MSNBC Iowa Poll: Edwards 36% Clinton 26% Obama 26%

[Herman Munster]

This may be the best estimate right now of what will happen out of any poll as it specifically reallots the unviable votes of Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich among the top candidates.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/12/30/539084.aspx

Another important factor in the Dem contest is the battle for second choice (if a candidate doesn’t clear the 15% viability threshold). In the poll, Edwards gets the most second-choice support, and when Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich backers are realigned among the top three Dems, the poll has Edwards over Obama and Clinton, 36%-26%-26%.

[FreakinDJ]

1. Whoop - there it is

Whoop - there it is
Whoop - there it is
Whoop - there it is

[hayu_lol]

4. Gonna be interesting when we move this 'happening' over to NH...

Numbers now are virtually meaningless. Good to see some movement in the bottom tier.

Wonder how long after the caucus closes the first firm numbers come out?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Those Numbers Are Much Different Than Zogby's Numbers With Second Choice Figures Added In

Only one can be correct...

[VarnettaTuckpocket]

3. Neato

I would've been happy with a Hillary victory, but if Edwards has a serious shot, I'm even happier with that. Hillary needs to still come in 2nd though, in case Edwards can't maintain his lead.

[Renew Deal]

7. None have to be correct.

I haven't seen any other polling yet today, but there's no reason to believe anyone is right. I see different numbers every time I log into DU. ;)

[Andy823]

20. I have seen several polls today

This is the second one with Edwards ahead, and the one with him ahead by the most. One other one had Hillary ahead and Obama and Edwards pretty much tied for second, the other had Obama ahead Hillary second and Edwards third.

Now I watched CSPAN this morning, and Mr.Zogby was explaining his polls. His comment about the "second" choice, had Edwards as the best in postion to win. His poll had Edwards third, but those who voted for second choice had Edwards on top by a pretty good lead.

I guess the only way we will really find out is when the voting is all over and the numbers are in.

[AzDar]

5. The United States of America needs JRE right now.

Period.:patriot:

[itsrobert]

6. INTERESTING FACT

*** Other interesting findings: Edwards has the highest fav/unfav score (73%-11%) among the Dem front-runners, while Clinton has the worst (59%-19%).

[BeatleBoot]

10. That is good news!!!

Edwards is my 1st choice.

[Glimmer of Hope]

8. Wow. Thursday is going to be an exciting day.

[balantz]

9. I'm gettin' so excited!

I can hardly sleep at night!

[calteacherguy]

41. I find warm milk helps. nt

[balantz]

44. Thanks! I'll try that

:hi:

[BeatleBoot]

11. That's the right Vector, Victor!

Music to my ears!

[Yukari Yakumo]

12. Nice try at a distortion.

The real numbers:

Edwards 24%
Clinton 23%
Obama 22%

It seems highly odd he'd get support from Biden, Richardson, and Dodd backers.

[snowbear]

13. LOL ... now this is funny! Aya claiming Herman is distorting a poll !!

Yello.

Earth to Aya ... Herman is your candidate's biggest supporter here.

Well. One of them anyway.

[Herman Munster]

17. I got two horses in Iowa.

I obviously want my girl to win but if Edwards wins too, I'm fine with that.

ABB.

Anybody But Barack.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Would Be Happy With A Edwards Or Clinton Nomination

The way I see it a win for Edwards is a loss for Obama and a second place finish for Obama is worse than a third place finish for Clinton...She's not the one who has been saying Iowa is her Stalingrad...That's Barack and Michelle Obama...Obama will be crippled by a IA loss...Hillary will be wounded...

[Yuugal]

33. link please

"She's not the one who has been saying Iowa is her Stalingrad"

Did he really say that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. That Was Hyperbole...I'm Sorry

I believe she said that "if we lose Iowa the campaign was just a dream." The campaign, of course, has backed away from it...

[Yuugal]

42. I googled the phrase

"if we lose Iowa the campaign was just a dream."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/09/27/michelle-obama-if-barack-doesnt-win-iowa-its-just-a-dream/

September 27, 2007
Michelle Obama: 'If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it's just a dream'
Posted: 06:44 PM ET
Barack and Michelle Obama in Iowa last month.
Michelle Obama: 'If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it is just a dream'
DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) — Michelle Obama told a crowd in eastern Iowa Wednesday night that if her husband, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, doesn't place first in the Hawkeye State then "it is just a dream."

"Iowa will make the difference," Mrs. Obama said. "If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it is just a dream. If we win Iowa, then we can move to the world as it should be."

Then we can move to the world as it should be? Creepy comment.

[snowbear]

22. Since when?

I've only seen you pushing one horse over the past umpteen months..

And boy did you beat that horse into the ground!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Herman Should Be Applauded For His Zealous Advocacy

We can all use a devoted friend and advocate like him...

