Which Polls Were Most Off?

[Bullet1987]

I'm not a poll junkie, you guys know that. Can someone help me out with all of the polls that have come out recently. The DMR Poll, the ARG poll, Insider Advantage, etc?

[MadBadger]

1. ARG poll was the laughing stock.

Had Clinton up 15 points a week ago and 9 points right before the election. The DMR poll was pretty spot on.

[Bullet1987]

2. It's funny how nearly everyone who wasn't supporting

Obama attacked the DMR poll HARD. And the only thing it got wrong was the % of Independents that would turn out. They said 40% and it was closer to what it was in 2004...about 20%. But everything else they got right. They predicted a record turnout of 200,000 voters or more...and there were some 230,000+ that came. They predicted nearly 60% first-time caucus goers, and it was close to that too.

[Didereaux]

3. Rasmussen was the most consistently off, Zogby the most erratic