72 Hours Out: Where Things Stand in Iowa

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
12/31/2007
72 Hours Out: Where Things Stand

....Although the presidential campaign has been going full force here for the better part of a year, large numbers of voters remain undecided in the final days. Many of them have been attending multiple candidate events in an attempt to make up their minds....

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DEMOCRATS

The race -- as it has been for many months -- is a three-way affair between Clinton, Obama and Edwards.

What's clear from being on the ground here in Iowa is that Edwards's surge over the past week is real. The former North Carolina senator's closing message is extremely sharp, appealing directly to those who feel most disenchanted with the state of the country after nearly eight years of George W. Bush....Edwards is also relying heavily on his personal story -- his father's work in a mill, his humble upbringing -- to speak to rural voters who are already inclined to be for him....

Edwards's staying power has forced a recalculation on the part of Obama who at one time expected the caucuses to turn into a two-person race between him and Clinton. Instead, Obama now finds himself in an unexpected fight for the anti-Clinton vote with the increasingly feisty Edwards. Hoping to slow Edwards's momentum, Obama and his campaign have begun questioning whether Edwards is in fact an agent for real change in the political system by focusing on the amount of outside money being spent on behalf of the former North Carolina senator.

Obama is also seeking to draw contrasts between the paths that he and Edwards took to get to this place. At the rally last night in Indianola, Obama noted that he eschewed the chance to go to a high-powered law firm in order to become a community organizer -- drawing an implicit contrast with the affluence accrued by Edwards as a trial lawyer. (A side note: Obama is starting to use the term "trial lawyer" more often on the stump to describe Edwards, perhaps hoping to capitalize on the negative associations many voters have with that particular profession.)...

As Obama and Edwards fight, Clinton is seeking to close the deal with an appeal to voters' pragmatism. In her own comments as well as those made by her husband, she is focused on convincing voters that serious times call for a serious politician -- one who has been tested before and knows what to expect once in office. At the same time, the Clintons are trying to portray their Democratic rivals -- particularly Obama -- as risky choices for voters at a time when steadiness and dependability are crucial....Anecdotal evidence points to a small gain for Clinton over the weekend, gains potentially attributable to the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benzanir Bhutto and the foreign policy discussion it triggered. But, it's important not to overstate that movement; senior strategists for each of the three campaigns acknowledge the race is stunningly close and that any of the trio could wind up on top or in third place on Thursday night....

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