WHAT IF IOWA SETTLES NOTHING FOR DEMOCRATS?

[DeepModem Mom]

NYT: What if Iowa Settles Nothing for Democrats?
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: December 31, 2007

DES MOINES — Iowa is packed with presidential candidates and hundreds of campaign aides, advisers and contributors. Twenty-five hundred representatives of news organizations have been granted credentials to cover the caucuses on Thursday night, twice as many as in 2004. Rarely has a political event been so intensely anticipated as a decisive moment, at least on the Democratic side. (It is different for Republicans since many of their major candidates are not competing fully here).

But what if it is not decisive?

What if at the end of Thursday, the three leading Democrats — John Edwards, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Senator Barack Obama — are separated by a percentage point, or even less, leaving no one with the clear right of delivering a victory speech, or the burden of conceding? A number of polls going into the finals days that of have suggested that after all of this, the Democratic caucus on Thursday night will end up more or less as a tie.

In truth, amid all the endless permutations of possible outcomes that are being discussed — can Mrs. Clinton survive a third -place finish, or Mr. Edwards a second-place one? — aides are beginning to grapple with the frustrating possibility that all the time, money, and political skill invested here might prove to be for naught when it comes to identifying the candidate to beat in the primaries and winnowing down the top tier.

Rather than clarify the state of play and consolidate this crowded field a bit, an outcome like that would almost certainly muddle it further and potentially extend the time before Democrats know their nominee.

Since none of them would be judged a decisive loser, Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama would all be able to go on to New Hampshire, no questions asked. It would be hard for any candidate to play the “I beat expectations game” and claim some sort of chimerical victory, much the way Bill Clinton proclaimed himself the winner after coming in second in New Hampshire in 1992. And you can bet this: the other Democrats in the race — Christopher J. Dodd, Joseph R. Biden Jr., Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich – would feel less of the morning-after-Iowa pressure to pull out....

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/us/politics/31cnd-nagourney.html?hp

[Warpy]

1. Nothing new there

Iowa rarely settles anything for Democrats beyond being a money sink for the candidates and a race to see whose resources are depleted first.

Super Tuesday is what will settle things. After that, we should have a pretty good idea who the front runner is.

[MaineDem]

2. I expect it will not settle anything

I hope it doesn't.

[pstans]

3. Good, Iowa isn't supposed to settle the race

Iowa is supposed to put the candidates through the ringer, toss out the duds, and send the rest on.

[Mz Pip]

4. Then maybe my vote will matter

I'd kind of like to think that some of the other states might get a say in choosing the nominee.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[suston96]

5. Not decisive IS decisive....

That would end the relevance of Iowa as a "first anything", hopefully forever.

Nominations by political parties are indeed the province of each party. But placing such importance on Iowa and even other "early states" is the indication of really disorganized politics.

Grow up, Democrats and Republicans. If you want the people in your parties to pick candidates, do it right. Get together and set up a national primary day or week-end, and let it all happen then.

And please - how about no more than 3 months before the general election. OK, maybe 4 months.

Thanks.

[dbackjon]

11. Right On!!

[Cleita]

17. I second this motion.

It's time to run these elections professionally.

[RaleighNCDUer]

22. And if we did that, all candidates would campaign only in

California, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania and Texas. And the rest of the country can fuck off.

That's real democratic.

[suston96]

26. Campaign where? Uh, TV is here to stay....

"Pressing the flesh" is pure nonsense. Clearly all candidates cannot visit all the precincts in the country. They have to rely on national exposure and they are all getting that right now.

A national primary on the same day or weekend will force the candidates to campaign nationally via TV debates and the like. They can then visit the states they feel will help them secure those delegates.

[RaleighNCDUer]

27. Then you obviously do not understand that television is NOT a

campaign media, but a propaganda tool. When campaigns are dependent upon television, then the winner will be the person who pays the most bribes to the media industry, and has the biggest cash box.

The whole idea of the early primaries is to allow the lesser-known, poorly funded candidates a chance to compete on a level playing field so that IDEAS will power the process instead of money. Eliminating the early primaries will relegate American democracy to the dustbin of history. Corporate nationhood will be complete.

[rocktivity]

6. It's only one state, and it's only the first. It SHOULDN'T be decisive.

And if five points or less separate the top finishers, it WON'T be decisive. Besides, it's the voters' call, not yours.

:headbang:
rocknation

[durrrty libby]

7. Iowa is nothing but a money whore. A paltry few even bother to show

up for the "caca"

Jon Stewart did an Iowa revisit a year after the last caca

The people were all whiny babies complaining that they didn't get to be

gluttonous enough at the promised trough:eyes:

[DU9598]

20. You are offensive

Why I bother to respond, I do not know.

Iowa's Democratic Party was smart and put a lot of hard work and resources into gaining the first in the nation distinction. Iowa has served a very practical role for our party for several decades before the media spotlight started. Other state party's had every opportunity to do what Iowa's party has accomplished.

It is sad that you disparage the good people of Iowa to make an ignorant political rant. We do not whine and complain ... that is left to people like durrrty libby from all I can tell on DU.

[durrrty libby]

24. The Truth is often offensive to those hogging down at the trough

[DU9598]

29. Thanks

Glad you showed yourself as a logical, intelligent person with something of substance to add to the forum.

So, where are you from?

[RaleighNCDUer]

23. Gee, it sounds like somebody's worried about their candidate's

prospects.

Sour grapes?

[durrrty libby]

25. Only simpletons could come to that conclusion

[RaleighNCDUer]

28. Great comeback.

Pfffttt....

[dbackjon]

8. Then all is well in the universe

It is assinine that the first test EVER settles anything.

[bunkerbuster1]

9. To quote the mighty Atrios:

My Iowa Prediction

While someone will come out on top, as with the polls the result will pretty much be a 3-way tie, and so this pointless contest given meaning only by the media will have even less meaning than usual, though that won't stop them.

http://atrios.blogspot.com/2007_12_30_archive.html#3640290091831239849

[CK_John]

10. You must have seen the movie, build it and they will come. n/t

[no name no slogan]

12. THEN I GUESS IT'S ON TO NEW HAMPSHIRE

AND THE REST OF THE PRIMARIES/CAUCUSES

AND WHY THE HELL AM I YELLING?

[DeepModem Mom]

14. Sorry -- I was "yelling" because after all of the prognostication about the Iowa victor...

and the momentous consequences, the article's suggestion struck me as something different!

[zanne]

16. HOW ELSE CAN YOU EMPHASIZE SOMETHING ONLINE? nt

[chelsea0011]

13. Then all is right with the world. Iowa or NH should never settle anything.

It should always be a national race.

[suston96]

19. A national race with several or more national debates would treat all candidates equally..

...and the monied candidates would have to share the limelight with what would normally be considered "lower tiers".

Gee, imagine - all that money and all the candidates get the same national exposure.

[zanne]

15. Excuse me, but Iowa doesn't decide the nominee.....

Neither does NH, though it helps. We'll know after Super Tuesday. I don't see anything wrong with a horse race.

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ecstatic]

21. I'd be elated. I'm so sick of Iowa getting the first say. nt