This is STILL a THREE-man race

[genius]

Kerry is still a long way from winning the magic number of delegates required to win the nomination. There is a strong anti-Kerry factor among the voters. As soon as one candidate drops out, another candidate picks up those anti-Kerry votes in the next set of races. Now the only two places for those primary voters to go is to Dennis or Al. My guess is they'll go to Dennis. We may still have a brokered convention.

Why are these voters not jumping in to support Kerry? If they support Kerry, they will give up their voice at the convention. Those who want a say are looking to Dennia and Al.

[Dookus]

1. LOL

thanks for the laugh.

[ShaneGR]

33. Prediction

Kerry picks up 80% of the vote in all of the remaining states. By my calculations he might even have 2000 by next Tuesday.

[GreenArrow]

35. Kerry and Edwards got over 75 percent of the vote between

them in last Tuesday's primaries. Now that Edwards is "out" no doubt many his supporters will add to Kerry's totals. Eighty percent is a real possibility.

[Kanary]

52. You're getting sleepy... you're getting very sleepy...

[Mick Knox]

2. Har!

Thats a good one.

[Desertrose]

3. I agree genius...

everyone seems to be in a big hurray...and as usual DK is never mentioned....but he is still out there campaigning below the radar.....and thank heavens the progressive voice has not been silenced.

Seems to me those who are not ready to jump on the Kerry parade still have options within the Dem party....


Peace
DR

[Dookus]

5. It is mathematically impossible

for DK to secure enough delegates for the nomination.

Not that it ever WAS possible for him to do so. But now no amount of wishful thinking can even make it APPEAR possible.

[foo_bar]

14. well not mathematically impossible

Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Clark, and Sharpton could all perish from a virulent strain of mad cow disease. That's still pretty long odds but slightly shy of zero.

[JohnKleeb]

6. Well as someone who has the deepest support and respect for DK and Kerry

I urge Kucinich people to continue to support him. Just try to get behind the nominee, however until the Boston convention or until someone clinches the delegate total I urge people to continue to support their candiate of choice. Its a shame hes like invisible to the media. I'll be honest with you DR, it will be hard for him to come back on Kerry but does that mean he should give up and not share his wonderful message of what America should be, I think not.
I am a supporter of Kerry and Kucinich and I also urge Sharpton to fight on.

[JI7]

9. agree

there is nothing wrong with what kucinich is doing. and most of his attacks is against bush so it should help the party. it certainly doesn't hurt kerry since kucinich said he will end up supporting whoever wins the democraitc nomination. so let him go out and campaign and meet with people and give his message. he did place a good second in hawaii and if he could do that in a few other places it will help in getting some attention.

[JohnKleeb]

10. thanks

Ive seen it from both views. I support both dually, it may suprise some people, and I admit, I have never really explained. He is also promoting ideas which should be our platform. He has endured and yes some many say its out of his stubborness but he has endured longer than the supposely more electable ones like Edwards, Clark, Dean, Gephardt, if he had got a chance early on, some media attention, and a little bit of luck, he would be in a strong position. I hope a Kerry adminstration considers him for a job.

[Ediacara]

4. Kerry peaked too soon

Ya... that's the ticket genius...

[Doomsayer13]

7. um

For DK to win, he wouldn't just need to win all the remaining states, he'd need to with them with over 80% of the vote. That's simply impossible.

[Dookus]

8. even worse than that

he'd need to win with over 100%

[DannyRed]

11. Which is no reason to be rude

or insulting or dismissive.

I think voting for Kucinich, or Dean is actually very important at this stage in the game, because the more delegates they get, the louder their voice at the convention and the more say they get when it comes to planks, party positions, and negotiations.

Stop being a boor.

[JohnKleeb]

12. exactly

let the people vote. Let him reach out and let people hear his ideas which truly are what should be the dem platform. I am in complete agreement with you Danny. I hope we can have some of his platform in our party platform, his platform truly is terrific. There is no reason to be rude, he should stay in until he feels he wants to withdraw.

[Dookus]

13. What's boorish

about pointing out a mathematical fact?

I don't think DK will win ANY more delegates. He'll have to work his magic with the 18 he's got.

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dookus]

17. Thanks for the advice, Dannyred

I'll give it all the attention it deserves.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dookus]

18. aww

say it ain't so poppabear36 - an anonymous stranger on the internet doesn't like me.

I'll try to cope.

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dookus]

22. I'm trying really hard to care...

but it's just not happening.

[Lexingtonian]

19. three men, yes; a race, no.

Rub-a-dub-dub, three men in a tub. But I'd estimate 3,000 of the delegates at the Convention will be tallying for Kerry, maybe a thousand will initially represent other candidates.

I'm a bit worried about Kucinich's well-being; he seemed to rush off in all sorts of directions at that last 'debate'. Sharpton kept his feet on the ground and was fairly gracious if nothing else.

