Zogby Iowa Poll: Clinton 36% Obama 33% Edwards 31%

[Herman Munster]

These are the most important poll numbers to watch. What happens when the most likely unviable candidates are distributed among the top 3. Zogby has a completely different result than MSNBC.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1406

"Importantly, if you eliminate the potentially 'unviable' candidates and redistribute their supporters' second choices, the result is: Clinton 35.8%, Obama 33.4%, Edwards 30.8%."

[calteacherguy]

1. I still think Edwards will win because of his organization.

Regardless, NH will be all Obama.

It'll be fun to watch! :popcorn:

[Herman Munster]

4. If you are looking strictly on organization muscle

You have to give the edge to Hillary. She has twice as much paid staff as Edwards and hundreds of more staff from the 527's supporting her. She also has legendary democratic operative Teresa Vilmain running her show.

Just some more FYI about Teresa. Check out this article.

She was responsible for winning Wisconsin for Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004, both by less than 1%. She also organized the 80,000 person Bruce Springsteen bash for Kerry the weekend before the election.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=700397


In Wisconsin, Vilmain has helped elect Sen. Herb Kohl and Gov. Jim Doyle, to name just two. She ran the state for former President Clinton's 1996 campaign and Al Gore's 2000 campaign, and she lent a late hand in 2004 for John Kerry. All three were Democratic victories, the last two by less than a percentage point. Wisconsin was the closest state in America in 2004.
...
Vilmain's job in 2004 included brokering the debate schedule among the Democratic contenders, and after Kerry emerged as the nominee, dispatching organizers to the battlegrounds.

Vilmain ended the campaign in ultra-competitive Wisconsin. She helped organize perhaps the biggest campaign event in the state's modern history, a Bruce Springsteen appearance that drew 80,000-plus people to the capital. When members of the crowd were asked to take out their phones to conduct the "world's biggest phone bank operation," they shut down the cell towers within 15 minutes.

GOP consultant Bill McCoshen of Madison said that "people on the Republican side that do this for a living know who the competition is," and "she's the best."

[calteacherguy]

6. We'll see.

Edwards also has the most committed supporters in every poll I've seen, and the strongest 2nd choice support.

No worries though Herman, after all your girl doesn't need to win little 'ol Iowa, right?

Will be fun to watch. :popcorn:

[Hardrada]

2. It's too soon for poll numbers to mean anything at this point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Too Soon

The caucus is Thursday...

I doubt you can do an accurate poll on New Years Eve Day Or New Years Day... That leaves Wed-the first work day of the New Year...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. It Would Be Interesting To See If Zogby Or Mason-Dixon Is Right...

In 04 Zogby was the most accurate in IA not DMR as some have suggested:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_accurate_were_the_iowa_pol.php

[earthlover]

7. The polls during the holiday week are skewed....

Many folks are gone, traveling. There is a demographic: travelers are younger, and more educated. These groups will be under-represented in this week's polls.

Obama does much better among young and better educated demographics. So it would follow that it is likely that Obama's numbers are lower in this week's polls than what is true for the entire population.

So, given the above poll results, Obama is looking good. I also think Edwards' organization and momentum is going to help him.

Biden could very well surprise us as well.

I predict Hillary 4th, Biden 3rd, Obama and Edwards vying for 1st with the edge to Edwards.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Pollsters Weight Their Results To The Census

In other words all groups will be represented in the polls in numbers representative to their numbers in the actual population which is being measured...If African Americans represent 12% of the population they should represent 12% of the poll...If 6% of Americans have post graduate degrees they should represent 6% of the poll, so on and so fourth...

[earthlover]

10. No, during the holiday period, no polling company even bothers to do polls!

They know it is unreliable.

But here we have to rely on the last week of polling which happens to be in the time period when polls are least reliable.

Sorry, but this was pointed out in an excellent article in pollster.com

[surfermaw]

9. I have taken that poll for several years

and have taken one this year, knowing fully well for Edwards , yet they haven't ask that question this year, they ask me who I voted for in the last election, I am reasonably sure not positive, that they h aven't ask me this year who I will vote for.