National polls are meaningless - only state polls matter!

[fujiyama]

Remember, Gore WON the popular vote last time and many polls had Bush beating Gore by a huge margin.

Gore pulled it off and won the electoral votes in Florida as well, and would be president were it not for 5 supreme court justices, the brother of one of the men running, and a woman determined at any costs not to let the state go to Gore. Gore came back from a HUGE defecit in the polls. All that matters is the EC.

The democratic base will come out in droves -- I don't see Bush having the appeal to various bluecollar workers Reagan had. Sure, Bush will win a few over with his talk of terra and nothing else, but I think more will be inclined to vote for Kerry, that voted for Bush last time, because many feel sort of cheated that Bush really ISN'T a "compassionate" conservative, but a nasty, neo fascist kind.

Kerry needs to get a POSITIVE message out. He needs to loosen up. He needs to start giving CLEAR answers.

If he does that, and fights back, and answers every charge this reckless, inept group of criminals makes, he has a good chance of winning.

I can't see many that voted for Nader voting again. Remember, Nader had 6% many times throughout the election year in '00. This shouldn't worry people.

Our goal shouldn't be pandering. Naderites are like any other independant and primary voting bloc, except that this is group really ISN'T effected much by Bush's policies.

We have to remind people that Bush's policies are a failure AND more importantly give a reason WHY our policies are better -- and when it is needed -- to campaign dirty. We're in this to win -- because we MUST!

[fujiyama]

1. kick!

[ithacan]

2. yes and no

technically you are correct; the election is actually going to take place on a state by state basis, and the electoral votes are what count.

But there is a tremendous symbolic value in the nationwide polling. They indicate the mood of the country overall, and that does I think have an effect on some swing voters. If nationwide Bush was at 40 and Kerry at 60, that would lead to some swing voters shifting to Kerry. If it were the opposite, the opposite might happen.

They are also important in bringing out the base nationwide.

That said, the campaign must (and I'm sure will) keep its eyes on the individual races in the swing states.