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Would Edwards remain under-funded if he wins Iowa?

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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:29 PM
Original message
Would Edwards remain under-funded if he wins Iowa?
If Edwards won Iowa and Obama did really badly, it seems there must be a ton of maxed out Obama contributors who would be free to donate to Edwards.

Given Ron Paul's example of what can be done in 24 hours on the internet, it seems that Edwards could move to being competitive (not on par, but in the game) with Clinton quite quickly.

Are there any matching funds/campaign finance issues that would prevent Edwards from raising all the money he can during the primaries? Does that money get matched? (I know very little about campaign financing regulations)
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laureloak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:30 PM
Response to Original message
1. Absolutely not. Besides, JRE places his money well.
Waste not, want not, ya know.
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asdjrocky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:31 PM
Response to Original message
2. If he prevails in Iowa, the money will roll in. n/t
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:33 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Given the donation limits, I would think his $$$ potential is higher than Obama or HC going forward
Many of their contributors must be maxed out.
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NYCGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. He is, though, limited to $50 million in expenditures until after the Democratic
Edited on Tue Dec-25-07 09:41 PM by NYCGirl
convention.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/09/27/edwards.public.financing/index.html

In order to qualify for so-called "matching funds," the public funding program for the primary season, the FEC requires candidates to demonstrate nationwide support by raising $5000 in 20 different states with no individual contribution to exceed $250, a task which poses little difficulty for major candidates like Edwards.

Once qualified, the federal government will match the first $250 from new contributors, provided Edwards adheres to a $50 million national spending limit, as well as spending limits in each state. Candidates may not receive more than about $21 million in matching funds.


Edited to add: And that $50 million includes staff expenditures as well as advertising, etc.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:42 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Good to know. 50 mil sounds like plenty
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NYCGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:44 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Until the end of August? With the GOP free to raise as much as they want?
No, it's not much at all.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:47 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. In terms of being competitive with HC, not with the RNC
I view the public finance thing as a non-trivial problem with both Edwards and Biden.

I'm just thinking in terms of being on the air before super tuesday
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NYCGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #13
18. Yeah, but if he gets beyond that, he's pretty screwed. NT
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MonkeyFunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 10:20 PM
Response to Reply #2
22. doesn't matter how much rolls in
he's limited to spending 50 million until after the convention.
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TeamJordan23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:32 PM
Response to Original message
3. An Edwards win in Iowa will likely hand Hillary the nomination. nm
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Jim Sagle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:34 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. DLC hogwash!
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asdjrocky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:35 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. That's baloney.
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TeamJordan23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 10:21 PM
Response to Reply #6
23. My reason: Edwards is not running competitive in other states outside Iowa.
Regardless of what happens in Iowa, I still see an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama finish in NH and SC. Even with a bump from Iowa, I don't think he will have enough to take any of those two states. The reason is that many loyalists to Obama and Clinton will not switch their vote because they will still believe their candidate can win.

Edwards, with a solo win in Iowa, cannot realistically be expected to win big on Super Tuesday.

I don't even think its even a money issue. Huck has shown you can go a long way with limited money. But I just don't think Edwards has much support outside the state that he has been living in for the past 4 years.

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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. The MSM and momentum would help him with NH, SC, and Nevada. It's a tough.
journey, but I think it is possible.
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asdjrocky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-26-07 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #23
29. You probably won't even look at this-
I try to never state my opinion as fact. For me, well, since I don't know everything, I do a little research.

Introducing, Edwards By The Numbers....

1: Number of presidential candidates actually born in SOUTH CAROLINA – John Edwards. He won the state by 15 points in 2004.

4: Number of television ads John Edwards has been up on the air with in SOUTH CAROLINA – his home state – since being the first to go up on the air in the state in mid- November.

5: Percentage of IOWA caucus-goers polled in November 2003 who supported John Edwards before he went on to finish second with 32 percent of the vote in the actual caucus.

6: Number of percentage points gained by John Edwards in the latest McClatchy poll of SOUTH CAROLINA voters, putting him at a very competitive 18%.

