New Iowa Poll: Obama 29%, Edwards 29%, Clinton 28%, Its not gonna get any closer than this folks!

[MadBadger]

Obama has dropped four points since the last poll, while Clinton and Edwards has both gone up 4-5 points. Looks like this race is too close to call going into the caucus (just as we expected)

DES MOINES -- A new Iowa caucus poll from Lee Enterprises newspapers shows the Democratic race is a virtual three-way tie, with John Edwards rising to tie Barack Obama for the lead and Hillary Clinton rising to just one point behind.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee remains in the lead with a 7-point edge over Mitt Romney.

The poll, conducted with 500 likely caucus goers from each party on Dec. 26 and 27, showed Edwards and Obama tied with 29 percent to lead Democrats, followed by Clinton with 28 percent. Bill Richardson was fourth with 7 percent. Joe Biden was fifth with 3 percent. Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich both had 1 percent and 2 percent were undecided.

For Republicans, Huckabee leads with 34 percent, followed by Romney with 27 percent. Fred Thompson is a distant third with 11 percent, followed by a three-way tie for fourth between Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Ron Paul, with 8 points each. Duncan Hunter had 1 percent and 3 percent were undecided.

The poll, which has a margin or error of plus or minus 4.5 percent, was commissioned by Lee Enterprises and conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000.

There is plenty of room for shifts in the final days before the Jan. 3 caucuses, with 19 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans saying they are likely or very likely to change their minds.

http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2007/12/28/news/latest_news/37d0c625226b8b8a862573bf005d9dff.txt

[MNDemNY]

1. More good numbers for JRE, they should be happy.

[cali]

2. It couldn't be any closer.

There's really no way to predict the outcome. (not that that has stopped me)

[Frances]

3. I've been saying all along that I couldn't predict the outcome

[Drunken Irishman]

11. I think when the Des Moines Register releases its polls the day before, there will be an indication.

Even if it's just minimal.

[MadBadger]

12. I agree, apparently they are considered most accurate

[Drunken Irishman]

13. They predicted the '04 finish in eerily fashion.

I was a Dean supporter back then and recall nervously refreshing their front page to get the numbers, then they were leaked and I saw Dean was 3rd, behind Edwards and the eventual winner, Kerry. Sure enough, that's how they finished.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-01-18-iowa-poll_x.htm

[rocktivity]

4. It's ALWAYS been too close to call

It's been Hillary and the corporate media who have been trying to convince us otherwise!

:headbang:
rocknation

[Frances]

16. Then, why has Hillary received more negative publicity

than any other candidate?

I haven't made up my mine who I'll vote for, but I get tired of fact-less statements against any candidate.

[Pirate Smile]

5. I'd just remind people of Pollster.com's analysis of polling trends around Holidays and

this poll was done on December 26th and 27th.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/polling_on_the_dark_side_of_th.php

[MadBadger]

6. Thats all very true, and I think the polling problems help Obama

With his support trending younger, I think they have a better chance of being out of town.

[Adelante]

7. And any Iowa poll taken before the Caucus date still falls in holiday season

None of them can be relied on.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Look out for the DM Register poll, 'cause I think that will be the most accurate.

They called it in 2004 and I think they'll call it this time.

[balantz]

8. Let's not forget to factor in second choice candidate numbers

which from what I understand could put Edwards in the lead.

[polichick]

9. That's what I heard! nt

[MadBadger]

10. I'm not sure if this poll takes into account second choice numbers

So you cant just assume off of what another poll may say.

[balantz]

15. I wrote to the column and the response back

was that the second choice numbers were not included.

[Guaranteed]

17. Edwards is going to win. He just has the strongest support. nt