I think Kerry may not be the nominee afterall

[Vas Liz]

Let's say we have a brokered convention.

Kerry will obviously need support from someone else. He's already assumed victory which may be a mistake on his part. There are a lot of possible outcomes in such a situation.

Edwards has the most chance, after Kerry, to secure the nomination as far as delegates go. Knowing this would Edwards give his support to Kerry?

Kerry has been a jerk to DK, and I would imagine DK would rather give his support to someone else. (Isn't he friends with Edwards?) Same for Al. These are the only "lesser" candidates that got any delegates.

What would Dean do? Not sure.

Clark apparently is on the Kerry boat now. Though sometimes loyalty changes... Still, Clark only has 57.

It would seem to me that Edwards alone (or a combination of the other candidates) may need to give Kerry support depending on how things go in the south on tuesday.

So the question is - would Kerry, in such a situation, fight for that support? Or would he conceed his support to Edwards (or someone else) if it was apparent none of the other candidates would give him the support needed?

[kainah]

1. "let's say we have a brokered convention"??????

That's an enormous leap right there. Unless and until you can provide some realistic scenario under which there would be a brokered convention -- and remember how long it has been since that happened and how many rules have changed in the interim -- the rest of your speculation is pretty meaningless.

[sallyseven]

2. He will have the delegates

There will not be a brokerd convention for president. If they fon't give him the support then I would favor them be devered from the Democratic Party. Only repuks would do such a thing.

[Vas Liz]

16. ?

So you think other candidates not immediatly giving support to Kerry is something only repubs would do? And they should be ejected from the party?

Hm... I thought the lockstep/purge party was the repub party. I must have gotten them mixed up.

[patricia92243]

3. What is the breakdown on delegates for all candidate -even inactive ones-

[Freddie Stubbs]

23. Kerry 1557, Edwards 513, Dean 182, Clark 57, Sharpton 24, Kucinich 18

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/index.html

[Nicholas_J]

31. Today alone

Kerry picked up another 69 superdelegates bringing his total to 1626.

There are still 1901 delegates remaining, with around 520 superdelegates making up part of that leaving 1381 delegates to be won in primaries adn caucuses in the reamining states. All Kerry needs is 536 of those delegates. Edwards is out, so he is not running for those delegates. Kerry needs to win the reamining 20 states by less that 40 percent (40 percent would given him 552 additional delegates, putting him over the top for the nomination by beeating the remaining candidates with roughly 38 percent of the votes in the next 20 states. It appears that he will likely do better than that, and next tuesdays results in Florida and Texas will show exactly how well Kerry will do in the remaining states. There is no way that even in a brokered convention that the party leadership is going to suggest that the party decide that iis going to tell the electorate that they are not supporting the candidate who has so far received over half the support of voters in order nominate a candidate who has been able to garner the support of a total of about 17 percent of the support of the electorate, which is what an attempt to nominate Edwards woud be attempting to do. No matter what the situation at the convention, the party is still beholden to try to nominate the candidate who has the braodest support from the voters. This is how JFK won in 1960, Johnson was not even as far behind as Edwards, but he had no choice but to negociate a position for himself in the next democratic administration, or lose the party's support entirely.

[blm]

4. You're wrong. Kerry and Kucinich get along just fine.

They don't take the debates as personally as many here think. And Dennis has become close with Teresa and I believe, Chris, as well.

[JohnKleeb]

34. Chris I know for a personal fact likes and respects DK

Honestly, I never have seen much friction between John and Dennis. If Dennis dropped out with Edwards and Kerry both in the race, he wuold throw it to Edwards because Edwards is a pal. He respects Kerry too I know.

[kurtyboy]

35. I was walking out of an event with Vanessa Kerry

And there were a few Kucinich folks at the door advertising a speech he was going to deliver a few days hence. Vanessa stopped and said to them, "Kucinich is a really fine person. I appreciate his positions." and walked on.

The Kucinich guys looked at each other kinda funny---We moved to the next Q&A.

[JohnKleeb]

36. I always liked Kerry when I was fully for DK

Good for Vanessa. The Kerry kids are great campaigners. Chris actually emailed me. Kerry himself to my knowledge hasnt been at conflict with DK, and DK has no problems with Kerry, I am sure some of the votes Kerry made disappoint DK, but they are sponsoring a bill together. I tell you, we need Vanessa, Chris, and the other Kerry kids for the GE, they really are great, Teresa is a hell of a woman too.

[BootinUp]

5. The only candidate

spending serious money against Kerry now is Bush. Kerry is essentially uncontested. And I don't see any signs that Sharpton or Kucinich are going to start hauling in serious money.

[MidwestTransplant]

12. They could buy a printing press

[marialicht]

29. How about this? Kucinich contributions soar

Kucinich contributions soar after Edwards drops from race

For Immediate Release: March 3, 2004
Contact: Matt Harris: (o) 216.889.2004, (c) 216.403.3980,
[e-mail]

The withdrawal of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards from the Democratic
Presidential race on Wednesday sparked a record-breaking influx of
support and financial contributions to the campaign of one of the
Party's three remaining candidates.

