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Edited on Thu Dec-18-03 11:59 PM by Tom Rinaldo
And I do see a clear, if not easy, path to a Clark nomination. Here it is:
There are absolutely no expectations for Clark to do anything in Iowa at this point. Since that is known by all going into it, Clark can't "lose" any more now from the results there than he already did by skipping Iowa in the first place. There was a real political cost in that for Clark, but he has already paid it. Clark can only win or lose there indirectly, as other candidates fortunes rise and fall. Most candidates will be further hurt by Iowa at this point. All of those who chose to compete there now need a respectable showing in Iowa to not project weakness.
If Dean wins Iowa, he of course cements his front runner status, but since the public already believes Dean is the overwhelming favorite, his upside there is limited unless he absolutely blows out the rest of the field. Oddly enough if that were to happen it might even help Clark, since it would severely damage all of his opponents other than Dean, and Lieberman, who is also skipping Iowa. Gephardt has to win, and even then it would only keep him somewhat in the race. Gephardt won in Iowa last time he ran for President, and went nowhere after it. Gephardt has little money left, and precious little support in most of the states coming up shortly after Iowa. Dean though would be seriously hurt if Gep beat him there, since he would no longer seem so invincible. It would open up the race more, which is certainly to Clark's advantage, since both Dean AND Kerry would be hurt (assuming Kerry camne in third).
Kerry is the only other guy with any outside chance to win in Iowa. A win there for Kerry would be huge but also extremely unlikely. Kerry is hoping to somehow come in second, which would pump a little life back into his campaign. But unless it is a close second, the big story will still be Dean winning big, and Gephardt getting knocked out of the race. If Kerry doesn't pull off any upside surprise it will hurt him, since the cat is out of the bag now and expectations for Kerry have been elevated. Edwards has to hope he can somehow come in third in Iowa, which is becoming ever more unlikely with Dean Gephardt and Kerry all scoring higher than him. Edwards coming in 4th in Iowa weakens him heading into NH.
Therefor the only scenario I see happening in Iowa that can hurt Clark in any way is a very strong second place finish there by Kerry. If Kerry finishs a not close second it's a draw for both of them, and Edwards and Gephardt will be hurt. I think that will cause some Edwards voters to move to Clark in NH. Gephards support in NH, small already, would likely splinter (assuming he loses in Iowa), with little going to Dean. That helps everyone but Dean in NH.
OK on to New Hampshire. Again Dean is now the strong frontrunner and most assume he will win NH handily, so here too his upside is limited. Pretty much all NH will do is terminally weaken some of Deans opponents, and potentially elevate one or two others as serious alternatives to Dean. It is actually to the advantage of those of Dean's opponents who do have the money needed to be mounting TV ad campaigns in the Feb. 3rd battle states now, that those contests will follow only one week after NH. That will force the media to quickly shift attention off of the afterglow of Dean's expected victory in NH onto the new horse races underway in those other States, which likely will remain competitve. Here Clark has a big advantage over most if not all of the other Dean alternatives. Clark has ample money to fuel his campaign for the moment. Kerry is already mortgaging his house to raise money.
So back to NH. The contest there is for spots two, there, and to a lesser extent, four. So right away we can assume that at least three of the upper tier contenders will get mortally wounded. Let's assume Dean wins and Kerry gets one of the runner up spots. That leaves Clark, Gephardt, Edwards, and Lieberman competing for the other seats left at the table. Coming in 5th in NH is simply not a viable option. Anything short of a very close 4th in NH is not an option in fact. I see Edwards having at best a shot at finishing fourth, but a long shot. He would have to beat out Clark Kerry or Lieberman to grab number four, not to mention Gephardt if somehow he wins Iowa. Remember I expect Edwards to come out of Iowa weakened. So I see Clark picking up some of Edwards votes in NH because his supporters will see the handwriting on the wall. Clark is the only other guy running with Southern appeal, and that has been an Edwards selling point.
Clark would get a huge boost out of NH if he came in second there of course, but I don't expect him to do that, and I don't believe he at all needs to do that. Getting beaten by Kerry in NH is nothing that Clark would have to explain away to anyone. Kerry has spent much of a year stomping through New Hampshire and millions of dollars there as well. Kerry was once expected to WIN New Hampshire easily, he comes from right across the border and NH gets much of its media programming from Boston. People know Kerry well in NH. Anything other than a really strong second finish in NH now will discredit Kerry, assuming as I do that he will also have lost in Iowa. Kerry does not have significant strength in most of the Feb. 3rd contests to regroup there. He needs momentuum coming out of NH to be competitive on Feb. 3rd. Kerry runs a very real risk that NH will be his high water mark, and it will be far from high enough.
More important for Clark will be the distance between the 3rd and 4th place finishers, than any of the other gaps in the spread for the top finsihers. If Clark comes in third, and has breathing room over the 4th place finisher, Clark emerges from NH in at least relatively good shape. Third place means Clark beats both Lieberman and Edwards, and Lieberman and Edwards are the only other Democrats who are polling well in the Feb. 3rd battlefield States besides Dean. Since Clark already is highly competitve with both those gentlemen in those states, if not outright beating them already, coming out ahead of them in NH the week before would give Clarka a very strong leg up on both of them heading into those contests.
Under that scenario every candidate other than Clark and Dean will come out of NH weakened, most mortally. Again, Kerry is not doing well currently in those states. The media, the pundits, activists, and the public will quickly size up the race as coming down to Dean and Clark at that point. This in turn will increase pressure on the backers of other candidates to pick another horse. Dean consistently draws the support of less than a third of Democrats polled. Most Democrats have not embraced Dean yet, no matter what Gore or the papers say. There will be a natural tendency for those who have resisted Dean to date to look at, and for, a Democrat who can continue to resist Dean, and that will be Clark, and most likely only Clark. Between now and Feb. 3rd, Clark can afford to allocate the resources he needs to stay competitive in those states, where the terraine is intrinsically less receptive for Dean than in Iowa and NH, where Dean virtually camped out with his army for a year.
Clark will receive a huge boost from the next "primary" held, which will be the annoucemnents of funds raised by candidates in the 4th quarter. Clark may or may not actually beat out Dean there, but he will clearly seperate himself from all of the other contenders by that critical measure. That will give Clark added momentum heading into NH. Under the above scenario the real battle won't begin untill Feb. 3rd, after the field begins to narrow, and the field will narrow again immediately after Feb. 3rd, if not literally with formal withdrawals, then for all practical purposes in terms of remaining voter support for the weaker candidates. Clark should make both of those cuts, gaining strength and building excitement in the process. The fact that Dean will not have been able to put away the nomination with a quick knock out will by then begin to work against him, since all those repeatedly hyped expectations of the inevitable Dean victory will start to lose their bouyancy.
Remember, very very few delegates are actually won during the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. The actual race to win the nomination can shift quite dramatically depending on what happens in the larger states later. Perception and momentum will play a critical role in this nominating process. Clark's movement is growing, and is poised to continue growing. The shift that has occurred here at DU from when Clark was an exotic off brand candidate to now where he consistently draws strong support on DU forums is just now playing out with a broader circle of Democrats who now starting to tune in closer to the election. What Dean once was to Kerry, as the underestimated underdog with support growing below the radar, Clark can now be to Dean. This can still get very interesting.
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