Iowa's 15% rule is 15% at a caucus location, not 15% statewide

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

(If I am wrong about this, I apologize. This is what I remember from 2004)

Iowa's 15% rule is 15% at a caucus location, not 15% statewide. There could be a caucus location where Kucinich gets 15%, for instance. (15% Kucinich would not be shocking at a college campus caucus). Biden and Richardson are bound to reach 15% in a few places. And so on. Some of the sites are small, and prone to atypical distributions.

On the other hand, there will be caucus sites where one of the top three doesn't reach 15%. For instance, if you assume Edwards gets 25% statewide, for every site where he gets 36% it's as likely he gets 14% at a different site.

And people who switch to their second choice do so after knowing the first round results, which doubtless changes some second choices.

So polling models that apportion the second choices of candidates polling under 15% state-wide are interesting, but only a rough stab at the question.

It's a unique process!

[BringBigDogBack]

1. I think you've got it right. n/t

[Beaverhausen]

2. self-delete

My post was way off- thanks to those who gave the correct info! :hi:

[KingofNewOrleans]

7. No, precincts are weighted by how many people

live in the precinct. A precinct with a population of 2000 will get twice as many delegates as one with only a population of 1000. This is true even if the precinct with fewer voters actually has more turn out than the larger precinct.

[Debi]

13. and each precincts delegates are weighted differently with regard to

state convention delegates (over 13,000 county convention delegates selected but they have to equal the 2,500 district/state convention delegates so they each equal a portion of a delegate :crazy:) Go over to www.iowafirstcaucus.org and look up the delegate information for each county - it will show how each precincts delegates are weighted.

[DURHAM D]

9. There are 99 counties - not precincts.

They should have several thousand precincts.

On Edit - they have a little less than 2000 precincts.

[1corona4u]

10. I think there are like 1700+

can't remember the number.

[Beaverhausen]

11. Oops- ok thanks for the correct info everyone

boy, did I have that wrong.

[Sulawesi]

3. I think so, which has always made me wonder....

If the second choice question is asked of supporters of the top 3 or just the second tier in the polls. It would make a huge difference. Are Obama's supporters going to Edwards in some districts, or Clinton, etc etc...all these candidates are within 10 or so points of dropping below 15% in any one place.

[slick8790]

6. Yeah the viability is deteremined on a local level

Meaning if Edwards gets 30% statewide, there are still most likely some precincts where he isn't viable, and his supporters have to realign.

[Debi]

14. Not necessarily

If his supporters can convince supporters of other non-viable candidates or uncommitted caucus-goers then he can reach that viability threshold and receive a delegate.

[KingofNewOrleans]

4. You are correct that it is by precinct

And certainly there will many precinct where Biden and Richardson meet the threshold. Kucinich really hasn't campaigned in Iowa this time so he probably won't make it much of anywhere.

Supporters of under 15% candidates cannot combine with other under 15% to make one candidate viable. Unless they do it before the first round ends (just by eyeballing and realizing that their candidate won't make it past the 1st round).

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Thanks for that clarification. I will take that out of the OP

[Debi]

15. You are incorrect

If that were the case then John Kerry would have been the only candidate to get out of my precinct with delegates in 2004. Both Howard Dean and John Edwards were below the 15% threshold and were able to convince uncommitted caucus-goers, Kucinich supporters who were non-viable and Clark supporters who were non-viable to join them and help them both reach viability.

a supporter of a non-viable candidate has many choices:

1) convince uncommitteds or supporters of other non-viable candidates to join their candidate and made them viable
2) join with a viable candidate
3) convince a supporter of a viable candidate (who has enough for one or two delegates but has 'left overs' and cannot reach that additional delegate) to join their candidate in order to make their candidate viable therefore keeping another viable candidate from receiving that delegate or keeping another candidate from becoming viable
4) stay with your candidate and just not be counted (or go home).
5) join with other non-viable caucus-goers and create an uncommitted group (that must reach the viability threshold in order to receive a delegate the same as any of the candidates do).

[KingofNewOrleans]

17. Now you're making my head hurt

If everyone stayed with their first round choices, then Kerry would have been the only one with delegates?

Pretty much everyone could change after the first round if they wanted too. Is that right? I understand in practice most people wouldn't do that.

Did Kerry have more than 50% of the people in the first round?

So, in theory if Edwards and Obama want to try to push Hillary into third, then it would be in the best interests of their supporters to shift any of their "leftovers" to each other to maximize the Edwards and Obama delegate total. In reality do caucus goers respond to math or directions like this or are they mostly unaware of such arcane matters. I would assume that each campaign has somebody in the room aware of such minutiae are thus try to orcastrate such maneuvers.

