Here's what's going on in New Hampshire voters' minds as we speak

[FlyingSquirrel]

This is how the contest for the nomination works, in case you've forgotten: It's all about expectations. HRC did not bypass Iowa but instead attempted to win and failed in spite of her kajillions of money vs Edwards. Edwards is not expected to win South Carolina regardless, because of the black vote. If Edwards can pull off a second place finish in NH over Hillary Clinton who's been number one in almost all the polls there, suddenly he can claim that his candidacy has momentum. The media coverage and money will start flowing his way as the media hypes a "two-man race".

Let's not forget: This is the media's game. They like ratings. You think they want it to be over before Super Tuesday? NOT A CHANCE. They'll hype Edwards' "unexpected meteoric rise in New Hampshire" and the sudden "mono-a-mono" till they burst, as opposed to the other possibility: "Obama runs away with it, Super Tuesday irrelevant." Yawn. What a story.

No, one way or another they're gonna have their two person contest for the nomination - it only remains to be seen whether that second person is Hillary Clinton or John Edwards.

I have a feeling that NH voters who are currently soft supporters of HRC will be thinking, "Do I want to support her losing candidacy and allow Obama to cruise to the nomination uncontested, only to possibly lose in the General Election after the Republican Slime Machine gets through with him? Or should I shift to Edwards right now and make it a contest? Who would have a better chance in the GE, Clinton or Edwards?"

I can hear the gears grinding in their heads as we speak.

P.S. Most recent NH poll numbers:

Clinton 32% Obama 28% Edwards 19%, Franklin Pierce - Dec 27-31
Clinton 31% Obama 27% Edwards 21%, ARG - Dec 27-29
Clinton 34% Obama 30% Edwards 17%, CNN/Univ NH - Dec 27-30

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

[Viva_La_Revolution]

1. I feel my brain grinding on that too.

lol. :)

[Bullet1987]

2. The Super Tuesday story will be much more

interesting on the Rethug side anyway because their race is more wide open than ours.

[Joe the Revelator]

3. But then the NH voters realizes

Shit! Edwards has no money and will be useless in the General Election.

[FlyingSquirrel]

4. I'm about to give him $50. Hope he spends it well. ;-)

And so are a lot of people after his second place finish today. Watch as the media attention follows the money.

[Joe the Revelator]

5. I think its too late for that

I could be wrong, but by accepting public financing, he's already capped.

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. Nope, it's $2300 per person per election, and the primary and general

count as two separate elections.

[FrenchieCat]

8. No money from General Election funds till August 29th......

Until then, Edwards' got about 25 Million left from his 51 Million cap to finish the primaries and defend himself through August 29th, if he were to win. His 25 million won't even last through Super Tuesday, and then he will still have staff to pay. The math shows that it is an impossibility for John Edwards to win the General Election, period.

[Joe the Revelator]

10. Yeah, I didn't think I was wrong on this.

nt

[JDPriestly]

12. Edwards got far on little money in Iowa.

He is running a very thrifty campaign. I know. I'm in California, and we volunteers spend our own money mostly -- small amounts.

[FrenchieCat]

18. Volunteers will able to only spend so much....

and in big states, it won't be a caucus, and it won't be about retail politics so much. Too many states will come all at once, and without the Iowa momentum, I do not believe that Edwards can get what he needs done. The only he will have is Free Press, and they ain't gonna give it to him, since he hates he wants to go to war with corporations this time around.

And then after all of that, he doesn't have what is required to be competitive during that time period (known only as the period between the time the nominee is known and the Convention), and will, as Trippi said, be ....."Like “Dukakis — Getting the Living Shit Kicked Out of Him All Summer Long” --http://www.rollingstone.com/nationalaffairs/index.php/2007/09/28/trippi-oping-out-of-public-financing-would-leave-nominee-like-dukakis-getting-the-living-shit-kicked-out-of-him-all-summer-long/

but instead it will be winter, spring AND summer. :shrug:

[FlyingSquirrel]

13. Link to amount he has remaining, please. n/t

[JDPriestly]

24. You sound like a paid political advisor. Who are you?

Edwards pulled ahead of Hillary on far less money than Hillary had. Edwards knows how to do more on less. Edwards has plenty of money.

[FlyingSquirrel]

11. He has a $50 million spending limit in the primary, but in the GE...

it would be $84 million and he would not need to raise that money.

"Once qualified, the federal government will match the first $250 from new contributors, provided Edwards adheres to a $50 million national spending limit, as well as spending limits in each state. Candidates may not receive more than about $21 million in matching funds.

Public funding in the general election comes in the form of an $84 million grant given to a major party nominee if the candidate agrees not to raise or spend outside funds.

