It's become obvious to me that whoever wins Iowa, Obama has the best chance of winning NH.

[calteacherguy]

Poll question: It's become obvious to me that whoever wins Iowa, Obama has the best chance of winning NH.

There are several reasons for this. First, around 40% of voters in Iowa are registered to neither political party, but can vote in the primary. These folks will break mostly for McCain or Obama, the two most electable candidates in either party nationwide. All recent polls show these independent minded folk tend to prefer Obama over McCain, because of the war.

Second, polls in NH show a clear upward trend for Obama. He is either tied with Clinton or leading there. I believe most polls underestimate the large number of independents that will vote for Obama.

Third, I think the whole thing about Iowa having a big influence on NH is being overplayed. In fact, I think it may have a negative influence in the NH voters will want to show everyone they have a mind of thier own. The race is so close now among the "top three" on the Democratic side, it isn't as if a single digit spread in Iowa among them is going to be decisive.

So, who do you think will win NH?

[Rowdyboy]

1. After winning Iowa handily, Edwards poll numbers will jump, throwing

New Hampshire into a virtual three way tie (he's already showing advances there in a couple of polls). In the end I expect Edwards to narrowly win New Hampshire further raising his national numbers which will allow hin to win South Carolina, Nevada and Florida-by then its all over. At least thats the plan.

Don't expect much out of my candidate do I?

[TeamJordan23]

2. Some of these polls are unnecessary, it is clear that DU is way more pro-Edwards.