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[MercutioATC]

25. No, it's not. It's over when Kerry mathematically eliminates his opponents

He hasn't done that, yet.

Yes, I have little doubt that he will, but he hasn't as of yet.

[aldian159]

23. Wake up and smell the damn coffee

here you go, in caps, just for you:
IT'S OVER, KERRY WON.

DK polled third in his own district, the same district he won with 85% in 2002.

DK needs to worry about winning re-election for OH-10 instead of smoking this pipe dream that is the presidential race.

[genius]

30. I guess math isn't your strong suit. Kerry doesn't have the delegates

As for Dennis, he pulled second in Hawaii and first in Maui. He beat out Edwards in Washington and Maine. Everyone said Dean had the nomination locked up and we needed to forget about Kerry in January. It's amazing how things change after people think someone has the nomination sewn up.

[Dookus]

32. Math is YOUR strong suit?

Kucinich CANNOT secure the nomination, even if he wins EVERY delegate still remaining.

He won Maui. Can you tell us how many votes that took? I'll save you some time. The answer is 384. That's how many votes it takes to "win" Maui.

[genius]

43. If Kerry doesn't get the nomination before the convention, then the

delegates get to re-think. Even Kerry's become uncommitted after the first vote and on the second vote, it's up for grabs. With Nader in the race and Kerry falling under attack by then, the convention could decide to go with someone who will get Nader to quit the race.

[matcom]

24. Funniest. GD 2004. Post. Ever.

and maybe the most pathetic :eyes:

[revcarol]

26. I expected better from you.

Oh, well. Gonna keep on keeping on.

The people who support the candidate for the people just will NOT quit.Like it or lump it, the Democratic Party will HEAR from us, regarding jobs and social justice, and being a force for justice in the world, not an imperialistic power!!

[Freddie Stubbs]

40. The voters have heard Kucinich's and Sharpton's messages

And they have largely rejected that message.

[matcom]

49. Dont

i don't venture into this cesspool often but occasionally, i have to view the train-wreck - the naivete

[Desertrose]

62. I don't expect a whole lot better from those who have *butt* emoticons

in their posts...sorry...but I can't take anyone too seriously with little wiggling and walking butts....can you??

call me crazy but I don't think it adds a lot of credibility to 'em.

:giggle:
DR

[Dookus]

63. it's "credibility"

and I think using someone's humorous sigline as an argument against their position is rather weak. In fact, it's worse than rather weak. It's a total concession that you can't address the argument at all.

[OKNancy]

27. Bush doesn't have all the delegates he needs yet

Bush has 699 and needs 1215, but no one is saying he won't be the nominee. Sometimes things are self-evident.

[MuseRider]

28. I agree with you genius

however at this point I would no longer call it a race. We are evidently a smaller group than I originally thought. At this point, while I will never concede, I am willing to take this as the beginning that it now seems to be. DK has always said that we asked him to run and he would do his best to win it but it was important to get the message out, win or not. He is showing us that he is not willing to give in or give up. How else will he have this kind of chance to get out to people all over the country? He must continue. I see this as courage, not stupidity like some would have us think. This is an enormous country and progressive change is almost always slow as hard as that is to realize. I am very disappointed but also heartened by his stubborn refusal to give up. As long as he is out there taking all the steps for this change we will be there behind him. Here is to hope, not fear :toast:

[MessiahRp]

29. Yeah sure...

This is like racing a stock car against two high school track sprinters. Sorry but there's no chance for the other two and they should talk to Kerry, get a speaking plank at the Convention and get out before they look worse to the voters who are already 100% for the man that will without a doubt be our nominee against Bush.

Let's face it even though they were still in the race 90% of voters never saw them as such when Edwards was still in. At this point it's a lock that nobody considers them viable choices.

Get out now, concentrate on helping Kerry and work on securing a speaking plank at the DNC Convention. That should be enough.

Rp

[oasis]

31. Yes Virginia, there is an "anti" clause.

:evilgrin:

[GreenArrow]

34. if you can't beat 'em, join 'em

but realistically, there is no way either DK or Al is going to win. Honestly, when Dean dropped, his voters could have gone to DK. When Clark dropped his voters could have gone to DK. I specify these two candidates because of their vaunted grassroots support, their populist campaign rhetoric, their percieved anti-war/anti-establishment focus.

Instead, supporters of these two candidates largely opted to throw their votes to Kerry or Edwards, the two unashamedly status quo candidates still running (though some did hold true and vote for their candidates who were still on the ballots.) DK's vote totals remain about the same as when Clark and Dean were in the race. What indication is there that Edwards' supporters will now vote for DK? There is none, and they won't; they'll vote for Edwards if he's on the ballot, or they'll switch over to John Kerry.

The writing is on the wall; grassroots support and populist rhetoric is great in theory, beating Bush is the only thing that matters. That being said, DK and Al Sharpton should stay in as long as they want.

[info being]

36. As a DK supporter, I disagree

I support the fact that he's staying in.

