Super Tuesday Poll Data

[MurikanDemocrat]

New York 2/20 – 2-22

Kerry 58%
Edwards 22%
Sharpton 9%
Other 7%
undecided 4%


California 2/21 – 2-23

Kerry 60%
Edwards 25%
other 10%
undecided 4%


Georgia, 2/27 – 2-28

Kerry 46%
Edwards 36%
Sharpton 9%
other 6%
undecided 3%


Connecticut 2/26 – 2-28

Kerry 64%
Edwards 22%
other 11%
undecided 3%


Maryland 2/24 – 2-26

Kerry 54%
Edwards 29%
Sharpton 7%
other 6%
undecided 4%


Rhode Island 2/23 – 2-25

Kerry 66%
Edwards 23%
other 8%
undecided 2%


Ohio 2/21 – 2-23

Kerry 53%
Edwards 30%
Kucinich 7%
other 4%
undecided 2%


no poll data for Vermont, Minnesota, or Massechusetts

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[SangamonTaylor]

1. old data, Edwards is surging n/t

[MurikanDemocrat]

2. It's all within 3 to 7 days. Not old.

If you have more current data feel free to post it.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. Surging?!?!?!

He's only within 10% in one of those polls!!! He'd need one hell of a surge!

[Nicholas_J]

7. Not surging at all:

In national Rasmussen Polls, Edwards has had two stright polls in which he is falling back:

Kerry 47% Edwards 31%

Kerry Steady, Edwards Down a Point

National Democrats

Kerry 47%
Edwards 31%
Sharpton 7%
Kucinich 3%
Not Sure 12%
RasmussenReports.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

March 1, 2004--As Super Tuesday approaches, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leads North Carolina Senator John Edwards by 16 percentage points among Democrats nationally. The latest Rasmussen Reports tracking poll shows Kerry with 47% support compared to 31% for Edwards.
Kerry is down seven points from his peak of 54% earlier in the week. Support for Edwards fell a point today and is now down three from earlier in the week. As a result, Kerry is well positioned to effectively wrap up the nomination tomorrow.

Polls from the Super Tuesday states strongly favor Kerry, who holds big leads just about everywhere. Kerry could sweep them all. Even if Edwards wins a single state somewhere, it is hard to see a path for him to win the nomination. However, if the Democrats do not win back the White House this year, Edwards has certainly positioned himself as a top-tier candidate for 2008.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Democrats_Ballot_Preference_2004.htm

And latest reports from Saturday and Sunday have him Kerry beating him rather soundly in Georgia:

Zogby Tracking (3/1) 45.6% 27.4% 18.0%

ARG (2/27-2/28) 48% 38% 7%

Columbia Dispatch Latest Poll has Edwards dropping back:


Poll: Kerry has big lead heading into Tuesday's primary

Associated Press


COLUMBUS, Ohio - Sen. John Kerry had a more than 2-1 lead in Ohio over Sen. John Edwards going into the state's Democratic presidential primary Tuesday, according to a poll by The Columbus Dispatch.

The Massachusetts senator was at 59 percent to 28 percent for Edwards, according to the poll's results, which were published Sunday. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Cleveland was third with 5 percent.

The mail survey of 3,793 Ohio Democrats, conducted Feb. 19 through Friday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The response rate was 31 percent.

For the poll, the newspaper obtained a list of registered voters from the secretary of state and used a computer to randomly choose who would receive surveys. Those who had not voted since 1999 were eliminated.


http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/8068486.htm

New York Kerry has enormormous lead on Edwards

Kerry has increased his lead over Edwards in Maryland over the weekend:

Kerry Widens Lead in Maryland

John Kerry has widened his lead over John Edwards among likely Democratic primary voters in Maryland according to a survey by the American Research Group. Kerry leads Edwards 46% to 34%, with 11% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided. Ballot preference for Edwards is unchanged from a survey completed February 25.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of registered Democrats in Maryland saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic presidential preference primary on March 2, 2004. The interviews were conducted February 27 and 28, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/md/

Surging means going forward. re;ative to your competition. Many leate polls show Edwards fallling behind Kerry, in the states that he has camapaigned the hardest in.

[MoonRiver]

10. Link to any polls supporting that? n/t

[West Coast Democrat]

4. Does Edwards have to win at least one state?

or will he stay in regardless of what happens?

[displacedtexan]

5. Zogby, ARG, Mason-Dixon, anyone?

From the article:

But the majority of New York's Democrats live in the southern part of the state, in New York City and its suburbs, and Edwards appears to have no chance of winning the state overall. A poll released over the weekend by the American Research Group, showed Kerry with an overwhelming lead of 54 percent to 21 percent over Edwards.

snip

According to a survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Kerry had an overwhelming lead in Maryland, running more than 3-to-1 -- 62 percent to 20 percent -- ahead of his North Carolina rival.

snip

And Kerry retained a substantial lead in Ohio over the weekend, according to an ARG poll, with the support of 47 percent of those surveyed compared with Edwards' 26 percent.

snip

Polls, however, have shown Kerry with a lead in Georgia, although the size of his margin varied widely on two surveys released over the weekend. An ARG poll showed the margin at 48 percent to 38 percent in Kerry's favor, a strong showing for Kerry, but one that suggested that the lead was not out of reach for Edwards. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, however, published a survey by Zogby Research yesterday that showed a significantly larger advantage for Kerry -- 45 percent to 26 percent, with nearly a fifth of the voters still undecided.

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=7801

[Thrill]

6. surging?

Zogby poll for Sunday in GA

Kerry 45.6%
Edwards 27.4%

http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/0204a/29debatepoll.html

[Clark4Prez]

8. It's a downward surge, AKA a nosedive.

I thought that Edwards would tighten up the lead in these polls, but it's looking like curtains for him. Who knows maybe at the very last second, he will pull out of it, but I doubt it. We'll see tommorrow.

[Kathleen04]

9. Survey USA for GA

President, GA Dem Primary
3/1/2004

Kerry
46%

Edwards
42%

[MurikanDemocrat]

11. kick