No, not Sen. John Kerry, whose election results on Super Tuesday
persuaded Edwards to withdraw. Rather, the calls and the contributions
went to Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.

In the first 36 hours following the Edwards announcement, the Kucinich
campaign was swamped with calls and emails of support -- and nearly
$160,000 in campaign contributions, most over the Internet. Finance
officers in the Kucinich campaign put out a call to campaign staff to
help handle the load.

"It’s clear that people want the public debate to continue," said
Kucinich while making campaign stops in Texas. "They know that I'm
committed to taking our issues and our efforts all the way to the
Democratic convention in July, and they know that costs money.

"Their generosity is more than gratifying," Kucinich added. "It's a
testament to their support for universal health care for all Americans,
jobs and a full employment economy, an end to trade policies that allow
U.S. corporations to outsource jobs to foreign countries and force our
own citizens into unemployment lines, a speedy end to our occupation of
Iraq and the safe return of our men and women in uniform."

Kucinich said the outpouring of support is a reflection of people's
desire to hear what he has to say. "The ongoing debate among different
ideas, policies, and plans can only strengthen our Party," Kucinich
said. "More and more, people are recognizing that fact and supporting
our efforts to keep that debate alive and lively. I thank them for
their support and their belief that our Progressive voice should
continue to be heard because the future of our country -- and the world
-- is at stake."

For information about the National campaign: http://www.kucinich.us For
Congressman Kucinich's Schedule: http://www.kucinich.us/schedule.htm
To schedule interview with Kucinich or spokesperson:
[e-mail]

[BootinUp]

33. Thats good!

I never advocated Kucinich dropping out, I would like to see him campaign till the convention. However, that is nowhere near enough money to take on Kerry.

[MurikanDemocrat]

6. I think you have nothing but wishful dreaming to stand on

Kerry needs approx 600 more delegates, and there's no reason to beleive he's not going to get them. Time for you to get used to the idea.


The DNC is already fund raising for Kerry. Bush is already campaigning against him. We already know Kerry is the nominee. There is not going to be a brokered convention.

[saltpoint]

7. Let's say Franklin Pierce rose from the dead --

-- and claimed the nomination in Boston this summer.

I'm sorry, Vaz Liz, but a brokered convention is a statistical possibility but logistically unlikely. Don't bet any money on it.

If there is no financial scandal and his health stays strong, John Kerry is likely our nominee.

It's not official, true. But the train is pulling away from the station.

[NNN0LHI]

8. Yes, Virginia. There Is No Santa Claus n/t

[molly]

9. Do all of the above posts answer your question?

[Leilani]

10. HUH?

Maybe there will be a brokered convention on another planet, after Bush's new space program goes into effect?

[Indiana Democrat]

11. Heeeeeellooooooo........

Senator John F. Kerry is our condidate for the Presidency of the United States of America.


Now...What part of that statement is not clear?

[OhioStateProgressive]

14. He's our condiment for the Presidency?

Oh. Condidate.

I see now.

[Doomsayer13]

13. um, there will be no brokered convention

It is nearly statistically impossible for Al Sharpton or Dennis Kucinich to garner enough of the vote in the rest of the primary to prevent Kerry from attaining a majority of delegats. Not only would they need to win the rest of the primary states, they'd need to win with over 80% of the vote. Impossible, or very close to it.

[Dookus]

26. Not quite correct

it IS impossible for either of them to gain the nomination. There are 1971 delegates so far unaccounted for. Even if DK or AS won EVERY SINGLE REMAINING DELEGATE, they would not have enough to secure the nomination.

DK needs 108% of the remaining delegates - a mathematical impossibility.

[Mick Knox]

15. Kerry is a robot,

the real Kerry died in Vietnam is more possible than this.. barring some act of God or Robert Kennedy situation.

[anti-NAFTA]

17. Damn right.

Kerry will be a disaster, judging from what I've read on this board. There have been so many posts about voting for him but not donating (including my own). He's boring and nothing on the platform other than the environment is a reflection of his votes. I'm crossing my fingers for a brokered convention.

[MaineDem]

18. "...judging from what I've read on this board"

Now that could be a mistake- basing anything on what you read here.

[NNN0LHI]

27. You are not wrong.

Basing anything on what one reads on an anonymous Internet chat board is not a very smart thing to do.

Don

[Adelante]

19. Apparently you don't know Wes Clark

"Clark apparently is on the Kerry boat now. Though sometimes loyalty changes..."

If you can say something like this. Clark is with Kerry and stays with Kerry. Edwards has endorsed Kerry and I expect he will honor his commitment as well. Howard Dean, well, who the hell knows?

[jsw_81]

20. There is not going to be a brokered convention

Will you people face reality already? Barring an absolute catastrophe, Kerry will be our nominee.

[Freddie Stubbs]

21. A brokered convention can only occur if one candidate does not have

a majority of delegates. Kerry has about 75% of the delegates that he needs to get that majority. Unless Kerry dies before the convention or one of the also-rans suddenly gets a tidal wave of public support, he will be the nominee.

