What happens next if Iowa goes Edwards-41% Clinton-34% Obama-25%?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Assume the Iowa caucus goes like this:

Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:

Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

Then what?

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Poll: Clinton and Edwards in Virtual Tie in Iowa

Using the same polling methodology that successfully predicted the outcome of the 2004 Democratic Caucus in Iowa, InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research has been conducting a daily tracking poll among likely voters in the Jan. 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus, and it shows a statistical tie between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, with Barack Obama starting to lag.

Clinton has 30%, Edwards 29%, Obama 22%, with 14% committed to other candidates and 5% undecided.

The survey was conducted Jan. 28-29 among 788 likely Democratic voters in Iowa. The poll has been weighted for gender and age. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.

Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.

Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:
Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1231_103.aspx

[annie1]

1. i would be beyond psyched if edwards did that well...

then any Obama supporters that changed their votes to edwards in nh, would make it Edwards and hil all the way. oh man, my dream vote.

[comradebillyboy]

2. Its great for Edwards if he wins by that kind of margin

The really big problem for Edwards will be money to sustain his momentum for the long run if he wins big in Iowa.

[DaveinMD]

5. the money will roll in if that happens

and free media from that type of win could propel him.

[cali]

10. He can't spend most of it if does roll in.

He's limited to $50 million for the entire primary season. Conservatively, he's spent at least $25 million. He just got handed a check for $8 million. By Sept 30th, he had raised $30 million. Let's assume he raised $8 million in the last quarter. That totals up to $46 million. He can only raise a few more million and then he's cut off. People need to understand that taking matching funds has consequences. BTW, the primary season is until August 30th. So if he gets the nomination, he's screwn- and so are we.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

19. It's a valid concern, no doubt.

[DaveinMD]

30. its enough

to get through the point where he needs to compete. The problem is after the nomination is sewn up and before the convention.

[Andy823]

37. That's a load of Bull and you know it

You want Obama, great, but stop the crap about he can't win because of the money, that's been shown to be false. He has shown what he can do with "little" money, compared to the other two, and it looks like spending a "fraction" of what they have will take him to a win in Iowa.

Edwards is a better chance than Clinton or Obama in taking he general election. When he wins Iowa, his supporters will grow, as will his message. So lay off the we are screwed tactic, because it just isn't so! The reality is that he is the "best" chance we have to take back the Whitehouse.

[cali]

50. Sorry if it upsets you, but it's just math, and it's definitely not bull.

He's really in a pickle because of funding. Every word I wrote about the limitations he faces is true. And he's hardly done as much with the money he's spent as you seem to think. He's spent a good amount in Iowa, and Iowa is one small state. How does he compete in Ilinois? NY? NJ? CA? You won't be able to answer me. And if you don't think that the repukes can frame him negatively with a couple of hundred million, you're not living in the real world.

[2hip]

54. Something that many forget

re: "he can't win because of the money"....he comes from a family that knows how to s-t-r-e-t-c-h a dollar and those same strategies will be employed on a larger scale with his campaign. I'm not worried about Edwards going the distance.



        Edwards '08 tees!

[Sulawesi]

3. I think that means Hillary takes the nom.

[NOVA_Dem]

6. Correctamundo... n/t

[gaiilonfong]

4. Clinton gets the nomination, Democrats LOSE the WH

and possibly the congress!
The independents will break for the reTHUGS against Clinton unless it is Huckabee, which will never happen.
I am going out to buy new luggage Friday if Hillary or Edwards wins, I will need it to pack up for canada!
Oh and I think Edwards is a great man!. but can't win the nomination!

[ronnykmarshall]

27. Here ya go, hon.

[gaiilonfong]

48. I would save them for yourself hon!

As a gay Hillary supporter, you will need them when she throws all of us gays under the bus when she gets the NOM

DOMA
DON'T ASK DON'T TELL

[ronnykmarshall]

53. Good luck with that broken record, hon.

[Skink]

7. Start looking for a Kucinich vice Presidency.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. It would put NH in play for Edwards

[cali]

13. Maybe. But it doesn't do anything beyond that.

Edwards plain out doesn't have the money for Super Tuesday.

