Polls Are Nonsense! How Can Any Poll Be Meaningful When Nobody Will Answer The Phone?

[DaLittle Kitty]

Do NOT Believe These Polls. Fully 8/10 calls are not being answered. How can you conduct a MEANINGFUL poll WHEN NO ONE WILL ANSWER THE PHONE? Cell Phone Owners W/O Landlines notwithstanding the skew.

I Made Calls For Edwards last night and 8/10 did not answer and of the rest, most were UNDECIDED, and of those who were decided, all but two would NOT say who they were for.

So these folks know the game and they ARE KEEPING THEIR CARDS CLOSE TO THE VEST!

The New Hampshire Polls ARE TOTAL NONSENSE!

The ONLY Poll that these New Hampshire folks will participate in RELIABLY will take place on Tuesday.

Look for a Big Surprise!

I Can postulate that the Big # for Obama comes from Obama Supporters NEW to political participation anxious to tell someone who they support.

That IS What These #'s ARE ALL ABOUT! :think:

[cali]

1. Actually, polling in a state like NH is quite likely to

be fairly accurate.
We'll see tomorrow.

[Bill McBlueState]

2. If only 20% answer...

That just means you have five times as many calls to make before you reach the target sample size. Other than the need for more phone bankers, there's no obstacle to getting a valid sample.

[Dawgs]

Duplicate.

How the hell did that happen?

[Tesha]

8. Under high-load conditions, DU's software screws up and posts your reply multiple times. (NT)

[Dawgs]

3. Obama supporters were saying the same thing in Iowa.

...until the DMR poll came out. Supporters of other candidates disregarded that poll and it turned out to be dead on.

Obama 46%, Clinton 32%, Edwards 18%

[Dawgs]

4. Duplicate.

[Bitwit1234]

5. I'm not doubting that they do call people

but what my son noted is true. If they call people and they say the YOUTH VOTE is for Obama, who do they call. They don't call cell phones, so answer this, what YOUTH VOTER usually has a land line. Land lines are mostly used by older Americans and I know damn well that with all the rhetoric Obama has spewed against senior citizens they aren't gonna vote for him.

[RoadRage]

17. and I know damn well that with all the rhetoric Obama has spewed against senior citizens

What?? What Rhetoric is Obama spewing? I've heard that quite a few Seniors are planning voting for Obama. More for Hillary, but Obama is creeping... please explain?

[PATRICK]

6. Call blocking

First everyone gets too many calls and the ones that are substantive take a lot of individual time. It is a technique to demonstrate your candidate more than change minds. In December people have incursions of charities trying to play the end of the tax season. Not enough and they go into January(maybe some work for the GOP, I wouldn't put this sneaky flood past them). Digital phones and others display numbers that people can ignore with a little practice at recognizing numbers from bill collectors, charities and unlisted others.

If you do a lot of calling and get through lists to the tougher calls like the GOPers and conservative Independents or angry Dems you learn to prefer the unanswered.

Polls are based on that experience and worse and the fact their samplings are relatively small and not invasive to the point where a Heisenberg effect heats the electorate to outrage(at phone calls). There are many reasons to put polls into a more realistic perspective. One can get the feel oneself from the hints, the progress, the changes in temperament over the weeks. That's probably all it is with more sophisticated extrapolations. If I had plus or minus 5% I could tell you the same results from phone calling for a candidate so long as you don't get fooled by listening to the choir(staunch Dems only) and misinterpret the anger of staunch GOPers(fight or despair?).

One can argue that enthusiastic answerers(like the reluctant Bush voter)is not something real regarding voting. Enthusiasm adds up to turnout, especially in a primary. Does that mean those not answering are going to swarm the polls to write in Bush?

It takes too much time for momentum to have full effect or shift. These quick primaries don't need pollsters, just someone who can hang on and nod. Obama in this case is the beneficiary of a sudden surge of getting started toward real change. Swift, large and in motion of itself. And yes, people with good candidates sound like all others of past eras left behind. Things can change but the real smart party leaders have it set so it almost can't once started.

[onyourleft]

7. What calls?

I have yet this campaign season to get a phone call from any candidate. Yes, I have a land line and a cell phone. I'm home 24/7 because I work at home. In fact, I have not left the house for two weeks. I also have caller ID and check it routinely if I do leave the house. I'm listed in the phone book under my name. I keep seeing the posts regarding all the campaign phone calls and just shake my head. Guess I'm out of the loop somehow. :)

[Tesha]

10. If you're a registered voter and have been at your current address...

If you're a registered voter and have been at your
current address and phone number for a year or so,
it's almost inconceivable that you haven't been
called a dozen times or more.

All the campaigns us calling lists prepared by
taking voter registration lists, adding phone
numbers, and other information as it is gleaned.

I was making calls the other night and yes, 9/10
or more were "no answer" calls; people in the
Granite State are worn-down by all of this.

Tesha

[onyourleft]

11. We are registered Democrats and have been in this...

...house for almost five years. We have not received one phone call yet this campaign season. We have also had the same phone number. :)

[Tesha]

12. Are you sure your phone's ringer is working ;-) ? (NT)

[onyourleft]

15. Absolutely.

I do get calls, just not from political candidates. :) Will I make it through today? With the primary tomorrow, there is not much time left. I wish the companies wanting me to take a credit card would lose my number. :)

[DaLittle Kitty]

16. Thanks For the Validation Tesha!

:)

[Tesha]

18. No problem! We're one of the weirdos who still answer our phone. ;-)

No problem! We're one of the weirdos who still answer our
phone and answer our doorbell;), but we appear to be a
distinct minority at this point in the election cycle.

Tesha

[onyourleft]

19. If I left the impression that I didn't believe you...

...I apologize. That was not my intent at all. I actually agree that I think the polls are unreliable. Anyone who takes the time to make calls for candidates should receive kudos. I personally couldn't do it as cold calling, even for my business, is not something with which I am comfortable. :)

[chascarrillo]

9. Thank you for your resaoned and scientific explanation

Put those polling companies in their place, indeed,

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Why Are You Relying On Polls Here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3977394

[CTLawGuy]

14. whoops!

burn! Well played DSB