[zulchzulu]

22. Reality check: Kucinich is behind Sharpton

He can't deliver jacksh*t. Kucinich is a percieved flake if you look at how the electorate has voted so far.

You mention Clark having 57 delegates. Sharpton has 24. Kucinich is in LAST PLACE with 18.

The only thing Kucinich brings to the table is his liability as a weak candidate with isolationist ideas that would be disastrous in this economy.

Kerry has not "been a jerk to DK". He knows not to get aligned with Kucinich because of his proven weakness as a candidate. A photo with Kerry holding raised hands with Kucinich would be the best thing to happen to the RNC.

[Nicholas_J]

24. Kerry is so far ahead

Tha no one elses will be seleted totake his place, THey are certainly not going to lean towards Dean with his 188 delegates. Or even Edwards with his 513. Kerry will immediately receive all the remaining Superdelegates, as that is whatthey will be instructed to do by the party leadership. Non compliance in such matter results in the party leadership not supprting holdouts for anty furure political run. SO Kerry recived the remaining 555 superdelegates. From the 1557 deelgates Kerry has now, plus winning 50 percent of the pledged delegates remaining, Kerry still passes the 2162 delegates needed to win. Kerry will easuly pass the 2000 delegate mark by the time the last of the democratic primaries are through. All the polls for the future states place Kerry well above 50 percent. The latest polls of Texas:

President, TX Dem Primary
3/1/2004

Kerry
55%

Edwards
24%

Other/Undecided
21%

Data Collected
2/27/04 - 2/29/04

Geography
State of Texas

Sample Population
442 Certain Voters

Margin of Error
4.7%

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Give Kerry more than Half of Texas's delegates,
Florida, polls show Kerry winninb by a greater precentage than Texas.

Giving Kerry another 190 delegates at the very minimum from both Texas and Florida in a few days, probably more with Edwards dropping out.

So this brings Kerry up to at least 1750 dleegates by nexy tuesday, from Florida and Texas's Primaries alone. PLacing Kerry within 400 delegates of the nomination. Easily wom by combination of suprtdelegates who will inevitably cast for Kerry in the next few months, and the delegates Kerry wins in the remaining primaries and caucuses. The odds that we will end up with a brokered convention are slim, and even with a brokered convention, both Clark and Edwards have an enormous say in what happens to the delegates that they have won. They are in fact the major factor in deciding who their delegates are awarded to.

But the mathematics make it obvious that a brokered convention is the slimmmest of likelihoods, as Kerry's massive lead now wil translatte into evn more momentum for the twenty primaries and caucuses left. If Kerry simply wins the remining states by the polling leads he had in those statees prior to suprt tursday, he wins enough delegates to put him over the top. My bet is that Kerry wil have enough delegates ti win the nomination by May 19th

Also, the fact is that the party always ends up demanding that all of te other candidates support the candidate who has been selected by voters in primaries and caucuses. They simply require it of the superdelegates, who lose party backing ofr their next attempt to run if they go against the obvious wll of the voters. Always happens, Edwards, who is out of occice come November, must do what the party wants if he ever hopes to run for office again. THey cna withold support and recommend another candidate to run and not back Edwards in anny future attempt to run for any office anywhere in the United States. The party must approve the candidate, and the candidate must always fall in line to get that support.

[Debi]

25. I think reality is biting at our heels

I've been shouting 'brokered convention' from the rooftops for the last month (at least), but after Super Tuesday and Edwards suspending his campaign the writing is on the wall.

Kerry would have to get 0% in the rest of the primaries to not get to 2162 (even if he comes in second he'll still get delegates...ie, Vermont).

[Nicholas_J]

30. Yup

Kerry only needs to take 35 or 40 percent of all of the remaining states to get enough delegates to win the nomination and polls for the remining states showed him far ahead in all of those states evem before super tuesday. With only Kucinich and Sharpton running against him in the remaining 20 states, and with the momentum gained from his super tuesday wins , he is simply more likely to to better than earlier polls indicated, than worse, there. In just one day, from yesterday to today Kerry's delgate count rose from 1557 to 1626, with more superdelegates jumping onboard the Kerry bandwagon. thats 69 delegates in a single day with no primaries. Leaves 536 delegates for Kerry to win in a little under five months. There are enough delegates left in the remaining 536 he needs to win the nomination by getting less than 40 percent in every remaining primary without an additional sperdelegate. Before supertuesday, Kerry had the support of more superdelegates than all of the other candidates put together
( Kerry went into super tuesday with 259 superdelegates, compared to the next highest, Edwards, with 39 superdelegates) In every mathemenatical breakdownm the only way for Kerry to lose is for not one single super delegate to support him, and for him to get less than aoutr 35 percent of all of the pledged delegates in the remaining states. Given that Kerry was given the support of about 30 percent of the 801 superdelegates available prior to supertuesday, it is just a likely, as todays 69 superdelegates shows, that more delgates are going to join Kerry rather than throw their support to the only two candidates left. They can only give their support to candidates who are actively running, not to candidates who have suspended their campaigns.

[retread]

28. You should share what you're smoking! n/t

[Renew Deal]

32. I will vote for Bush

if lets say the sun explodes.