[annie1]

16. that's really sad! why did everyone give money to Obama..

over him? i'm confused how he would be so behind. i can see about the matching monies, but it's so odd that he would be destined to fail before people across the country even really got into it.

[BringBigDogBack]

9. HRC takes the nom, we lose in the GE

across the board...

Just watch.

[annie1]

12. why couldn't edwards win the nom?

[BringBigDogBack]

14. I would hope that he would

and would work for him...

I just don't think it would happen. He's boxed himself in re:matching funds

[annie1]

18. oh no! silly question, but did he assume he had no chance...

of winning the nom? b/c if taking matching funds boxes one in, why would he do that?

[BringBigDogBack]

21. At the time

I'm sure it was something that Edwards viewed as necessary. I'm just not sure they planned far enough ahead. He could have waited to make the decision regarding matching funds. :(

BTW, I like Edwards, very much. And would be happy to work for him in my state if he starts picking up Mo(mentum).

[Lucinda]

51. If I remember correctly , he needed the money.

[cali]

28. That depends. I'd tuck away the 8 ball and take a look

at the real world. I believe she'd beat Huckabee with ease- same goes for Romney. Guiliani might be a tougher race, but she'd beat him. She might lose to McCain- or not. To understand why the next dem nominee is almost certainly the next president, start by reading the November Pew Report- long but worth it. It's partly demographics and partly the fracturing of the repuke party. And we certainly will not be losing the Senate or the House.

[BringBigDogBack]

29. Hillary won't beat anyone with ease

in the GE... Perhaps it is you who needs to take a look.

[cali]

34. um. I actually have taken more than just a look. I've researched

it fairly extensively. You clearly have not.

[BringBigDogBack]

39. Have you been watching?

If Gore couldn't win in 2000, and Kerry couldn't win in 2004 during a clusterfuck, what makes you think Hillary can win in 2008?

What part of the country do you live in?
Hillary wouldn't carry a single flyover state against any of the repugs, polls be damned. If you can't grasp that, then you're living in denial, I'm afraid.

I don't think this country will elect another Clinton or Bush for some time. Don't think it's sitting well with the unaffiliated out there. And I think we'll take losses across the board, because of it.

Edwards looks to be our best shot at a GE victory. And even still, the prospects aren't great. (diebold)
Hate to be a Debby Downer, just the way I see it.

[cali]

49. 2008 is far more analogous to 2006 than 2000 or 2004

The repuke alliance between social conservatives and fiscal conservatives has been shattered. Read Bill Press on this. By the way, Gore did win in 2000, but that's really beside the point.

The republican party is bleeding registered members. The dem party is increasing them. Independents are also increasing. The latino vote is both larger and completely alienated from the repukes save for a few cuban exile dead enders.

Clinton could carry NM and OH, and possibly CO- particularly if Huckabee is the candidate. In fact, if Huckabee is the candidate, expect to see massive defections of monied repukes and women. They'll vote for Clinton. This isn't merely about polls, it's about demographics.

Where I live is immaterial. It's what I know, not where I reside.

I agree that Clinton is not the strongest candidate, but I don't agree that JE is. He's extremely limited by his acceptance of matching funds. By March, if he's the candidate he will have somewhere around 10 to 15 million dollars until the end of August to cover all his expenses- including getting his message out. Unless he's facing John McCain, who has taken matching funds as well, he'll be outspent by more than 10 to one. And if you don't think the repukes can frame him as they wish with that kind of money, you're in denial.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

43. And if the Pew Report is unavailable, read the monthly new homes sales figures...

It all leads the same direction

[madrchsod]

11. clinton is going to win the nomination

no matter what she does in iowa or new hampshire. in the minds of the majority of voters she has the most experience to run the country, she has a "steady hand", and 35 years of experience and judgments.

