I'm posting this because it's relevant now.
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Still, the Culinary endorsement could be decisive for Obama.
Here's why:
Although the union is coy about how many of its members are registered to vote, the endorsement is expected to give Obama at least 10,000 supporters in the caucus, in a contest whose turnout estimates have ranged from 28,000 to 100,000.In a caucus, supporters of a candidate literally stand together on one side of the room, demonstrating to everyone who is supporting whom. Many Strip shift workers, Culinary workers, will be voting at so-called "at-large" caucus sites on the Strip.
This means Culinary members, for whom unity is a creed, will be able to enforce discipline. Clinton can no longer expect to win many delegates at those at-large sites.
The infusion of locked-down voters is only the most obvious benefit, however.
<snip>
The Culinary is known as the most politically active and organized union in the state and one of the most active in the country. Political observers in Nevada have long assumed the union would provide the kind of organization that could deliver victory.
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Finally, Culinary leadership, including Secretary-Treasurer D. Taylor and Political Director Pilar Weiss, are two of the most politically savvy — and feared — players in Nevada Democratic politics. State legislators and others are wary of crossing them.
In 2006, for example, the Culinary placed Lynette Boggs, then a Clark County commissioner the union opposed, under surveillance to prove she was not living in her district.
Her opponent, with the help of Culinary volunteers walking the district, beat Boggs in a landslide.
Taylor is revered by his membership for negotiating impressive wage and benefit gains in 2002 and again last year.
<snip>
Clinton has advantages of her own, including a massive organization, a slew of political endorsements and momentum.
Also, President Bill Clinton won Nevada twice, and the couple is beloved by rank-and-file Democrats here.
This sudden parity between Obama and Clinton in Nevada comes after nearly a year of Clinton appearing to be the dominant force in Nevada, leading in polls and racking up political endorsements.
The early Clinton dominance was always somewhat misleading, however.
The polling has never been considered reliable, because Nevada has never conducted an early presidential caucus, and so it's largely unknown who will show up.
And it has always been assumed that the numbers would shift considerably with a victory by Obama in Iowa or New Hampshire.
<snip>
So now Nevada comes down to this: Who can identify supporters and get them to the caucus?
<snip>
A final question is what role John Edwards will play. The former senator from North Carolina placed a distant third in New Hampshire, but he's an effective campaigner and has a sizable group of supporters, a big Nevada staff and the endorsement of the 12,500-member carpenters union.
He has hammered Clinton in recent months as the candidate of the status quo, but his message of change could take votes from Obama, who is driving the same theme.
All of this is unfolding as a race that appeared a week ago to be a mixed martial arts brawl — fast, furious and decisive — and has turned instead into a lengthy chess match of state-by-state contests.
With the Culinary endorsement, the Obama team surely sees victory in its grasp here.
<snip>
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7831.html
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