Is a draft really likely under Kerry or Bush in 2005?

[ringmastery]

I find it unlikely on numerous levels. First of all, all the top military officials don't want one. They don't want their highly skilled army of volunteers dumbed down with unskilled people who don't want to be there.

Secondly, Congress would have to authorize a draft. Bush or Kerry can't just "do it" and it's wildly unpopular in congress because senators and reps know if they vote for it the voters will remember and vote their ass out.

Sending "other" famailies sons and daughters to die in war is fine to most americans, but when it's your son or daughter, everything changes.

There would be countless protests the likes we haven't seen since the 60's. I'm betting a lot of civil unrest and riots on college campuses nationwide. I doubt congress would want a repeat of the 60's.

[DuctapeFatwa]

1. I think you can take it to the bank. Kerry will put it in nicer words

But the reality will still be the same for the ones drafted. The sons of the affluent will be able to get out of it, and voters are generally the top 25% income tier, so you are right that few object to sending someone else's son off to die.

The Pentagon is already admitting it is stretched, and there is no way to occupy the countries already occupied with current resources, and the Liberation of Iran will require more than are currently deployed in Afghanistan and Iran together, twice that.

Even if they use commercials for the whole Carribean, and even if Kerry wins and successfully parlays a slice of America's Iraq oil for some expendables from Old Europe & co, America's "allies" simply do not have the numbers needed to maintain long-term Gaza style occupations of half the world.

[sadiesworld]

4. Your cynicism is understandable if you truly believe...

that Kerry will invade Iran.

[DuctapeFatwa]

7. Don't think of it as an invasion. "Progressive intervention"

is the preferred term.

[kalian]

10. You can bet on it that Kerry will continue this "perpetual war"....

...all cynicism aside...

[democratreformed]

8. Also, the National Guards of several states are barely left with enough

manpower to handle the states' emergencies. Some have only half of their forces left.

[xray s]

2. I think it is very likely

Putting so much of the burden on the Reserves and National Guard can't continue. It would be one thing if we were in a war with defined objectives and foreseeable end, but Bush has put us into a quagmire.

We have built up an incredibly large military empire around the world. Estimates of nearly one thousand bases in over one hundred countries.

Something has to give.

[molly]

3. I think they will hope for people to sign-up first

I know the PHS is looking for approx 400 new docs. They are afraid of being short if there is a national crisis. They give all kinds of incentives - like paying for med school, etc.

[robertpaulsen]

5. If there's a civil war in Iraq or Pakistan, we may have no choice.

Dubya has stirred up so much shit that even if he is kicked out this November, we may be dealing with the repurcussions of all the stupid decisions he has made in the last four years well into the next decade. The military is already stretched to the breaking point with our commitments to Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. ad nauseum. If civil war broke out in Iraq, I think Kerry would have his hands tied and be forced to increase our level of troops there. If Musharraf (God forbid) were assassinated and Al Qaeda sympathizers gained control of Pakistan, then Kerry might be forced to enact the draft.

Of course, we could just vote for Bush and watch him enact the draft just to have the human force to go after Iran and Syria in 2005.

[FloridaPat]

6. Definately under Bush. He has several more countries he

wants to invade. Total of 60 all together. As of January, there were 10,000 soldiers who were up for retirement or getting out and their exit was put on hold until further notice. You can bet the reservce people will be exiting in droves as soon as they can and you can bet no one will be joining the reserves any time soon.

Kerry will probably have to start up the draft or get the troops out of Iraq, especially since we illegally invaded that country and our leaders should be put on trial for war crimes.

It comes down to - how important is that oil and all the rest in the Middle East? $200 billion would go a long way for alternative energy research. We are stuck there for decades. I think we should have a draft of only republicans and I think the republican party should be paying the bill for this.

[atreides1]

9. Puppets Don't Make Decisions!!!!!

"First of all, all the top military officials don't one"

Well, seeing as how all of those officials were recently appointed to their positions within the military, after the "forced" retirement
of at least a dozen General officers, do you really think that they
actually make statements without a script.

A good portion of the current generals are Bush/Rumsfeld appointees, perhaps you can tell me which of the Generals in charge in Iraq has complained about the lack of body armor for his troops, or why armored HUMVEES are in Bosnia and not in Iraq where they would be best utilized. Why is it that some of the mess halls can't pass a basic health inspection in Iraq, but you don't hear anyone from the Pentagon making any waves about it.

The current group of generals are loyal to a man and have forgotten their oath to defend the Constitution. Most of them are padding their resumes so they can get those neat consulting jobs with defense contractors. As a former soldier, all I see are a group of
potential traitors. Traitors to this country and to the Constitution.

Just the humble opinion of a former soldier.