7: Number of percentage points separating John Edwards from frontrunner Hillary Clinton in the latest Clemson University Palmetto Poll of SOUTH CAROLINA voters.

7: Number of television ads John Edwards has gone up on the air with in NEW HAMPSHIRE, since launching his first major television ad buy on November 3rd.

7: Number of states where the campaign has organized “Road Trip for Edwards” volunteers to come to NEW HAMPSHIRE for canvassing, including the FEBRUARY 5TH

STATES of NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK, CONNECTICUT, RHODE ISLAND and MASSACHUSETTS.

8: Number of television ads John Edwards has gone up on the air with in IOWA since launching his first major television ad buy on November 1st.

10: Number of organizers John Edwards had on the ground in NEW HAMPSHIRE in 2003-2004. This cycle, we have eight times the number of organizers that we had in New Hampshire last cycle.

12: Number of state SEIU COUNCILS, representing more than 1.1 million working families, which have endorsed John Edwards for president, including those in the critical early states of IOWA and NEW HAMPSHIRE.

16: Number of field offices Edwards has in the state of NEW HAMPSHIRE.

17: Number of visits John Edwards has made to the state of NEVADA in 2007 – more than any other major candidate.

22: Number of states that will hold primary contests on FEBRUARY 5th .

22: Number of FEBRUARY 5th STATES where Edwards has state political advisers working on his behalf.

22: Number of FEBRUARY 5th STATES in which the Edwards campaign has organized statewide grassroots organizing calls this month.

23: Number of days Edwards has spent in his home state of SOUTH CAROLINA – more than any other Democratic candidate.

25: Number of field offices Edwards has in the state of IOWA.

27: Number of chapters of the Edwards campaign’s local service arm organized in the state of SOUTH CAROLINA.

34: Number of days John Edwards has spent in the state of NEW HAMPSHIRE during the 2008 primary campaign.

75: Percentage of NEVADA Democratic caucus-goers contacted by the campaign who identify themselves as “undecided,” which the campaign believes works in our favor.

80: Number of paid staff Edwards has in the state of NEW HAMPSHIRE in 2007.

99: Number of IOWA counties.

99: Number of IOWA counties where John Edwards visited – and took questions from Iowans – this year (and also in 2004). He was the first Democrat to do so.

99: Number IOWA counties where Edwards has announced steering committees, reaffirming the strength of his statewide organization. Again, he was the first Democrat to do so.

117: Number of public events John Edwards has held in the state of NEW HAMPSHIRE in 2007.

150: Number of paid staff Edwards has in the state of IOWA. (Note: Total number is greater than 150.)

1,000: Number of caucus trainings the Edwards campaign has conducted in the state of NEVADA.

1,690: Number of One Corps chapters, the local service arm of the Edwards campaign, across the nation, including 87 in WISCONSIN, 79 in OHIO and 74 in TEXAS.

6,000: Number of active and retired members of the United Steelworkers union in SOUTH CAROLINA, many of whom are actively campaigning and canvassing for John Edwards in the state.

8,000: Number of Communication Workers of America in ARIZONA who have endorsed John Edwards.

10,000: Number of Caucus for Priorities members in IOWA who have pledged to caucus for John Edwards.

11,000: Number of doors knocked on as part of Edwards’ “Bold Solutions to Your Issues” statewide canvass in NEVADA on December 15th.

28,000: Number of working families in NEVADA represented by the unions in the state that have endorsed John Edwards, including the Carpenters, Steelworkers, Transport Workers and local Communications Workers of America.

45,000: Number of UNITE HERE CHICAGO and MIDWEST REGION Joint Board members who have endorsed John Edwards.

96,031: Number of Transport Workers union members in FEBRUARY 5TH STATES who have endorsed John Edwards, including those in NEW YORK (53,729), OKLAHOMA (9,026), CALIFORNIA (8,860) and NEW JERSEY (7,574).