[Skink]

15. Maybe Gore will run

[ronnykmarshall]

20. This might also happen

[hayu_lol]

17. The only thing that could happen--as posted as the threadstarter...

is that the whole gaggle of candidates get to do it again in NH.

Ummm, what sort of voting machines is NH using this year?

[Skink]

26. Dean should have looked into the NH voting machines.

[denem]

22. Headlines: Edwards victory,, Obama vanquished..

Obama will be damaged, but won't pull out. The anti-Hillary forces remain split till the end of the Primaries. I am beginning to believe that Edwards wants his message heard, no matter what, for the good of the country.

From memory, Edwards 31% in Iowa 04 got him 15% in NH. Last time Kerry was the story. This time it would be Edwards. No idea how it would play. There's only five days between them this time round, not the traditional eight.

[ronnykmarshall]

23. Then Hillary will be blamed.

[itsrobert]

24. That would be a death blow to the Hillary Campaign

Hillary needs to finish First or Third in Iowa. If she finishes second, a lot of movement will go to Edwards from the Obama camp. (or vice versa if Obama wins Iowa and Edwards finishes 3rd) Many voters are looking for the candidate that can knock off Hillary. Hillary needs to keep both Obama and Edwards in the race to split the Anti-Hillary vote. The best way to do that is finish third. Third place is as good as first for Hillary in Iowa.

[Skink]

31. Hillary is already positioning herself for an independant bid.

That might put Mccain in the white House.:scared:

[itsrobert]

33. Maybe she will run on a Clinton/McCain ticket

lol

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

35. I would be delighted to see Obama drop out and let Edwards and Clinton wage a left vs. center race

Left vs. Center is a lot more pertinent than old vs. new, experience vs. change... those are gauzy abstractions.

Edwards would, if nothing else, force Hillary to a more progressive economic stance.

A race with Obama would just force her to be more establishment... "safety, security, experience"

[annie1]

36. this would be ideal.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. It's A Win -Win For Me

~

[annie1]

45. me too. only thing is, i'd hate to see them duke it out. Neither hold any punches...

and i like them both so much. i'll never forget him letting her have it at that debate when he said she votes with the neo-cons. ouch. lol. he's is brutal, and she doesn't play around.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. HRC Has Lots Of Advantages In A Showdown With John Edwards

Without Obama she would get much of the African American vote she's splitting with him...She has a hold on the Hispanic vote... She's strong with women, downscale voters, and old folks...

That's not to say that once the kaleidoscope is shook up it will return to the way it was before...

[Name removed]

25. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[no name no slogan]

32. The world as we know it will come to an end

:eyes:

Jeez, it's ONE CAUCUS. There's still a whole assload to go.

[Stop Cornyn]

38. I think this spread is unlikely, but possible, and if it happened, Edwards would get an enormous

bump going into New Hampshire, where the contest would still be a three way race that any of the three could win.

If Obama finished third in both Iowa and New Hampshire, that would bode ill for him.

If Edwards won both Iowa and New Hampshire, that would bode well for him.

All other post-Iowa results would leave all three top candidates in the mix through Nevada.

[maximusveritas]

42. It becomes a 2-person race and Hillary wins going away

Other than Hillary herself winning, this is exactly the kind of result she would hope for.

[calteacherguy]

44. The survey was conducted Jan. 28-29 ????

Yeah, these folks sure sound like they know what they're doing. :eyes:

[jefferson_dem]

46. Looks like they used their same flawed methodology from 2004

IA was pretty damn far off, eh...

[calteacherguy]

47. Good find. nt

[Seabiscuit]

52. Sounds about right to me.

Edwards will be the primary beneficiary of delegates from those candidates that fail to reach 15%. It should send him way over the top.