[Herman Munster]

27. why thank you

That's very kind. I think we sometimes forget that we are all on the same team here. After the primaries, we'll all lick our wounds and fight like hell for whoever the nominee is.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Why Did You Choose That As A Handle

Fred Gwynne rocked...He was great as the judge in My Cousin Vinnie...

[Herman Munster]

29. yeah fred gwynne was awesome

I've always loved the munsters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. He Was A Good Natured Type

Lots of good sitcoms in the sixties... I lived across the street from my elementary school so I would go home for lunch and watch Bewitched....

Bewitched, Batman, Bonanza, Lancer, Medical Center, Superman reruns... Wow...

[Herman Munster]

32. yup lots of good memories

I always had a thing for blondes my whole life because of Barbara Eden in I Dream of Jeannie. :P

[surfermaw]

37. You got it Herman Munster

Fight like what ever it take to win in NOvember 2008

[Herman Munster]

26. I've posted before that an Edwads win is good for Hillary

as I don't think Edwards has the organization and money to beat her down the road. But if it so happens that Edwards wins the nomination, I can live with that. I just think for Hillary's purposes the longer the field is muddled and the anti-hillary forces don't consolidate around one candidate, the better it is for her.

There's a reason Bill Clinton has been talking up Edwards the last few weeks. They know they can beat him.

[KingofNewOrleans]

14. That's what the poll says

When you realign 2nd choice selections by Biden, Richardson, Dodd, and Kucinich backers you get 36-26-26.

Of course, in some precincts, Richardson and Biden will reach the 15% threshold.

[Yukari Yakumo]

38. The problem assuming those numbers is

Just where the 2nd choice numbers are coming from. If their coming from Obama, Hill, or Edwards, then they shouldn't be counted as their 2nd choice would be moot.

Plus I find it hard to believe supporters of Dodd, Richardson, and Biden will choose Edwards en masse. Considering in how they appeal to their supporters (experience most likely the primary concern), it seems much more logical for them to overwhelmingly support Hillary over Obama or Edwards.

[KingofNewOrleans]

40. It is pretty hard to measure

There will be some precinct where Edwards, Obama, or Hillary don't make the 15% mark and they will have to make a 2nd choice. There will be precincts where Biden and Richardson reach the 15% mark and are viable. Also, I don't think the pollsters are suggesting that anyones supporters will move en masse. They do suggest that Edwards has the highest favorability rating overall and he ranks highest as 2nd choice whether that works out on a precinct by precint basis remains to be seen. But if the top 3 are essentially tied after the first round of caucusing, Edwards probably has a slight advantage in the 2nd.

[balantz]

15. I read the link and saw the correct numbers with Edwards at 24%

before I posted that "I am getting so excited!!"

Go John!!!

[ShadesOfGrey]

16. Darn, as a Edwards supporter I liked the ones in the OP better.

But, you are correct.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. He's Including Second Choice Numbers

Here's Zogby's second choice numbers:

"Importantly, if you eliminate the potentially 'unviable' candidates and redistribute their supporters' second choices, the result is: Clinton 35.8%, Obama 33.4%, Edwards 30.8%."


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1406

[Midwestern Democrat]

31. I was at a Biden Iowa event last week and overheard two Biden

supporters say that Edwards was their second choice if Biden failed to reach the 15% threshold in their caucus - this is just anecdotal evidence, but such voters do exist.

[laureloak]

39. Edwards/Biden is my dream ticket. n/t

[alllyingwhores]

19. This may be an obvious question--how are the votes being counted?

[KingofNewOrleans]

24. People meet in a big room or gymnasium

First people form preference groups for their candidates. A candidate has to have 15% of the people attending to be declared viable. Supporters of candidates who don't make the 15% threshold then have two choices, they can go home, or they can join one of the groups who's candidate is viable. At this point the people in each group are counted and delegates are apportioned for each precinct.

It doesn't function quite like an instant runoff, but it does reapportion the support of second tier candidates to their second choices.

[calteacherguy]

23. I called it for Edwards last night!

I do think that's how it will probably turn out (TURN OUT, get it?)

[Carrieyazel]

34. So you're positive that Richardson won't be getting 15% support.

I don't think anyone knows for sure; we'll see on caucus night.

[PurityOfEssence]

35. Man, these polls are just all over the place

Quite an interesting display of assumptions: within the past few days we've had polls with each of the three up by ten points or so. Is this incompetence, fluidity, bias or some sloppy combination?

It'll be interesting to do a post mortem on the various pollsters and see how they do...

[Arkana]

43. I have officially given up on this primary season.

It's so fucked up I don't even know where to begin--candidates have risen and fallen faster than Dumbass' approval ratings.