http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/class_not_race_divides_the_dem.htmlJanuary 17, 2008
By Marie Cocco
WASHINGTON -- A truce has been called in the racial feud between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but not before it stained both with the residue of their own follies. The peril for the Democratic Party is not as obvious as media simpletons say.
It is not only true that Clinton, if she is the eventual nominee, could suffer from lingering bitterness among African-American voters, who must turn out strongly if any Democrat is to be elected president. And it's not that Obama will lose white women and men who have supported him in Iowa and New Hampshire, and who already support him in significant numbers in polls conducted throughout the country. These voters probably made up their minds about the two candidates some time ago.
The greater danger is that white, working and middle-class voters may turn away because the racial shouting match did not -- and will not, if it resumes -- speak to them at all.
The deepest division in the Democratic primary campaign until now has not been between blacks and whites, though we are likely to see stark evidence of that in the upcoming South Carolina primary. A fault line already is visible between upper-income, educated whites and those with lower incomes and less education. The upscale voters have gone with Obama, the downscale with Clinton.
The divide was hinted at as early as Iowa, but went mostly unremarked in the euphoria over Obama's win. Nonetheless, Iowa caucusgoers began to shape a profile in which Obama fares worse among those with lower incomes and among union members, for example, than he does with more affluent voters. These contours took clear form in New Hampshire.
There, Clinton beat Obama by a full 15 percentage points among those with family incomes of $50,000 or less, according to exit polls. Obama beat Clinton among those who make $50,000 or more. Clinton won easily among less-educated voters, and among union members. In short, she ran strongly among traditional Democratic groups that have been a bulwark of the party since the New Deal. Obama's New Hampshire vote tracked closely with the slice of votes won by other Democratic candidates who ran insurgencies against the establishment -- Howard Dean, Bill Bradley and Gary Hart are the most obvious examples.
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