Not-So-Super Wednesday and Market Gorillas

[eridani]

Not-So-Super Wednesday and Market Gorillas
By Stephen Dinan
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Super-Tuesday did not result in a Super Wednesday for many Kucinich supporters. Personally, I had to grieve this morning, allowing the blow of 4% of the primary vote in California to hit me. For months, I have been visualizing the headline, “Kucinich Wins California” throughout the day. It felt tangible, real, and achievable. However, a 4% final tally is a long way from a win. Since I have been one of the most outspoken voices for the possibility of a win, as well as spending most of my available time galvanizing supporters, creating fundraising events, inspiring leadership, mapping strategy, and writing articles, I have a touch of wounded pride as well.

I think it’s important to acknowledge the blow and feel its repercussions while also practicing aikido with it. In aikido, instead of fighting an attack directly, the goal is to blend and redirect the attacker’s energy from a stance of acceptance. Trained martial artists bring an ease and beauty to this defenseless form of defense. At the root, the training teaches the student not to lock forces with a blow but to accept it with love, redirect, and diffuse the situation. So we’ve had a blow. How do we redirect it?

The feedback from the voting public is that we haven’t broken through from a loyal core into the mainstream. We averaged about 5% of the vote in the ten states that voted on Tuesday. We can either sigh and quit or analyze it, understand the dynamics of where we are and then design strategies to continue advancing the campaign. Advancing the campaign is unlikely at this point to result in a Kucinich nomination this year. But there are many reasons to advance his campaign nonetheless. The main reason is that Dennis is more than a candidate, as I’ve argued in previous articles; he’s an exemplar and torchbearer for an emerging culture, one with new values, priorities, and policies. To the degree that he is in the spotlight, he continues to shift the Democratic party platform in the direction of progressive change. As his base increases, his power to affect activities in Washington increases. With an increased base, we are also laying the groundwork for an eventual presidency. The Democratic Party is also well served to have Dennis rally and represent the progressive base, which is a vital key to winning against Bush. Without him in the spotlight, that base begins to feel marginalized and less represented.

So there are very good reasons to continue on. However, we need to do so with intelligence. Oddly enough, one of the best resources I have found for thinking about this is Geoffrey Moore’s work on technology adoption patterns in business (Crossing the Chasm, Inside the Tornado). We can think of Dennis as advancing a whole new technology of living on the planet, a comprehensive shift in our values and priorities. The adoption of this technology of living in the US “market” has many parallels with technology lifecycles.

Moore delineates six profiles of people: technology enthusiasts, visionaries, pragmatists, conservatives, and skeptics. In terms of actual numbers of individuals, this follows a bell curve, with more than two-thirds falling in the middle two segments of pragmatists and conservatives. Technology enthusiasts and visionaries are at the forefront of innovation, experimenting with new products, adopting products that are well-designed, interesting, or useful. They are not risk-averse.

Between them and the pragmatists lies a chasm where a high percentage of companies fail. Crossing that chasm is the key to breaking into the mainstream market since pragmatists are more risk-averse than the early adopters. They are less interested in the best technology and more interested in who is going to come out on top. They therefore look for the emergence of a gorilla that dominates the market. Once that occurs, pragmatists will rapidly buy the products of that market leader in a phase Moore calls the Tornado, a time of breakneck adoption of the new technology.

The reason pragmatists look for the emergence of a company that dominates the market is that they know that other components will start to build around that technology platform. For example, all software must be Microsoft compatible. It doesn’t matter whether Microsoft has the best software. It is the market gorilla. Investments in Microsoft-compatible software and peripherals are therefore safe. That is why pragmatists tend to move in a herd. After the pragmatists fully adopt a new technology, conservatives will follow, with the skeptics following only reluctantly.

The holy grail of marketing, then, is finding a way to cross over the chasm from the early adopter market (1-15%) where there is a great technology but slower sales, into the pragmatic market (35% or more) where there is market dominance, money, and power. Once there is enough movement across the chasm, the pragmatic market’s herd effect will quickly propel the technology into dominance. After studying hundreds of companies, Moore concludes that instead of trying to be all things to all people, the best chasm-crossing strategy is to develop a niche expertise and focus on serving the needs of that market. After dominating one market niche, others follow until the Tornado ensues and, in a swirl of intense activity, a Microsoft-like company emerges.

This gives us insight into the last seven weeks of campaigning and why Kerry is now so dominant. Many of the people who were actively involved before the primaries started were the early adopters, the passionate visionaries who believed strongly in their candidate’s superiority. The majority of voters, however, stayed in the pragmatic category, mostly the Anyone But Bush camp. They waited for someone to strongly pull away from the pack, and then they rushed to support him in the Tornado. Pragmatists aren’t interested in having the best candidate or the best platform. They are interested in power dynamics: who is dominant? Dominance then becomes self-reinforcing. As more people “adopted” Kerry, more pragmatists and eventually conservatives rushed to join. What promised to be an even race with many serious contenders rapidly evolved into a single, dominating gorilla.

