Inside Advantage Poll Iowa Shows Edwards Clinton Tied

[liskddksil]

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Poll: Clinton and Edwards in Virtual Tie in Iowa

Using the same polling methodology that successfully predicted the outcome of the 2004 Democratic Caucus in Iowa, InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research has been conducting a daily tracking poll among likely voters in the Jan. 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus, and it shows a statistical tie between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, with Barack Obama starting to lag.

Clinton has 30%, Edwards 29%, Obama 22%, with 14% committed to other candidates and 5% undecided.

The survey was conducted Jan. 28-29 among 788 likely Democratic voters in Iowa. The poll has been weighted for gender and age. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.
Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.

Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:
Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1231_103.aspx

[MADem]

1. I think Edwards and Dodd are going to do better than people have thought in IA.

Dodd is frigging LIVING there, and has put his kid in school, after all.

But a lot depends on the weather....what's the forecast?

If the rural areas get ice storms, and the cities are free of onerous precipitation, ANYTHING could happen.

[liskddksil]

2. weather reports says clear across the state for Thursday

[comradebillyboy]

3. I think Obama's act is beginning to get

tiresome. His halo has lost its luster for many

[Zynx]

4. I can't stand his smug, dismissive arrogance.

Granted, all politicians are ego-maniacs, but still...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. They Are A Republican Polling Firm But As A Clinton And Edwards Supporter Those Results Are Very,

Very Gratifying...

My Christmas wish may be answered...

[MethuenProgressive]

6. Can Obama stop his fall into fourth place?

Iowa just make some history with Joe Biden or Bill Richardson.