Dem Race All About Turnout: The Democratic race in Iowa, meanwhile, is essentially a three-way tie; just two points separate the three front-runners. In the poll, it's Edwards 24%, Clinton 23%, and Obama 22% -- followed by Richardson at 12% and Biden at 8%. Three weeks ago, it was Clinton 27%, Obama 25%, and Edwards 21%. Although the percentages in it show it to be a tossup, the poll suggests that turnout could decide the contest. According to the survey, Obama leads Edwards and Clinton among first-time caucus-goers, 31%-22%-21%. Among veteran caucus-goers, it's Edwards 25%, Clinton 24%, and Obama 18%. This suggests that a heavy turnout -- including many first-timers -- could greatly benefit Obama; a lighter turnout probably would benefit Edwards and (to a lesser degree) Clinton. Another important factor in the Dem contest is the battle for second choice (if a candidate doesn't clear the 15% viability threshold). In the poll, Edwards gets the most second-choice support, and when Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich backers are realigned among the top three Dems, the poll has Edwards over Obama and Clinton, 36%-26%-26%.
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