What would happen if US pulled out of NAFTA/WTO?

[zulchzulu]

Poll question: What would happen if US pulled out of NAFTA/WTO?

Do you understand what would happen economically if we did?

[Darranar]

1. Other: mild price rise in the US...

cutbacks in profits for multinational corporations, and growth in homegrown industries everywhere.

[rdfi-defi]

2. it is not as cut and dry as your choices suggest

there are 2 threads going on the subject of nafta/jobs/trade, pick one and join the discussion.

[arcos]

3. No economy would collapse...

naturally, all other countries would raise tariffs and there would be less free trade. But I can't understand why any economy would collapse...

[Taeger]

4. We would suffer some inflation ...

We would also suffer some shortages as some countries would TRY to retaliate. Ultimately, the customer is ALWAYS right.

Many jobs would return VERY quickly. Most important, all those capital investments being made in overseas production would switch VERY QUICKLY back to US sites. A lot of those shuttered factories would be reopened VERY quickly.

Hopefully, our tariffs would be high enough that manufacturing of high tech goods would switch back to the United States AWAY from Southeast Asia and the crosshairs of the Chinese Military.

[ShaneGR]

5. Trade War on a massive scale leading to WWIII

The European Union, China, most of South America, and even the Canadians would immidiately slap crippling sanctions on all of our exports. We in turn would do the same. After the collapse of the world market and the start of a new great depression, WWIII would ensue.

Seriously, that's what would happen. We cannot just withdraw, we can however negotiate our position within the current agreements.

[Dookus]

6. worldwide

trade war

[corporatewhore]

7. There would be a massive celebration in the streets

that would be overshadowed by the celebration when everynation gets out

[John_H]

8. Canada and Mexico would fall over each other

trying to propose labor, farmer, and environmental protection.

IMHO, What Kucinich knows is that the beauty of threatening to pull out of NAFTA is that we don't have to pull out of NAFTA. The threat alone would force the Mexicans and Canadians to accept NAFTA as what it should be--an old fashiond trade pact that's trilateral instead of Bilateral. They'd rather give in on Labor, farmer, and environmental protection than deal with us one on one.

[scarletwoman]

9. WWIII!!! Economic collapse!!! Fear! Fear! Fear! - what bullshit!

America's great middle class was formed in the pre-NAFTA days, we actually made stuff, right here -- made our own stuff ourselves! Even made enough stuff to export!

Predatory corporatism is a cancer, destroying the healthy cells of living systems. We either change it or watch our planet die.

Do you want fries with your feudalism?

sw

[zulchzulu]

10. It would be an economic disaster possibly led by media-fueled scare tactic

First of all, it's not going to happen.

But if it did, it would make the 1930's depression seem like a picnic. With the signature of a trade tariff like Hoover's Hawley-Smoot Tariff, international trade would be disastrous.

Latin American, Canadian, Asian, European and American economies would collapse. Combined with rocketing inflation, it would make for some nasty events that would spin out in the aftermath.

[Nicholas_J]

11. Right now

The WTO has voted and ruled that the U.S. tax struture that favors businesses legally consitutes an illegal subsidy for businesses and the E.E.C. is voting to place large tarriffs on U.S. a large number of U.S. products and and sanctions the importation of others. The E.E.C. members are prohibited by their membership from making bi-lateral trade agreements, so pulling out of the WTO nad NAFTA would result in a complete cessation of trade with Europe. With the massive trade deficit we have with Europe, this would do more than cause a small rise in prices, it would result in a lot of manucfaturing businesses having to significantly cut back on production, resulting in relatively large layoffs. We do the bulk of our business with Canada and Mexico, but after that it is Europe. Pulliung out of NAFTA would also cause problems with our trade imbalance with Candda, whicjh is also in their favor. The current tariff and trade sanctions being suggested by the E.E.C. alone will cause a loss of over 300 million dollars this year in trade with the E.E.C. alone,double next year, and this does not even begin to deal with the effects that would be caused by pulling out of the WTO. The effects of todays massive sanctions from the E.E.C. alone which went into effect today:

In short:
The EU has imposed trade sanctions worth 4 bn US dollars (around 3.2 bn euros) on a range of US products. The dispute relates to illegal tax breaks benefiting US corporations.
Brief News:
The EU has begun levying additional tariffs on a wide range of US imports as a result of a long-running trade dispute over illegal US tax breaks. This is the first time in EU-US trade relations that sanctions have been imposed.
A US practice providing large US multinationals (including Microsoft and Boeing) with lower tax rates has been declared illegal by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The EU gave 1 March 2004 as a final deadline for US Congress to change the so-called 'foreign sales corporation' provisions. As a result of inaction by US law makers, the EU has begun imposing customs duties, with the approval of the international trade body. Countermeasures will total 4 billion dollars (around 3.2 bn euros), approximately equal to the amount of the tax breaks enjoyed by US corporations. The sanctions will hit goods such as jewelry, toys, textiles and agricultural products.

Business communities on either side of the Atlantic have been apprehensive about the spillover effects of the sanctions on EU-US trade relations and on attempts to revive the Doha round of trade talks

http://www.euractiv.com/cgi-bin/cgint.exe?204&OIDN=1507281&-home=home

EU launches tariffs against U.S.
Congress considers repeal of export credit that WTO has ruled is illegal

By PAUL NYHAN
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER

U.S. exporters began paying the price for a trade fight between the United States and European Union yesterday when the EU slapped duties on select U.S. exports in a mild hit that threatens to get worse.

In the latest move in a long-running dispute, the European Union imposed an additional 5 percent customs duty on a number of goods, from ham to a couple of Weyerhaeuser Co. products.

"The name of the game is not retaliation but compliance," EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy said in a statement. "Despite waiting for more than two years, the U.S. has not brought its legislation in line with WTO rules."

The European Union hopes to ratchet up the pressure over the course of the year, increasing the customs duty by 1 percentage point every month until it reaches 17 percent next March. In fact, the duties could reach some $300 million this year and double that in 2005.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/162776_trade02.html

This is nothing compared to the effect of a global santions that the WTO could vote for, requiring all its members to place sactions on U.S. products.

THe E.U. sanctions alone will easily cause the loss of hundreds of thousands more U.S. jobs, and a million jobs being lost is not out of the question.

The results of pulling out of WTO would rely the U.S. to rely even more on trade with Canada and Mexico, which would require more reliance on NAFTA, rather than less, so pulling out of NATFA would cut our trade with Canada and MExico even more.