130,000: Number of phone calls Edwards campaign volunteers in NEW HAMPSHIRE made to voters in the state last week alone.

220,000: Number of NEW HAMPSHIRE voters in the 2004 primary.

235,000: Number of doors Edwards campaign volunteers have knocked on in NEW HAMPSHIRE.

330,044: Total number of dollars Edwards had raised in the state of SOUTH CAROLINA at the end of the 3rd quarter fundraising deadline – more than any other Democratic candidate.

656,000: Number of working families represented by SEIU CALIFORNIA, which has enthusiastically endorsed John Edwards and campaigned widely on his behalf.

3.2 million: Number of union members in states all across the country represented by the labor unions who have endorsed John Edwards for president.

Momentum from strong finished in early states: PRICELESS
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Yukari Yakumo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-26-07 01:22 AM
Response to Reply #29
30. 1/2: The number of states that show Edwards with the lead.
A tie with HRC in Oklahoma based on a very ancient poll is all he has been able to muster. He doesn't even lead NC, his own home state.
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2rth2pwr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-26-07 02:06 AM
Response to Reply #29
31. What percent of the vote in South Carolina would John
have received if he had run for Senate last time around?
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Andy823 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. I go for a load of crap
That's just BS and you know it. Hillary supporters keep saying she will "let" Edwards win because Edwards is easier to beat, and Obama supporters keep saying it will give Hillary the nomination. All it will do is show the country that "money" isn't what makes a nominee, it's the "issues", something Edwards has taken on, come up with plans for, and has stood up taken the "issues" to the people. And regardless of what anyone says, the "PEOPLE" are who will decide this election, not a bunch of rumors, lies, and misleading statements by the Obama camp, or the Hillary camp!

When Edwards wins in Iowa, it will be because he is the best person for the nomination, and that will carry him on to win the nomination!!!!
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asdjrocky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. Hey Andy, good to see ya.
Another reason he'll win, and go all the way?

Money Don't Vote


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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #12
19. You DO remember Edwards originally chose to FOREGO matching funds, don't you?
He likes to pretend he took matching funds for moral reasons, but it was really because he didn't raise enough money to remain competitive with Obama and Hillary. He's a phony.
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lisainmilo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-26-07 03:32 AM
Response to Reply #12
32. Edwards will be the most difficult to beat
He is for the people, no strings attached. No corporation owns him, no corporate favors does he have to give into. Hillary can't keep it straight. She blames, flip flops, why? She is owned.

2002:http://opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.asp?CID=N00000019&cycle=2002

2002:http://opensecrets.org/politicians/indus.asp?CID=N00000019&cycle=2002

2004:http://opensecrets.org/politicians/indus.asp?CID=N00000019&cycle=2004

2004: http://opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.asp?CID=N00000019&cycle=2004

2006:http://opensecrets.org/politicians/indus.asp?CID=N00000019&cycle=2006

2006: http://opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.asp?CID=N00000019&cycle=2006

and this race?

2008: http://opensecrets.org/pres08/indus.asp?id=N00000019&cycle=2008

2008 : http://opensecrets.org/pres08/contrib.asp?id=N00000019&cycle=2008


A Whole Lotta Money....A Whole Lotta Favors........Only problem the favors are and have not been in my favor

I want someone who represents my interests, not the corporate interests who by the way are running the this country into the ground as evidenced by the declining dollar, loss of jobs, housing crisis, and basically being owned by China and Saudi Arabia!


Edwards a young FDR! A president for the people and by the people....I want a strong America
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #3
17. Not if Obama comes in 2nd. Then it's Obama's to lose. n/t
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:37 PM
Response to Original message
7. In an interview, I heard Edwards...
Edited on Tue Dec-25-07 09:38 PM by TwoSparkles
...talking about money and campaigning.

I'm sorry that I don't remember which Sunday talk show it was or who
was interviewing Edwards, but I remember Edwards saying, "Well, as you
know, if you win Iowa, the money comes pouring in faster than you can
count it."

If he wins Iowa, it sounds like money (or lack thereof) seems to be
a problem that is quickly resolved.

