How Many Kerry Wins on Tuesday Before You Call It A Done Deal?

[rucky]

Are there enough Delegates up for grabs on Super Tues to lock it up for Kerry? What does Edwards have to do to stay viable?

Even though I don't vote til May, it somehow doesn't bother me. I'm sorta eager to get on to focusing on Bush, as opposed to examining the differences between Kerry & Edwards.

[Sandpiper]

1. If Kerry wins big

In California, New York and Ohio, Edwards will probably be in too deep a hole to climb out of.

[revcarol]

2. When Kerry wins 2,161 delegates, THEN it's a done deal.

I foresee a brokered convention.

[Nicholas_J]

3. Edwards

could win Georgia, (likely) Maryland (possible)

Kerry pretty likely to win the rest.

[orangeotter]

4. georgia

GA will be close Edwards has been a good closer since Kerry became the front runner. Kerry is up by about 20% in GA according to zogby but that has closed by half in the last week and there is still 25% undecided.

[pacifictiger]

5. the longer there is a multipack

who are only politely pointing out differences between them and going after bush with all barrells, the longer the free media will help to get their message out. Once the others are not being heard, bush's paid$$media will take exclusive center role. The country needs to have the one-on-one candidate period condensed to as short a time as possible.

[Meshuga]

6. Kerry is ahead in Georgia and...

I'm getting a bunch of people to vote here in MD on Tuesday. Kerry will have a big representation here. I made a bunch of Kerry fans register because the MD primaries mean something this year.

[BradCKY]

8. Kerry is slipping in the Georgia Polls

However I agree with most on here. If Kerry sweeps all ten states on Super Tuesday, its pretty much all over.

[rhite5]

7. Do the Math.

Kerry does not just have to win x number of states. He has to have a MAJORITY of the delegates overall, not just a plurality. Delegates depend on results in EACH Congressional District.
There are a LOT of districts in the big states, especially NY and CA.

Also the Super Delegates who are mostly uncommitted have to be taken into account too. You won't know about them until July.

It is not as simple as the Electoral College is. It is definitely not a "winner take all" system. Not a good idea to count chickens too early.

(on edit) Candidates that have withdrawn or are on hiatus have delegates too and could gain more. In most cases we won't know about them either until the convention. Each such delegate makes his own decision about how to change his vote although most will take direction from his/her original candidate.

[WilliamPitt]

9. More than 1,150 delegates are tied to the March 2 races.

Kerry has 744, Edwards has 220, Dean has 179, Sharpton has 16, Kucinich has 8.

2,161 are needed to secure the nomination.

So, if Kerry pulls a clean sweep and picks up all 1,150+ delegates on Tuesday, he will technically be short of the nomination by abolut 300 or so.