Current Status of the Primary Polls, State-by-State (12-28-07)

[Yukari Yakumo]

Dems-
Winner Take All-
Current


Trends


15% Threshold-
Current


Trends


Reps-
Winner Take All-
Current


Trends


15% Threshold-
Current


Trends


- - - - -

Changes:
Dem-- OK from Too Close to Clinton, GA from Clinton to Too Close, SC Clinton to Too Close, NH Clinton to Too Close
Rep-- OK from Ghoul to Huckabee, GA from Too CLose to Huckabee

= = = = =

(+++) Huckabee = Rode a perfect storm of Newt opting not to run and GOP voters quickly dumping Fred. Now holds a lead in IA and dominates the South. Will it be enough to win it all?

(++) Romney = Somehow, he leads in NH and leads or is a strong threat in nearly every state before SupTues. I have no idea what the frag his appeal is, though.

(++-) Obama = Momentum has cooled, but does he still have enough to upend Clinton?

(+--) Clinton = If she wins IA, even by the slimmest of margins, it's over. With eight different polls saying eight different things, it's anybody's guess how it'll turn out.

(--) Edwards = Even if he takes IA, it will almost certainly be a Pyhrric victory. He's too weak in the polls and there are too few undecideds in this year's race for him to pull a Kerry-like turnaround. He doesn't even lead in NC (unlike Obama, who holds a massive lead in IL).

(--) Ghoul = He's betting everything on FL... What a moronic thing to do. He leads only FL among the early states. With the GOP voters being highly volatile this year, that is a very bad thing.

(--) McCain = Only a miracle can save his campaign.

(---) Fred = No way, no how. The South, his lone power base, has abandoned him in favor of Huckabee. He might as well throw in the towel.

(-----) Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, Gravel, Paul, Hunter, & Keyes = I don't know just what they think they're going to accomplish, but the only thing these guys are going to do is waste ink printing their names on the ballots. As the saying goes, lead, follow, or get out of the way. The time to show that they can lead has passed and clearly these guys aren't it. The only good they can do now is drop out and endorse someone else, or just drop out.

= = = = =

This marks the last time I'll be doing this analysis, as the Iowa Caucus is this Thursday. So I present to you...





I'll be keeping track of who won what state, differentiate between unrestricted delegates and locked delegates, etc. as the Primaries progress.

In case your wondering what "Public Holding Firm Border Inc." is, I'll just introduce you to the company's president, Yukari Yakumo...



... I have a feeling this skill will be in demand this Friday.

[annie1]

1. thank you so much

[silverojo]

2. You people sure want to stomp Edwards, don't you?

Never occurs to you Edwards-bashers that any candidate who wins Iowa traditionally gets a 10-point bump in the polls...not to mention tons of free publicity.

[Yukari Yakumo]

3. The problem with that is...

Even with a 10 point bump, it still probably won't be enough to carry him on any further.

And that assumes he does get a 10 point bump. Smaller the margin of victory is, smaller the bump will be.