Here is another ....Clinton 36 - Obama 29 - Edwards 13

[suston96]

http://www.suffolk.edu/25998.html

* Obama Advances on Clinton in NH Democratic Primary

1/5/2008

On the heels of an Iowa caucus win, Sen. Barack Obama is within striking distance of Hillary Clinton with just three days to go until New Hampshire voters go to the polls, according to a new 7NEWS/Suffolk University tracking poll released this morning.

In the Democratic Primary, Clinton (36 percent) leads Obama (29 percent), John Edwards (13 percent), Bill Richardson (4 percent), Joe Biden (1 percent), Dennis Kucinich (1 percent) and Mike Gravel (1 percent). Twelve percent were undecided.

More at site......

[skipos]

1. I am filing that one next to ARG's Iowa poll. In the outlier cabinet. nt

[SaveElmer]

8. Based on?...nt

[skipos]

14. Looking at the averages of polls

Clinton and McCain has narrow leads on average BEFORE Iowa. Now you are telling me that 3rd place Clinton and 2nd place Romney have gone up? Nah.
I didn't believe the ARG poll of Iowa for the same reason, it was too far off. Believe what you want.

[ccpup]

11. ARG is a NH based polling outfit

and famous for the strength and accuracy of their NH polling. Just fyi. :hi:

[skipos]

22. Well, ARG had Hillary 4% above Obama BEFORE Iowa. You think she has increased her lead?

I don't.

[ccpup]

23. don't know

I was just offering information I thought was interesting.

[Hippo_Tron]

31. First ARG post Iowa poll has Obama up 12 over Hillary

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

I look forward to the debate tonight.

[Selatius]

2. Can independents vote in NH's Dem primary? Or are we talking strictly registered Dems? n/t

[Thrill]

5. Independents vote in the NH Primary

[mckeown1128]

10. Independents can vote but...

it doesn't matter the new Rasmussen NH poll has Obama ahead among both groups.

[Zynx]

3. I think the Suffolk poll is bullcrap. Obama is ahead big time by now.

In 2004, they showed extreme volatility and Dean closer than he really was as far as I can remember.

[Joe the Revelator]

4. This is a tracking poll

Only one day is post Iowa.

[Quixote1818]

15. Thats right. It basicaly means very little. nt

[thesubstanceofdreams]

6. Nice try

That's a rolling poll and half the sample was taken before Iowa's results were known, Obama has gained 5 points from yesterday on that poll, which has been a consistent outlier in Clinton's favor. Tomorrow's poll will probably show a tie.

[goldcanyonaz]

7. Must be an outlier if Clinton is leading.

[ElizabethDC]

21. Not based on the other NH polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/new_hampshire-primary.html

[Joe the Revelator]

24. All taken before Iowa....

[ElizabethDC]

27. Yep, but since there's only been one taken after Iowa . . .

we can't know whether it's reflective of a general trend or just an outlier.

[Joe the Revelator]

30. Well we can say for damn sure that a poll taken before Iowa has no effect on the race today

Too much has changed.

[skipos]

9. And they have Mitt leading McCain?!? Sounds like an outlier to me. nt

[KennedyGuy]

12. Oh please..don't you know they're all phony unless Obama is ahead?

are you mad?

[suston96]

13. Whatta funny scene this is...

On another thread Rasmussen is adored as the prophet of hope...

On this thread another pollster Ch 7Suffolk is cursed as the prophet of doom...until its numbers come out for Obama.

My God what is the matter with you people....? Cannot you see what you look like?

[Joe the Revelator]

16. You posted a tracking poll with half of the same taken before Iowa

Can you not see how you look?

[KennedyGuy]

20. You're catching on now...

[TwilightZone]

26. Bingo

It's an interesting transformation. Polls were for the longest time declared utterly irrelevant and were to be completely ignored until the past two weeks or so. Now, they're golden, as long as they say what people want them to say.

[slick8790]

17. Suffolk has always had ridiculously inflated percentages for clinton.

In the past few polls, she's had a +14, +16, +17, and +10. Most pre-Iowa polls show clinton with no more than a 2-6 point lead over obama. I think the numbers on this poll are bullshit. Either way, take a look at the trends. Within the suffolk numbers, she's trended down from +17 to +7.

[skipos]

18. .

.

[MadBadger]

19. This poll isnt an outlier...It shows the strong trend towards Obama

This poll only polls one day after the caucus and one day before the results. And what it shows is Obama up 4 points and Clinton down 1 point.

[suston96]

25. If the posters here dissing my OP had taken the trouble to go to the link....

...they would have seen it as a tracking poll and made the necessary adjustments.

Polls decide nothing. They indicate trends - that's all.

Obama will win NH. The question is by how much? How many delegates will each of them get?

NH splits the delegates. Not winner take all.

[Sulawesi]

28. This poll has been showing HRC way up, and that is closing, trending to Obama

[suston96]

29. Precisely. That's what polls do - indicate trends.

[Infinite Hope]

32. They didn't get the memo: Biden dropped out. n/t