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maximusveritas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:41 PM
Response to Original message
9. It would not get matched
Edited on Tue Dec-25-07 09:41 PM by maximusveritas
The FEC has to approve it and it would be unable to do so once the recess appointments run out at the end of the year.
Still, I don't think money will be a problem in NH. The problem will be whether he has enough base support there to be competitive after a bounce. I don't think he does.
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disndat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:49 PM
Response to Original message
14. If JRE wins in Iowa,
the money will come pouring in. If Edwards gets more than 15% and the ones that get less, according to the caucus rules, then the dream scenario would be, that in the second round the likelihood would be that the supporters of the lesser candidates will vote for JRE, rather then Obama, and even less likely, for Clinton.
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2hip Donating Member (350 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 09:50 PM
Response to Original message
15. Momentum means money
An IA wins gets him both!


Edwards '08 tees!
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 10:10 PM
Response to Original message
20. Bush had $268 million for the primaries in 2004 and Kerry had $225 million
Edited on Tue Dec-25-07 10:24 PM by dkf
If you think $50 million is enough...

At the end of the 3rd quarter, Edwards had already spent $17 million with Hillary at $40 million and Obama at $44 million.

Here was the spending for 2004 primary:

Bush* $268,861,529
Clark $24,665,437
Dean $50,203,405
Edwards $29,250,811
Gephardt $20,638,424
Kerry* $224,798,215
Kucinich $10,987,444
LaRouche $9,619,728
Lieberman $18,310,585
Moseley Braun $587,075
Sharpton $686,888

http://www.fec.gov/press/press2005/20050203pressum/20050203pressum.html

Unless you think his pledge to take public financing was entirely disingenuous...

IMO, the man will be buried. We will have shot ourselves in the foot.
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MonkeyFunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 10:19 PM
Response to Original message
21. Yes
if he's taking public funds, there are spending limits tied to that.

He'd be hobbled until after the convention.
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TeamJordan23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
24. What place was Kerry running in New Hampshire pre-Iowa caucus? nm
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killbotfactory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 10:33 PM
Response to Original message
25. He'll be fine for the primaries, but would face limits in the general election
hence the 527s popping up to support him.
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waiting for hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. The public financing
was only for the primaries - he'd be wide open for the GE.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-25-07 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. no. you've got it exactly backward.. He'll be fine
in the general, when both the repub and dem nominee will take public funding. And if he's the party nominee we'll know no later than the end of February. He's already spent something in the range of $25 million- and that's a modest estimate. He can only spend $50 million until the convention at the end of August. He'll run out of money by April or May, leaving 4 months where he'll have virtually no money. And it's not just ads. How does he pay staff and rent on offices? 427s can run issue ads but they can't coordinate with the campaign. If Edwards gets it, the repukes will outspend him by 10 to 1 up until the convention.
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MonkeyFunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-26-07 03:34 AM
Response to Reply #25
33. Nope
just the opposite.

Say this thing is settled on Feb. 5th? Edwards might have 20 million left with which to campaign from then until the end of August. And 20 mill is generous.

Meanwhile, his Republican opponent has essentially unlimited funds with which to campaign against him. It'll be a slaughter.
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killbotfactory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-26-07 03:51 AM
Response to Reply #25
34. Oops, I meant, until the general
after the primary is decided and until the general election, which is quite a few months.
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Catchawave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-26-07 09:45 AM
Response to Original message
35. The Edwards campaign is fine
and has been budgeting wisely to be competitive for the long haul. He'll only use PubFi in the General if the GOP candidate does also.

Remember, he's been outspent by millions in Iowa, and still very competitive.

"This is an election, not an auction" :D
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-26-07 09:51 AM
Response to Reply #35
36. In a fair world, he would be financially OK, but he's not.
If he gets the nomination, he's limited to $50 million until the end of August. The repuke nominee, facing no such limitations will outspend him by a factor of 5+. 527s can take up some of the slack, but he'll still face a real obstacle.
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