He's my President no matter who wins.

But the decision has been made. Especially for those of us in the states that have already voted...its time to move on.

[diamondsoul]

37. Move on?

Why? Even accepting Kerry will be the nominee there's still a place for Kucinich at the Convention.

I seriously do NOT get this stuff that people who support Kucinich should just shut up and go back to being the invisible apathetic non-voters we've been for years! I'm not kidding, some of the Kerry people here are going to drive people right back to doing what I did until 2000!

Do you know what made me get up and vote in 2000? Fear of Bush. Well gee, here we go again, I'll be voting in November out of fear of Bush. Tell me where did that get me last time? Why bother? The fix is completely in this time around and Kerry supporters and now even YOU are telling me I don't need to bother voting when my PRIMARY rolls around!

Screw it. I'm convinced, my vote doesn't count so I guess I don't need to vote in November either.:puke: :eyes: FEH!!!

[info being]

46. Sorry, bad choice of words and I didn't realize...

you didn't have your Primary yet. Yes, if I still had a primary of course I'd vote for DK.

"Move On" was a terrible way to put it. But there's a fine line between staying true to your beliefs and being in complete denial. If I walk around telling everyone that I believe Kucinich will be elected President this year, I lose a lot of credibility. You have to appear grounded in reality to be taken seriously.

[Freddie Stubbs]

58. Does that mean the Kucinich is losing credability?

Since he is telling people that the is going to be elected President? Is he grounded in reality? Will this make people take him less seriously?

[BruinAlum]

38. Get serious will you??

This is STILL a THREE-man race

WRONG!

Kerry is still a long way from winning the magic number of delegates required to win the nomination.

WRONG!

There is a strong anti-Kerry factor among the voters.

WRONG! There is a STRONGER PRO-KERRY FACTOR AMONG THE VOTERS!

We may still have a brokered convention.

WRONG! Not a chance!

Give me a break!

But thanks for the laugh!

Look, you can heal on your own time, but stop making these foolish predictions, kay?

Shhhhheeeesh!

[Name removed]

39. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[youngred]

45. way to build party unity

You help Bush by being so exclusive...and Frankly if you're a True American I don't want to be

[TrueAmerican]

50. Get with the program

Please stop harrassing me.

[Stuckinthebush]

41. I'm a betting man...

How about this...

I'll give you Kucinich and Sharpton. I'll take Kerry. If one of your two wins the nomination, then I'll pay you $1,000,000 - If Kerry wins, you pony up the mil to me.

Come on...you get two I get one.

:D

[Freddie Stubbs]

42. You are making a BIG assumption

You are assuming that the people who voted for Edwards, Dean, Clark, and the others who have dropped out did so because they were 'anti-Kerry.' They may have voted for those people just bacause they liked them better than Kerry. What makes you think that these people will gravitate to Kucinich or Sharpton?

[GreenArrow]

53. they haven't gravitated yet

I see no reason to assume that Edwards voters will gravitate anywhere except to Kerry, for the most part. I don't like it, but with each dropped candidate, the votes for that candidate go down and Al's and DK's stay at the same levels. The left, what remains of it in this country, is screwing itself.

[northzax]

44. al sharpton?

the guy who got less thanb 3 percent of the vote in New york? his homw state? ok, then. guess there aren't a lot of dissafected anti-kerry folks.

[GreenArrow]

54. actually, Sharpton got eight percent in New York

and picked up eight delegates.

[Freddie Stubbs]

56. Sharpton fell far below Jesse Jackson's 25% of the in vote in NY in 1984

Even African-Americans aren't taking this guy seriously.

[GreenArrow]

57. not the point. This year, in this race

Sharpton got 8 percent of the vote in New York, not less than 3 percent as the previous poster suggested.

But I'd agree with you that Al Sharpton is no Jesse Jackson. Of course if JJ ran today, I think he'd do worse than Al is.

[arewethereyet]

47. no it isn't

Kerry could go to Aruba for the next 5 months and still win the nomination.

Your guy lost, my guy lost, Kerry won.

Its all over and there will be no shouting.

[sangh0]

48. And the US is still a democracy

.

[MurikanDemocrat]

51. Why would you post something so silly?

Seriously??

:shrug:

[DoveTurnedHawk]

55. Is This a Joke? (eom)

DTH

[JohnLocke]

59. Hardy-har-har.

Good one, mate.

[ChiefJoseph]

60. Bush's long lost Medal of Honor for heroism in Vietnam will be found...

...before Kucinich wins the nomination. I doubt he'll even be given an opportunity to speak at the convention.

[fujiyama]

61. Kerry IS the nominee...

Get over it.

If you want to vote for Kucinich, Dean, Clark, or Edwards in a primary that hasn't come up yet, feel free. It most likely won't make a difference, but votes for candidate could be useful in leveraging some say at the convention.

But that doesn't mean there is a chance of someone else getting the nomination.