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Well, as many of you know I am a fairly fervent Clark supporter, and have been fairly quiet around here of late. What I am referring to in the title of this thread, however, is not just about Wesley Clark and his failed candidacy. It's about changing the way important decisions are made in this country. It's been an amazing year, hasn't it?
I see no point in speaking ill about the two leading Democratic contenders left fighting for the nomination. Neither of them excites or inspires me, and neither man fundamentally challenges the way disagreements between powerful interests in this country are resolved. Kerry and Edwards differ somewhat from each other, and they both differ more significantly from Bush/Cheney. All these differences have degrees of meaning. The difference between a Kerry or Edwards Presidency and four more years of Bush is sufficiently important to motivate me to organize for the Democratic Party in the General Election. I know I will be thrilled if either of these men defeat Bush in November. But I am left sorrowful over how we fell short of something potentially historic. The way I see it, there were three candidates of real interest fighting for the Democratic Party nomination: Dean, Clark, and Kucinich. This is my take on what could have been and why it isn't. Obviously I will skip over tons of details and make opinionated leaps of faith while doing so.
For the longest time, in a knee jerk kind of way, I held the opinion that Kucinich couldn't win the nomination, let alone the Fall Election. I believed he would never win enough backing, or raise enough money, to become viable as a major candidate in the crowded field he was running in. Very recently I revised my thinking regarding Dennis. I remembered how what it looked like well over a year ago, when both Dean and Kucinich were relatively little know opponents of the gathering Iraq war. Dean emerged from that near oblivion to become a major candidate. I now suppose that Kucinich might possibly have made that difficult leap also. However Dean succeeded in making that leap by tapping into a huge Army of volunteers, who were able to help him raise tens of millions of dollars. How Dean pulled that off is an amazing story that books will be certainly be written on. My revised thinking on Kucinich is as follows. Both men were marginalized with an uphill battle to be taken seriously. The odds against either man pulling that off were quite long. When Dean managed to gather significant forward momentum he did so by tapping into most of the grass roots energy then available to fuel a powerful insurgency candidacy.
Why Dean and not Kucinich? A good question that I won't address. My point is simply that Dean won the race for that available slot. It might have been different for Kucinich had Dean not run the campaign that he did. When Dean took off Dennis wasn't left with a big enough grass roots base to draw from to overcome the traditional advantages that mainstream candidates routinely start out with. So there is one what if. What if Dean hadn't moved left and thrown in his lot with grass roots activists? Would Kucinich have been significantly stronger? Premise Number One; Dean significantly hurt Kucinich.
I think Dean came extremely close to locking up the nomination early, and as ambivalent as I am about saying this, I think it was Wesley Clark who kept that from happening. By December it seemed that every campaign other than Dean's and Clark's was dead in the water. Kerry was falling toward single digits nationally and was slipping further behind in New Hampshire. Edwards was plain stuck in low single digits. Lieberman was a dud. Gerhardt never really interested anyone beyond his hard core Union base, and there was no reason to think that would change. He was struggling against Dean in Iowa. Dean kept piling up money and everyone else was struggling to raise it. Except for Wesley Clark. Despite having been written off for dead by the media weeks before, Clark actually started rising in polls again. He got onto a lot of media interview shows and actually did well on them. He started connecting with people in New Hampshire. Most important though, Clark showed that he could raise big money, the kind needed to wage a long hard fought campaign against Dean. Clark dampened the sense of inevitability about a Dean victory just enough to slow down Dean's bandwagon when it was poised to achieve break away momentum. More politicians like New Jersey's Governor would likely have thrown in with Dean after Gores endorsement, had none of the other candidates shown any ability at that critical moment to compete effectively with Dean. Clark did, which kept some players on the fence, and the race still open, which gave Dean's opponents and the media additional time to tear into his vulnerabilities. Premise Number Two: Clark significantly hurt Dean.
The conventional wisdom was that Clark's campaign was organized around the premise that Dean was his primary opponent for the nomination, and that it fizzled when Dean began his collapse and Kerry became the front runner. I think that is only partially true. Obviously Clark positioned himself to compete with Dean as his primary opponent, all the candidates to varying degrees did that while Dean was on top, but I don't think Dean's quick "collapse" doomed Clark. I think Gephardt's total collapse doomed Clark, and I don't hear anyone talk about this. Gephardt was supposed to finish first or second in Iowa, but he came in a distant fourth, well behind Dean. Very few Gephardt voters switched to Dean, they switched to Kerry and Edwards. It was the combination of the Dean collapse AND the even larger Gephardt collapse that allowed Kerry and Edwards to roll up such impressive numbers in Iowa which established their much talked about momentum.
Kerry would have emerged strong in either case, simply by coming in first, but Edwards needed his very strong showing to feed his media backed surge. As it was, Clark still came in third AHEAD of Edwards in New Hampshire. Had Clark come in a more convincing third, Clark would have left New Hampshire with momentum rather than technically remaining barely still in the race, which is the way the media played those NH results. If Gephardt had not totally collapsed in Iowa, had he finished with even 15 to 20 percent of the vote there, which is still far less than anyone was predicting, it would have dulled Edwards surge by robbing him of votes, and to a lesser extent Kerry's win would not have been as impressive Clark's strategy was essentially sound, he could have weathered Dean alone hemorrhaging votes to Kerry and Edwards in Iowa, or Gephardt alone imploding, but it is always hard to prepare for the perfect storm.
Still Clark had one other chance, and here is where Dean hurt Clark. Dean's strategy once his campaign caught fire, despite public statements to the contrary, was to score a decisive and quick knock out. Coming in a distant third in Iowa was a disaster for Dean, even before "I have a scream" was relentlessly spun against him. Followed by a mediocre at best second place finish in New Hampshire, Dean's campaign was unravelling fast, with no prospects for a respectable showing the following week either. The money was gone. Had Dean done something similar to what Clark did after coming in third in Tennessee, had Dean conceded that the race had slipped away from him and withdrawn at that point, Clark could have cornered enough of the Anti War vote to perhaps win Tennessee or come in closer at the least. Clark would have picked up many Dean voters in Wisconsin and might have won that State, where Clark was always much stronger than Edwards. We could have had a real outsider running against Kerry in the finals. Premise Number Three: Dean prolonging his campaign those extra two or three weeks significantly hurt Clark.
I for one don't believe that Dean ran to hurt Kucinich, or that Clark ran to hurt Dean, or that Dean tried to hurt Clark by not leaving the race earlier than he did. Each of those men, and their supporters, believed they were the best man for the job. I suppose many Dean supporters liked Kucinich but backed Dean partially because they thought Dean's record as Governor of Vermont made him more electable in the General Election. I suppose many Clark supporters liked Dean but backed Clark partially because they thought Clark's military record made him more electable than Dean in the General Election. And I suppose many Kerry voters chose him over all of our guys partially because they thought his record as a seasoned politician with military experience made him more electable than anyone else in the General Election.
Anyway, those are a few of the thoughts I've been mulling over. There are many more, including some about the present and future, but this is enough for one night's work.
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