DMR Poll Prediction: Clinton 32, Edwards 30, Obama 22

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Just getting it out there so I can be properly derided if wrong. (Until quite recently I have consistently picked Obama to win Iowa, but the scene is falling apart faster than I had anticipated, so re-examination is in order.)

The fluid three-way race at the top will take all the oxygen from the lower tiers; no break-outs.

As voting approaches voters take on a grim practicality. Hope is a synonym for desperation; Reagan '80, Clinton '92. And Edwards is a better vehicle for desperate Democratic primary voters than Obama. It has always been certain that Obama would face a last minute buyers-remorse... the question was whether he would have enough cushion to weather it. It is looking like he has no cushion at all, and is probably in third place already with more cautious re-examination yet to come.

Edwards and Clinton? Edwards has the momentum and the message, but is not likely to surge well past Clinton because that would require a total Obama collapse. In an ironic twist, Obama has been fighting this week to finish second to Clinton and ahead of Edwards, hoping to win NH. Obama's camp recognizes that coming in third is curtains, but given their recent strength in NH, a close second to Clinton in Iowa is okay. So they have turned their sights to Edwards. Unfortunately, the only way the candidate of hope can attack is in a passive-aggressive way that ultimately appears petty. Against a woman that kind of cattiness works okay, particularly because in a Dem primary frontal attacks might be perceived as bullying, but against a man self-styled as a dynamic firebrand it comes off as trivial and effete. So I doubt any of the recent sniping against Edwards hurts much.

I expect Edwards and Clinton to be too close to call in polling. But in actual caucusing, either might finish well ahead of the other. So many variables! But Edwards-Clinton fighting for first and second seems a safe bet at this point.

The Obama campaign's power-point presentation today about how Edwards can't be elected (among other things) suggests they are terrified of perceptions, because the moment there is a public sense of the air coming out of the Obama balloon it's a self-fueling fire. Keep in mind that caucus-goers have all sorts of information before making their choices... they can sense the shape of things at their caucus locale before selecting. So any sense that Edwards, not Obama, is the horse to ride can snowball.

[DemPopulist]

1. I don't believe Obama will be that far back

I believe he's losing ground, but not as rapidly as Dean at the end of the '04 caucuses, and remember, Dean did better in the polls than his ultimate finish. I think the DMR numbers will be something like:

Edwards - 30
Clinton - 29
Obama - 26

The too-close-to-call narrative will continue.

[DemKR]

2. sounds awesome to me! n/t

[Evergreen Emerald]

3. Do you know when the poll comes out?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. The "word" is this evening

[Colobo]

5. I'd say something like Clinton 31%, Edwards 28%, Obama 25%.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. Your pick is safer. (If money was involved I might take yours)

I don't know how tight the DMR's model is, just that it is considered very good. So I'm expecting it to be sensitive to movement.

[Colobo]

12. The thing we can agree on is that Obama's numbers won't be as good

as he would like.

[ngant17]

30. I think Clinton will slowly be increasing a lead over Edwards

I think she will gain more momentum after Iowa. A Clinton/Obama ticket seems kinda cool to me.

Clinton already has about twice the number of union endorsements than Edwards.

The major drawback for me with Clinton has been her 'war-hawk-ishness'
especially wrt Iraq invasion. If she can start to shed her belligerent image over this, I don't have a problem with her at all.

I don't care for Edwards, he has that same war-hawk image, and he lives in a state with a sizeable military-industrial complex (Army and Marine bases galore), his trail lawyer status doesn't bother me, it's the NC 'right to work (for less)' state which I don't like. He just doesn't seem genuine to me.

Overall NY sends a better progressive image for me than NC.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Missed The Presentation

~

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Ambinder posted some pages:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/12/obamas_campaign_manager_makes.php

There are other blog entries about it, but Ambinder is the only one I'm remembering. (Blogroll hopping makes me forget just which blog I'm reading sometimes)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. What's Ironic

What's ironic is that if he was to win he would win by practicing the very politics he ostensibly deplores...

I don't support Clinton or Edwards because they are paragons of virtues but because they can get things done; folks that hold themselves out as such just rub me the wrong way...

[paulk]

7. Obama is this election's Dean

"As voting approaches voters take on a grim practicality."

reality will trump rhetoric.

[DemKR]

9. thats right. except dean was genuine lol

[Chasing Dreams]

11. DMR will be a dead heat

Edwards 26, Clinton 25, Obama 24. Surprise will be Biden 4th with 12.

[Perky]

14. Flip Obama and Clinton and you will be closer to the actual final results.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. It's all possible! This is a wild one.

[Colobo]

15. Kick!

[Bullet1987]

16. Obama has lost ground solely because of the attacks

he has taken mostly from the Clinton camp. What none of these polls EVER factor in (which is why they're off most of the time) is the effect negative campaigning will have on caucus-goers support.

Though, I think the Obama camp played it too safe by letting the Sheheen commments, etc, etc roll through the news unchallenged with them making simple statements and not taking it head on like they should have. Now the negative campaigning has slowed the momentum he had...if not stopped it altogether. I think the position Obama is in after Iowa will tell a lot about just how much Iowans don't like negative campaigning as we're told.

By all intents and purposes, the race in Iowa is a dead heat and will likely remain that way all the way until Thursday. Who does that benefit more? Probably Edwards then Obama. I still think Clinton will come in 3rd simply because Edwards and Obama do much better when it comes to secondary choices.

[TeamJordan23]

25. he has taken a lot of negative attacks from Edwards' 527s also. nm

[Joe the Revelator]

18. Is the OP an article or Kurts opinion?

[K Gardner]

24. Its a Prediction of the results of a Poll that won't come out until Tonight.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

[BringBigDogBack]

19. We'll see how it shakes out, KandH...

Here's hoping you miss by a bunch tho. :)

[loveangelc]

20. when does this poll come out?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

21. Tomorrows paper, but probably posted online tonight

And, as their endorsement showed, they are good at keeping something secret, so probably no leaks.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

26. 9 PM

[IndianaJones]

22. I gotta give the edge to Edwards in IA right now....

Clinton 2nd, Obama a distant 3rd.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

23. I agree, but I'm assuming the DMR poll headline number won't reapportion second choices

Edwards is the favorite to win, and maybe by a lot (10%?), but I think the DMR poll number will show a slight Clinton lead.

[BootinUp]

29. too close to call nt

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

27. Insider Advantage Poll 12/31: HRC-30, JE-29, BO-22

Clinton 30 (24)
Edwards 29 (26)
Obama 22 (27)

[DemKR]

28. This poll coincides with todays' RCP poll..K&R

[Joe the Revelator]

31. Kurt almost had it right, if he had just changed the names around a bit.

[K Gardner]

32. I was almost pregnant once.