Where the Votes Areby Dan BrownSimple math shows that progressives are on the rise, and that the candidate able to harness that electoral power can win.
The 2000 election numbers (rounded off):
50 million - Bush
50 million - Gore
3 million - Nader
Now it's easy enough to add together 50 million and 3 million to deduce from the fact that 53 million is BIGGER than 50 million that AMERICA VOTES FOR LIBERALS but let's dig a little deeper.
Every election consultant worth his or her salt believes in the 40/40/20 rule - it's like a religion to them.
Applying that rule shows us that:
40 million - core Republicans for Bush
40 million - core Democrats for Gore
20 million - "independents" split between Gore and Bush
Splitting the "independents" shows us that:
10 million - independents for Bush
10 million - independents for Gore
We know the "core" is in the middle, because that's how a bell curve works. Applying the bell curve to the independents gives us:
5 million - independents for Bush who wished he were more "conservative"
5 million - independents for Bush who wished he were more "compassionate" - lol, okay, liberal
~~AND~~
5 million - independents for Gore who wished he were more "conservative"
5 million - independents for Gore who wished he were more progressive, liberal, or populist
That's the way a bell curve works - I didn't invent this concept. Now, Nader got 3 million votes. It's pretty safe to surmise that ALL the votes for Nader are lined up on the ONE SIDE of the Gore bell curve, isn't it?
So then we look at the bell curves, and the numbers:
5 million - wished Bush were more conservative - voted Bush
40 million - core Republicans, voted Bush
5 million - wished Bush were more "liberal" - voted Bush
5 million - wished Gore were more conservative - voted Gore
40 million - core Democrats, voted Gore
5 million - wished Gore were more progressive, populist - voted Gore
3 million - wished Gore were more progressive, populist - voted Nader
Now, again putting aside the simple math that 53 million beats 50 million any way you look at it, we look at another interesting phenomenon:
48 million - core Democrats, plus liberal-leaning independents, plus Nader voters
~~ NEARLY EQUALS ~~
50 million - conservative-leaning Bush voters, core Republicans, liberal leaning Bush voters - EVERY BUSH VOTE
So where are the voters to cover that spread?
5 million - WHO ALREADY VOTED FOR GORE ONCE
So how many potential candidates can make it a race ONLY FOR FORMER GORE VOTERS?
Only one. The one that's already gotten the endorsement of the Green Party 2000 Vice Presidential candidate. The one who's already all BUT gotten the endorsement of the Green Party 2000 Presidential candidate. The one who takes his district with 74%. The one who takes 50% of the Republican vote in his district.
You guess which one.
We are living in the past if we think the voting public is not ready to elect a progressive, populist President. This is not the past. The key in 2004 is to beat the Republican theft spread - the Republicans will use black box voting, like they did in Georgia and Nebraska to steal the election if it's close.
The best way to beat the Republican theft spread is to start with 8 MILLION PROGRESSIVE VOTES IN YOUR POCKET before even going up against Bush - making the race a race SOLELY for former Gore voters.
Some Democratic activists, and their "core" brethren, think that you can assure victory by making it a HEAD-TO-HEAD RACE FOR 5 MILLION PREVIOUS GORE VOTERS AND 5 MILLION PREVIOUS BUSH VOTERS. I fail to see the logic in thinking that 10 MILLION SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE is greater than 8 MILLION IN THE POCKET.
Not bloody likely.
You'd have to be capable of believing that 50 million conservative votes versus 53 million progressive votes means "AMERICA DOES NOT VOTE FOR LIBERALS" in order to get sold on that kind of hogwash.
Dan Brown
Saint Paul, Minnesota
Modified. Original at:
http://www.minnesotaforkucinich.com/Articles/Local/WheretheVotesAre.pdfI was curious whether or not the 40/40/20 analysis I did above would hold up, so I measured it against the VNS exit polling numbers from 2000 and came up with this:
2000 Exit Polls Prove 40/40/20 Analysis - Kucinich Strongest Against Bushby Dan BrownAn analysis of the 2000 Election exit polling data confirms what the 40/40/20 analysis determined – Democrats will be strongest running the most progressive candidate they can find.
We start with the source of the exit polling data from VNS, found at:
http://www.udel.edu/poscir/road/course/exitpollsindex.htmlThis data clearly legitimizes the conclusions found through the use of the 40/40/20 rule to analyze the electorate, and the likely effect on the 2004 election.
The graphs says, that of the 13157 people polled:
39% self-identified as Democrats.
35% self-identified as Republicans.
27% self-identified as Independents.
(Not far off from the general framework of the 40/40/20 rule.)
Of the "independents":
45% voted for Gore.
47% voted for Bush.
(Roughly half each, as the my analysis pointed out would be the case.)