[Debi]

18. Kerry was the only viable candidate after the first round. we had 29 in attendance

and 3 delegates to award. Each candidate needed 8 in attendance in order to receive a delegate. I can't remember the count, but Kerry was the only one with 8 (or more). So during realignment we all talked with the others and came up with one delegate each for Kerry, Edwards and Dean. (I can't remember the count - except I do know that Dean got the one uncommitted by allowing her to be the Dean delegate at the County Convention).

You are correct in both counts, pretty much anyone could change after the first round. Obviously people who are with a viable candidate aren't going to leave and have that candidate lose a delegate - but their 'left overs' may use the strategy of going to a non-viable to keep a different candidate support (Clinton 'left overs' going to Biden or Dodd to keep Edwards or Obama from receiving any - or any more - delegates).

Each campaign has held 'caucus training' for their Precinct Captains and they are prepared to 'do the math' and direct the campaigns supporters to do what will help their candidate the most.

Caucus-goers are savvy. Most of them have been to more than one caucus or are 'mentoring' first-time caucus attendees.

[KingofNewOrleans]

19. Thanks for the insider info! Now, do you know

When the last DMR/Iowa poll is being released?

[Debi]

20. I thought it was going to be today - even bought the paper

:shrug:

[no name no slogan]

5. Yup, that's right

You nailed it spot on. That's how it's possible for a candidate to finish with <15% statewide, and still get delegates to the national convention.

[Debi]

16. National Convention Delegates are selected at the District and State Conventions

Not on caucus night.

[no name no slogan]

27. True, but the selection process starts on caucus night

precint caucus delegates select county/senate district delegates, who in turn select congressional district and state delegates-- at least, that's how we do them in Minnesota.

In Iowa, do you have to be a county/SD delegate in order to run for national/CD delegate? IIRC, in Minnesota you don't have to be a delegate-- you can be selected from outside the convention, but it's extremely rare.

[Debi]

28. I'm sorry if I misunderstood your previous comment

I read it as a statement equating candidate viability in the caucuses to national convention delegates. Obviously, in your current post, you know that's not how it works. :hi:

You're right on. District/State Convention delegates are selected at the County Convention - and 1/2 or 2/3 of the National Convention Delegates (I can't recall which) are selected at the District Convention and the remainder are selected at the State Convention (at least I think that's it). A person could skip the caucuses, County Convention and District Convention and hope to fill an open spot at the State Convention then run for National Delegate...however those positions are coveted and people start campaigning for them right after the caucuses.

[Debi]

12. AND a candidate that doesn't reach viability isn't necessarily 'out' of the running

because in realignment that candidate can pick up some of the uncommitted caucus-goers or supporters of other non-viable candidates or supporters of viable candidates that will 'swap' their support for a chance to be the delegate that goes to the County Convention and become viable :hi:

[Stop Cornyn]

21. It's both. In the Democratic caucus, there is a 15% to 25% viability threshold at the precinct level

plus the Democratic Party's Delegate Selection Rules require that delegates are awarded by proportional representation with a minimum 15% threshold required in order to receive any delegates.

Here are the rules: http://www.iowafirstcaucus.org/pdfs/2008_Caucus_Guide.pdf http://a9.g.akamai.net/7/9/8082/v001/democratic1.download.akamai.com/8082/pdfs/2008delegateselectionrules.pdf

[nancyharris]

22. Congressman Kucinich

will not get 15% in any Iowa caucus location. He didn't in 2004 and he will not in 2008. Despite his popularity here on DU, he is a marginal candidate - a joke - in the race for his own ego and has zero chance of winning the Democratic nomination and may even loose his congressional seat.

[Debi]

24. Actually he was viable in a few precincts in I think Johnson County in 2004 n/t

[loveangelc]

23. How do we know who wins in such a short amount of time????

how long does the process take before they add up everyone statewide, and then how long does that take??

[Debi]

25. Every precinct caucus chair has been trained on reporting to the state party

and the state party has the model to 'do the math' after the 1,781 precincts report. Caucuses will generally be over by 9:00-9:30 PM and the MSM will probably know who the 'winner' is by 10:00 PM Iowa time.

[PATRICK]

26. It is providential

in cutting campaigns down to size and hobbling the media contest hounds and the spinmeisters. This may not be the "best" system, but until we get comprehensive reform it weirdly is a great kickoff to a campaign that might otherwise have been predestined by establishment clout and corporate money.