No general election candidate has ever refused these funds since the program began in 1976, though this year a number of presidential candidates from both parties have indicated they may forego the general election funding."

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/09/27/edwards.public.financing/index.html

[FrenchieCat]

14. Not any GE money until August 29th.

Kerry spent 241 Million in his primary bid through the Democratic Election.
Bush spent 251 Million in his incumbent primary bid (mainly attacking Kerry) in his primary period.

Edwards has about 25 mill remainding for the next 8 months. Just do the math. It is statiscally impossible for him to win the GE. He can win the primary and quickly become Republican roadkill for months on end. I'm not going for that, and I doubt other Democrats are gonna put a noose around their neck for the sake of one man attempting to do something that he won't be able to do.

[FlyingSquirrel]

15. Still waiting for that link on how much money he has left.

[FrenchieCat]

17. Here....go through this material and crunch the numbers.....

http://www.rollingstone.com/nationalaffairs/index.php/2007/09/28/trippi-oping-out-of-public-financing-would-leave-nominee-like-dukakis-getting-the-living-shit-kicked-out-of-him-all-summer-long/

http://www.alternet.org/blogs/peek/72335/

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/10/2/125557/813

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/10/1/19133/0902

[FlyingSquirrel]

19. Uh, no you gave the number so post a link. One other thing:

Does ALL the money JE has spent so far which I'm sure you'll eventually link to, count towards that spending limit? Before you answer, consider that the spending limit is set for each state in advance so JE cannot possibly have spent very much of the money that he will be allowed to spend. Some of the money that he did spend came before he accepted public financing. He has to return any money he collected for the GE, but not for the primaries. I don't believe that money he collected and spent before accepting public financing counts toward the limit.

"The presidential public funding system further constrains participating candidates by imposing limits on how much they can spend in individual states. These limits are calculated using the voting age population of the state, after a base level allotment."

http://www.whitehouseforsale.org/problem.cfm

I'm not saying JE will not face an uphill battle but I certainly don't agree that he's already spent half his money. Also, there's still the 527's that can spend on his behalf.

[FrenchieCat]

20. Look, if you don't really want to know, be my guest!

and send JE some money tonight. I'm certainly not stopping you.

I'm just providing you with information you can do with what you will...and from good progressive sites, at that.

[FlyingSquirrel]

21. It's incumbent upon a person making a statement to link to exactly

where their factual information came from, with a pertinent quotation. If you aren't gonna do that and also respond to my other point above, then I think we're about done here and you can stop making your unsupported allegation that he's spent half his money already.

[FrenchieCat]

22. Please.......after a grueling day (but wonderful day)

and my time here since 2003, and thousands of post, I don't really need for you to tell me what it is incumbent for me to do.

I'm known for providing plenty of information, but I don't have to bow down just cause you command that it be provided to you in a particular format. :eyes:

Anyways...whatever numbers you see in the KOS post (3rd link), just add at least 10-12 million more spent since last quarter (3rd qtr) to today. 4th quarter numbers will be out shortly.

[FlyingSquirrel]

23. I just love the smug way that some DU'ers use their longtime status...

to say that they are somehow above doing the same things they demand of others.

:eyes:

Now before I put you back on ignore (had to take you off to even see your first post in this thread) perhaps you could indulge me and actually respond. And I don't just mean a link to the amount he has spent, I mean a real response to my full argument above that acknowledges he has spent a lot of money but does NOT concede that everything he has spent thus far counts toward his $50 million cap.

How much has he spent in each state that he is competing in which counts toward the cap? Does the money he spent before accepting public financing count towards the cap? Enquiring minds want to know, and since you're the one making the audacious statement that he has "spent half his money already", you're the one that needs substantiate it. Longtime DU'er or not. "known for providing plenty of information" or not.

I'm not asking anyone to 'bow down' to me, I'm asking someone who is attempting to drive people away from my preferred candidate based on a "simple math" argument to substantiate that argument or drop it. Simple as that.

[Cronus Protagonist]

16. Edwards is getting my money too

I can't let the GOP pick our candidate. I just can't.

[davsand]

6. Maybe New Hampshire voters are tired of the way things are right now.

Maybe those "soft" Hil supporters are thinking, "Gee, I sure am sick to death of the same old thing I want some new--DIFFERENT blood."

They saw Edwards last time, and he did not win (he was in 4th place I think?) He does have name recognition and fairly low negatives so he might pick up some of those votes.

Hil is a known entity with both strong support and equally strong negatives. Most people had an opinion on her when she announced and I doubt she's gonna gain much ground beyond where she is now.



Regards!



Laura

[XemaSab]

9. Teh negroes will keep Edwards from winning in teh South! Oh noes!

Um... he's a native South Carolinian. If he's a native son and polling badly, I don't think you can pin that on black people. :(