Bookmark this: Final Iowa results; Obama 38% Edwards 33%, Clinton 29%

[Perky]

[forsberg]

1. hate to burst your bubble

But Obama is coming in 3rd

[babylonsister]

3. Penn, is that you? nt

[Catchawave]

6. ROFL !

I needed that ... :hi:

[ihelpu2see]

13. No one will choose Hill for their second choice so Hill comes in 3rd. a distant

3rd at that.... imo

[thoughtcrime1984]

35. Wow

Great pick.

[LordJFT]

37. hahaha

[Colobo]

2. That's bold, man! Hopefully you're right, though.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. No percents for any second tier? Harsh!

[Perky]

12. I don't think any are going to be viable in any precinct given where the top 3 are currently polling

Maybe someone gett to 15% in a few locations, but there are 1,700+ preincts. Statewide this translates into maybe 1%.

[cali]

5. That doesn't sound realistic to me.

I think it's more likely to be Edwards at 36%, Clinton at 32% and Obama at 29%. I do agree, sadly, that none of the 2nd tier will reach 15%. I hope I'm wrong.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. They don't need to reach 15% state-wide

There will be some delegates apportioned to a second tier.

(But I agree that no second tier will reach 15% state-wide.)

[KingofNewOrleans]

10. Actually, I think Biden has a shot

I just think the dynamics of the caucus make it possible for Biden to get there.

[KingofNewOrleans]

8. The second tier doesn't have to make 15% statewide

they have to make 15% at the precinct level which they will do at many precincts.

AT the bare minimum, the second tier will get 10-12% possible as high as 20%.

[Renew Deal]

22. I'm confused about Edwards

I understand why people would support him and why he should do well. My sense is that he will not win. I'm not sure if he's going to be 2nd or 3rd. I think Hillary is going to be pushed to third because of the caucus rules which means Edwards is 2nd.

[killbotfactory]

40. I bet you never felt happier to be wrong

:-)

[Bitwit1234]

9. he he he he he he this don't even deserve a ha ha ha it is so

bullshitty.

[Bullet1987]

11. I don't know if Obama wins by that margin...

but I still think he's going to win. If he doesn't win, I think he comes in a close 2nd. I don't know why people on this site have written him off all of a sudden.

[killbotfactory]

15. Yeah

Every poll I've seen has the race at a virtual three-way tie. It's going to come down to organization, and I think people are greatly underestimating his organization in the state.

I guess we'll find out in a couple days.

[JackORoses]

34. ha ha!!! (think nelson from the Simpsons)

[BringBigDogBack]

14. I too think Obama will win or come in a close second...

Don't see it happening by those margins, tho...


Would love to be wrong. :)

[BootinUp]

16. good luck

hope you didn't put any money on those numbers. ;)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. kick for diversity of opinion

[Perky]

18. DMR Predicting 40% of Dem caucusgoers will be independents

That is double the usual number.

DES MOINES, Iowa — As Thursday’s caucuses approach, political insiders say the outcome is more in doubt than perhaps ever before. That’s partly because neither party has a front-runner — and also because Iowa polling has provided as many questions as answers.

Those uncertainties have persisted into the campaign’s final hours in the wake of Monday’s release of the Des Moines Register poll.

The poll remains the most respected of Iowa surveys, in part because it accurately predicted the 2004 result.

But its conclusion that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D) hold clear leads not only contrasted with the narrow margins of other polls but also was based on two stunning findings: record high turnout by independents and a strong reliance on first-time caucus-goers.
Obama’s internal polling also shows him ahead, according to a senior adviser in the campaign, but Clinton’s chief strategist, Mark Penn, challenged the Register’s results outright.

Most alarming, in the view of Hillary Rodham Clinton's camp, is the Register’s finding that four in 10 Democratic caucus-goers will be independents.

The New York senator still leads among Democrats and would win, Penn pointed out, if the 2008 independent turnout comes in at a level closer to that of previous caucuses.

In 2004, only 19 percent of Democratic caucus-goers were independents. In 2000, the figure was 17 percent, according to a CNN entrance poll. If the Register is right, 2008 would mark an historic doubling of independents participating in the Democratic contest.

The Register’s independent expectation is also roughly 10 percent larger than that of other polls, like those run by John Zogby for Reuters. Zogby’s poll, released Wednesday, finds a statistical tie between Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, as well as among the three leading Democrats.

But the Register poll remains the gold standard in terms of its accuracy.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7681.html

[Infinite Hope]

19. Uh, that adds up to 100% and there are several other candidates that will have at least 1%. Biden...

...could potentially be double digits.

[Perky]

20. Not the way the caucus system works.

You have to meet 15% at a single caucus site or you are not viable. Biden or Richardons have to get 15% in enough sites to get on the board in the state totals.
A scond tier candidate has to get about 20% in about 20% of the sitesto even get to 1% state wide.


it sux...but those are the rules.

[fightindonkey]

21. Obama Will Not Come In First. Hillary or Barack Will Take Second

It's that simple.

[Perky]

43. apparnently it was not that simple

[Infinite Hope]

23. That's for individual precincts, not state-wide. n/t

[Perky]

24. I hate to say I told you so,

Nah I really do not hate it at all.

[annie1]

25. very good, very close.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

26. Very good prediction! Congrats.

[Bullet1987]

27. That's scary-close...

[Perky]

42. I did not think Richardson would get to the viability threshold in enough

preincts to get to the two percent statewide. That actually means he god 15% in about 15% of the precincts.

I have to look at those precincts to see how Edwards faired but It was damn close otherwise.

[SoxFan]

28. You need a show on cable!

:applause:

[Perky]

41. ROFL

Thanks.....


How are things looking to ou in New Hampshire the day after. What are the Headlines in the Union-leader and the Monitor?

[Kosmo]

29. Second place baby. Yeah!

From Iowa I'll take it.

[maximusveritas]

30. Nice job

Now tell us who'll win NH.

[Perky]

31. New Hampshire prediction

I will wager that the next NH poll will show a bump of 15% for Obama and a small erosion of supportfor Hillary.

Given how Independents and women broke in NH and given that NH is an open primary, Obama will win NH with 45to 47% of the vote.

Richardon will drop out.

It is difficult to see how Hillary wins South Carolina if Obama Steamrolls New Hampshire.

Her first competitve win is going to have to wait until Super Tuesday. That is a tough hand to play. Even harder for Edwards given how he is polling in NH and SC.

[Colobo]

32. You rock, Perky!

[maximusveritas]

33. Nice, can't disagree with that

I'll be working to make it happen.

[politicasista]

36. Good luck in NH

:hi:

[loveangelc]

38. you know, my friend predicted Obama-Edwards-Clinton in that order tonight

and says that Obama wins sizably in NH too..we'll see if you're right in five days.lol

[Egnever]

39. Well done!

The Perky poll prevails!