However, as it related to Nader:
2% of self-identified Democrats voted for Nader.
1% of self-identified Republicans voted for Nader.
6% of self-identified independents voted for Nader.
If we project these percentages to the 2000 election numbers, they tell us that:
There were 40,560,000 Democratic votes available. (I used "40 million" in my analysis) 104m X 39%
There were 36,400,000 Republican votes available. (Wow, weaker than I thought - again, I used "40 million" in my analysis) 104m X 35%
Nader got 811,200 Democratic votes. 40.56m X 2%
Nader got 364,000 Republican votes. 36.4m X 1%
Nader got 1,684,8000 "independent" votes. 28.08m X 6%
(Not far from his total take of about 3 million, so it looks right so far)
Unfortunately, the "vote by ideology" numbers aren't as useful as they would be if they were broken down by affiliation, but looking at them tells us a lot about the "bell curve" of the Gore vote.
First of all, "moderate" used by a Bush voter probably means "more liberal" and "moderate" used by a Gore voter probably means "more conservative" than the candidate they voted for (or that's what they thought the question was that was being asked), so each term is seen as being used in relation to the vote cast.
So, projected to the numbers, the total looks like this:
20,800,000 self-identified "liberals"
52,000,000 self-identified "moderates"
30,160,000 self-identified "conservative"
But much more telling is the bell curve in the Gore total:
Gore got 16,640,000 liberal votes.
Gore got 27,040,000 moderate votes.
Gore got 5,127,200 conservative votes.
Nader got 1,248,000 liberal votes.
Nader got 1,040,000 moderate votes.
Nader got 51,272 conservative votes.
In the bell curve analysis following the 40/40/20 rule strictly, Gore got "40 million" core/moderate votes (these would be people who in the above example self-identified as closely related to what they thought the "middle" would be), and then under the 40/40/20 rule (splitting the "20%" between Bush and Gore and then again to form the sides of the bell curve) he was determined to have gotten 5 million votes from people who thought he should be more "conservative" and 5 million from people who thought he should be more "liberal."
Thus the 40/40/20 rule determined the "shape" of the bell curve to be 80% center, and 10% on each side, but the numbers from the exit polling data present an even more shocking conclusion - the bell curve is even flatter and even more sloped to the "left" than the 40/40/20 rule was able to discern!
While the number of self-identified "Democrats" in the exit poll isn't far off the mark from where the 40/40/20 rule proposed it would be (and Bush and Gore both split each other's take, cancelling out each other's affiliation vote), the ideology numbers in the Gore column are really telling.
Fully 35% of Gore's voters identified themselves as to the "left" of the "core" if that is what they perceived as "liberal" in the question of ideology - relative to vote cast.
The 40/40/20 rule projected that 5 million, or 10%, of Gore's take voted for him wishing he were more "liberal or populist."
Only 55% of Gore's voters equated themselves with the "core" if by that is meant "moderate" (again, relative to vote cast).
But in the 40/40/20 rule analysis, the "core" or "center" of the bell curve is worth 80% - the bell curve is clearly much flatter than the 40/40/20 analysis alone was able to pick up.
Only, and most importantly, in the tally of the "conservatives" was the 40/40/20 analysis practically spot on. Exit polls show that about 5 million voted for Gore wishing he were more "conservative" and that's almost exactly what the 40/40/20 analysis predicted would be the case.
The 40/40/20 analysis, determining Kucinich as the strongest candidate, supposed that Kucinich would get all Nader's voters.
But from the above numbers, let's shave off the "conservatives" for Nader - if Kucinich takes the 2,228,000 "liberal" and "moderate" Nader voters (remember, the 40/40/20 analysis said 3 million), then Kucinich is almost exactly where the analysis said he'd be.
And the exit polling numbers put 5.1 million votes into the "conservative voted for Gore" pile - these are the votes that people say are the "at-risk" voters who wished Gore were more "conservative."
So Kucinich turns out to be almost exactly where the 40/40/20 rule analysis said he'd be - gaining about 3 million (exit poll = 2.3 million), and making the battle with Bush entirely a battle for 5 million previous Gore voters (exit poll = 5.1 million).
All-in-all, this data provides an explicit proof of the conclusions from the 40/40/20 rule analysis:
1. The "progressive" bell curve is flatter and more sloped to the "left" than the DLC and the "centrist conservative" Democratic candidates want us to believe, and
2. Kucinich is still the candidate positioned best to pick up Nader's votes and therefore is the ONLY candidate who can make the fight against Bush entirely a battle for 5 million previous Gore voters - not needing ANY previous Bush voters to beat Bush decisively.
Want to win? Nominate Kucinich.
Dan Brown
Saint Paul, Minnesota
Modified. Original at:
http://imwithdennis.com/article-print-312.html