Josh Marshall: The Big Question (re: Iowa Trendlines)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Big Question

Looking ahead to next week and the beginning of the primary/caucus roller-coaster, a lot depends on whether this ARG poll released the day before Christmas was an outlier or the first to spot the trend.

ARG's been doing increasingly frequent polls of both Iowa and NH (I think they're actually located in NH). Their poll ending Nov. 14th, had Hillary up 27% to 21%. The next on Nov. 29th had Obama up 27% to 25%. On Dec. 19th, it was Hillary up 29% to 25%. And in the poll that finished on the 23rd, Hillary had opened up a 15 point lead, 34% to 19%.

So a late November surge for Obama, followed by a stalemate and then a big breakout by Hillary.

As far as I can tell, ARG is the only polling operation showing this so far. But they were also, as far as I can see at least, the most recent in the field -- polling up until the 23rd. And the clear trend line up until then was a steady move toward Obama with him opening up a very slender but measurable lead.

And if that's not enough, add one more issue: polls over the holidays are notoriously wobbly because a lot more people aren't home and, I assume, it's difficult to construct a model that takes into account the demographic profile of those most and least likely to hit the road for Christmas.

So, I'll be looking for the next crop of polls, which I figure will come out tomorrow afternoon, to see whether this is really where things are headed.

--Josh Marshall

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/061987.php