950, the Democrats are 5-9 in Presidental races. I'll be that confident on November 5th.

[dugggy]

41. But will he live past 2008?

and that makes his VP choice critical.

[Timmy5835]

42. The ONLY chance McCain has ANY chance of winning

McCain has to get crossover votes from Liberal, Moderate, and Progressive voters. In the present atmosphere I don't see that happening.

[flying rabbit]

43. A grandfatherly type war hero

Sure he has some gaffes, but that just proves he's real :puke:. I could see them trying to spin him into the White House. Repubs love that hero worship. With the right VP and handlers - he could be electable. I think his greatest strength is his lack of substance. The goop is ready to be molded into a figurehead for the GOP.

[HughMoran]

44. Hard to beat?

Hardly, the man doesn't have the stamina for this. He will wilt like he always does.