Iowa Caucuses: After Iowans weigh in, the races only tighten

[Omaha Steve]

http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10220016

BY ROBYNN TYSVER
WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER

DES MOINES - The winners in Iowa's caucuses are guaranteed tickets to New Hampshire and the right to claim momentum.

But if history is any guide, victory will not guarantee them the presidential nominations.

There are simply too many top-tier candidates running this time and too many variables for a repeat of 2004, when the Democratic caucuses spelled the beginning of the end for frontrunner Howard Dean and tapped John Kerry, the party's eventual nominee.

It may take several primaries and caucuses in 2008 before the presidential nominees are decided.



Thursday's caucuses will be only the first test.

"Iowa is a very important step, but it doesn't necessarily tell us much about who will ultimately win the nomination," said Daron Shaw, a political science professor at the University of Texas in Austin.

FULL story at link.

[gateley]

1. That's so interesting, and although we've heard all this before, seeing presented

like this really brings it home to me. Thanks for posting this!

[The Ghost]

2. Uncommitted

is this no longer an option for voters anymore? Thats very interesting that such an outcome could happen. Going to caucus on a cold snowy evening for a few hours just to say 'No opinion' basically!

[Debi]

4. Uncommitted is very much an option AND many folks in Iowa

(especially supporters of the second tier) are considering gathering together and creating an 'uncommitted' group if their candidates don't reach viability.

[calteacherguy]

3. History

is the best teacher.

:thumbsup:

[cynthia]

5. I HOPE it takes many caucuses to decide the nominee

This chart in the article was particularly helpful:


Early caucuses, primaries Jan. 3 - Iowa caucuses

Jan. 8 - New Hampshire primaries

Jan. 15 - Michigan primaries

Jan. 19 - Nevada caucuses

Jan. 19 - South Carolina GOP primary

Jan. 25 - Hawaii GOP caucuses

Jan. 29 - Florida primaries

Jan. 29 - South Carolina Democratic primary

Feb. 1 - Maine GOP caucuses

Feb. 5 - Caucuses or primaries in 23 states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia

Feb. 9 - Nebraska Democratic caucuses, Kansas and Washington caucuses, Louisiana (Democratic primary, GOP caucuses)