Obama May Still Surprise in Iowa

[Bullet1987]

It's funny to hear all of the poll junkies and non-Obama supporters talking up his doom in Iowa. Has he lost ground due to the attacks from the Clinton and Edwards camps? Yes, but I'm not a poll junkie and I realize that many times these polls don't represent how it will all turn out. What IS important is that it's still a statistical dead heat...meaning even though Obama may be polling 3rd in some of these polls, that doesn't mean he'll END UP 3rd when it's all said and done. Obama still has an excellent ground game, and is still a 2nd choice favorite. That alone should at least secure him the second spot. I think he can still win...I just don't think it'll be by much. But to write him off, especially when the polls are still within the MOE is erronous as history has shown over and over again.

I also wouldn't count out young voters. It's still the holidays, so they'll have the day off and it's not a weekend. I think a significant youth voter turnout could propell him to a win also.

[AtomicKitten]

1. Obama-6, Clinton-5, Edwards-1

FWIW the 12-pundit panel on Chris Matthews yesterday were asked who they think will win Iowa.

[maximusveritas]

3. Yeah, but Matthews is a huge Obama fan and the panel was similarly stacked

I don't think that's the view of most pundits who know Iowa.

[AtomicKitten]

4. I'm sure we could all mitigate any poll we don't agree with.

I just posted this FWIW, not claiming it is gospel. 'K?

[maximusveritas]

2. Obama supporters have been saying the same thing

The facts are that the Iowa caucus system just doesn't favor him. It favors candidates who can run well in small, rural precincts. Candidates like Edwards.
Even if the youth turn out, it won't give him the advantage needed to win. He has a chance if he really turns out a bunch of new people, but it's very slim.

[sandnsea]

5. 1,000 house parties across the state

I think he's in a lot better position on the ground then people are giving him credit for.

[Bullet1987]

6. I definently think Edwards has the advantage going in...but

I'm just not writing off Obama because anything can happen at this point. I will say this though, I'm almost certain EITHER Edwards or Obama will win Iowa. I firmly believe Clinton will come in 3rd. As long as Obama can end with a respectable 2nd spot, he can still go on to NH and win there. Obama does excellent with Independents, and a strong showing in Iowa can secure him a win in NH where he is still polling well. It's funny, an Edwards win can also help Obama just as much as Clinton.