So, like it or not, Kerry is now the Democratic gorilla and pragmatists will not be swayed away from him to vote for Dennis, even if they like Dennis better and even if Dennis gets MORE media exposure than Kerry now. Think of the people you know who love Macs but go with the practical PC because of the gorilla factor. Kerry is now the Microsoft-based PC. Kucinich supporters are the Macs: better product but not the dominant player. We’ve got our loyal band of visionaries and pioneers who love Dennis, but pragmatists are deaf to discussions of quality at this stage.

All of this affects our strategy for moving forward. To position Dennis for breakout into the mainstream market at some point in the future means extending our reach from the visionaries and pioneers into one constituency base that is not being adequately served by the gorilla. We need Dennis to become the main leader in one niche. As people see, respect, and value his leadership in that particular niche, Dennis gains clout for some point in the future in which the playing field has shifted, Kerry’s gorilla position is undermined, and people start looking for another potential gorilla. This might be at the end of an eight-year presidency. Or it could happen as early as this year, if something unforeseen occurs, such as scandal or a breakdown of Kerry’s campaign.

At this point, then, all we can do is establish Dennis as the leader for one market niche and wait for changing circumstances to give him an opening to step forward again as a contender for the presidency.

I maintain that the unique market position that Dennis can fill is the leader of the progressive movement, especially the Cultural Creative segment of the population that has not yet found its political power and voice. Many of these people have an ambivalent relationship to the Democratic Party as a whole since they don’t see themselves reflected in its values or policies. Some vote Democratic anyway, others rebel with third-parties, others form a block of socially liberal, fiscally conservative Republicans. And still others have stopped voting entirely.

This growing population will play an absolutely vital role in the fall election. Most of the moderate terrain in the race has been more polarized into a Bush or Anybody But Bush stance. The battle lines are drawn. However, at the other side of the Democratic Party, a lot more is in flux. Do Deaniacs abandon the party because of being ticked at the media’s treatment of their man? Does Nader gain steam? Do Kucinich supporters give up on the party? Who can get out the liberal youth vote? There is perhaps a 5-10% base of potentially disgruntled voters that can operate as a swing vote for the Democratic Party. They won’t vote for Bush but they might vote third party or stay home.

This ambivalent progressive base is key to winning the election. With Kerry’s dominance now, people will start realizing that strong progressive leadership is needed in order to solidify this base. Kerry has far too many strikes against him to be seen as a legitimate leader for this base. He’ll also be under heavy pressure to move further towards the center. Even Dean isn’t seen as credible by many progressive and/or Cultural Creative leaders. Dennis, however, is perfect, even respected by Nader. If he can establish his leadership in this segment in a way that advances its values in a substantive way while also harnessing it for the race against Bush, he becomes a valued leader.

That will position Dennis as a natural candidate for president at whatever point in the future that Kerry loses his gorilla position. In the mean time, Dennis can do a LOT of good for the progressive cause and for the party as a whole. He becomes a hero, which increases popularity and name recognition and positions him well for the future.

The tricky part of this is striking a balance between Dennis seeming ONLY like a niche leader versus strong enough to lead the entire Democratic base. In his home district, for example, he wins with 75% of the vote, proving that he can appeal to a wide swath of Democrats and Republicans. He has crossed the chasm locally into the mainstream and is benefiting from the same mass psychology affects that Kerry is now enjoying. However, at this point, Dennis has lost the competition for the pragmatic vote on a national level, which means that he needs to focus on a niche to extend his constituency base for the next stage without undermining his capacity to be a candidate that appeals across the spectrum, as he does in his congressional district.

The race to rebuild the Democratic Party and take the White House from Bush is really just beginning. Dennis Kucinich will be a key leader in that process and the support of Kucinich supporters everywhere is vital. So let us continue to build, with a goal, of course, of one day seeing our man in the White House.

[foo_bar]

1. 800 lb guerrilla

Moore delineates six profiles of people: technology enthusiasts, visionaries, pragmatists, conservatives, and skeptics.

I must be a skeptic, because I counted five.

Think of the people you know who love Macs but go with the practical PC because of the gorilla factor. Kerry is now the Microsoft-based PC. Kucinich supporters are the Macs: better product but not the dominant player.

I always considered Dean the Macintosh candidate; he and his campaign claim everyone stole their ideas, but their ideas were just a retooling of the Xerox PARC (Bartlett for America?). That and the whole form-over-function appeal of the bondi blue Dean placards and the idea of smashing Big Brother with a hammer via alternative branding. Not to mention a cultish attachment to the package and presentation over the actual delivery.

I think Kucinich is the FreeBSD candidate: the platform-independent ideas trump any particular messenger, don't require bags of money to keep afloat, and ultimately contribute to a pool of knowledge that isn't afraid to share with others.

Nice essay btw.

[eridani]

2. I like the FreeBDS candidate thing

I'll forward it to the author.