So who IS the most electable?

[PurityOfEssence]

Well folks, here we are. Many of us are holding our tongues more than usual for various reasons like disgust, fatigue and a desire to not heap more derision on either of the two people who will shortly be our standard-bearers, but the time is upon us, and I hope the right choice is made.

There's so little important difference between the two on policy and the character issue is a depressing one to even bring up. What matters now is who is more electable. Anyone who thinks we've got this election in the bag doesn't know anything about history or much about human nature, and now that the reactionaries have mustered the sense we can't to fall in behind their most electable candidate, the crossover issue is paramount.

So who is more electable? I simply don't know, and that's why I'm asking. For quite awhile, I was under the impression that Senator Clinton's unfavorables were the clincher, and that she only had a chance if things went horribly for the Republicans, but now I'm not so sure.

Here are a few points as grist, and I look forward to the input of the rest of you. Regardless of their failings, they're considerably better for mankind than McCain.

Clinton has name recognition, nostalgia for the "good old days", galvanized support from many women and men who want to see a woman as president, resoluteness, focus, a luster of survivability and serious moxie. Anyone who looks at her record can hardly see her as some bolshevik, and this SHOULD spur some moderates to come to their senses, regardless of the tarring as a liberal she's endured for seemingly forever. Yes, she's got HUGE unfavorables, but we can't forget that many women will vote for her simply because of her gender, and this will net some people who would NEVER vote Democratic otherwise. Whether this is enough to overcome the unfavorables (that have even reached 52% on occasion) is another question, but it's not to be sneezed at; women are a majority and they vote.

Obama has the novelty star appeal, didn't vote for the IWR, has carefully-cultivated crossover appeal, charisma and momentum. He doesn't have huge unfavorables, but does he really bring a new constituency to the party? Blacks vote Democratic, so he brings an increased turnout, but the turnout of white racists will also increase. The youth vote is the will-o-the-wisp of every cycle; will this be the time they finally show up? Beats me. History isn't very positive on this count. The religion hucksterism will certainly net him something, but much of the hard-shelled religious right has a pretty wide streak of racism about it, so what that benefit will be is also open to question. The racism issue is huge, just as the misogyny issue is for Senator Clinton. I personally believe that this country is grown up enough to elect a woman or a black person, but there's certainly going to be some resistance. Recently, however, I've been wondering about the race issue in a big way; what people say in public or do in a public forum like a caucus is often very different than what they do behind a curtain. This might explain New Hampshire and Florida. A recent Hispanic interviewee on NPR said that she didn't want to see a black president because "they'd be so full of themselves" if one of them was president. This stopped me in my tracks. Remember: Hispanic culture is actually rather conservative by nature, even though they've voted Democratic due to economic policy. That's also about 14% of the population...

So what do you all think? Not knowing who has the best chance at the moment, I'm voting for Edwards. It's simply that I want the most electable person and I just don't know who that is; thus, I'll cast a neutral vote.

What are your thoughts?

[FlyingSquirrel]

1. My thought is that a vote for Edwards...

Is a vote that empowers him at the Convention at the expense of the DLC!

[MadBadger]

2. I Honestly feel that the Republicans will be energized to stop Hillary Clinton.

There may be racists that dont like Obama, but I think taht will be outweighed by the even larger African American turnout. Not to mention, Obama connects with youth voters like we havent seen in recent times. I am extremely confident that with him as the nominee, the youth will come out. And finally, he is excellent at drawing Independents, and that is key to winning an election.

[PurityOfEssence]

3. Yes, but will that tip the balance?

I fully agree that the trogs will crawl out from under every rock to crush her, and that many moderates won't vote for any woman, but even a modest increase from within a 51% majority is a hell of a lot more than a sizeable increase in turnout from a 12% minority.

As for the independent issue, isn't this seriously affected by the choosing of McCain? Think of how many people on this board have had such good things to say about him. Think of his twinkly eyed "niceness" that is quite disarming.

Your points are the same ones that I've seen as his advantages over Senator Clinton's, but now I'm not so sure.

[MadBadger]

5. You need to remember that Over 70 percent of America wants out Iraq, while McCain wants to stay.

I think there are a sizeable amount of independents who are against the war and that could tip the balance towards Obama.

[PurityOfEssence]

9. Nine months is a long time

The casualty rates are way down. It's easy to paint the surge as successful and a stalwart stance against the cowardly defeatism of the lefties, and this is just what he'll do.

War? What war? Is it in the news? Is it as important as the economy that's all the fault of the party that controls Congress? Don't quibble with your pesky reality, people have a wonderful ability to ignore it wholesale.

In times of uncertainty, fear and steadfastness sell.

I don't dismiss your contention, though, and if a Tet Offensive or other pivotal flare-up happened, the country could turn on a dime and sweep a Democratic coattail victory that will make our little hearts sing. Then again, it could all blow up in our face and give us another Republican president who will put a couple of 40 year-old nazis on the Supreme Court for seemingly forever.

Once again, though, my only point to divine here is which of the two Democrats (well, more or less Democrats) has the better chance in the general election. I suppose Obama has the edge if people are truly against the war, but not by much, since Clinton advocates effectively the same action.

[MadBadger]

10. As Obama said in the debate, voting against the war helps a lot.

Also look at the primaries in states like Iowa and NH. Obama took more independents than anybody did, even McCain.

[LadyVT]

4. Impossible to know until the nomination is decided.

Too much Republican influence in there to know at this point--i.e., they would like Obama to win. Also, it's very, very early.

[PurityOfEssence]

7. How would it even be possible then?

One would need a control universe where the other is chosen to truly know. This is all hypothetical, but I would like to get a sense of opinion. Ability to win the nomination has nothing to do with ability to win the general election.

Everything is filtered through one's assumptions and prejudices--and we all have them--to such a degree that it's hard to keep a level head at times like these. Biased and difficult though I am, I am truly curious how others see all this, and I hope the right move is made the day after tomorrow.

[Cleita]

6. McCain will get the centrist and independent votes that ordinarily would go for a Democrat

that the other Republicans can't get. However, the only candidate who has a good chance of beating McCain is John Edwards, who has been edged out by Clinton and Obama. If they were eliminated, Edwards would have the winning votes against McCain. Clinton or Obama will have a really close election against McCain unless they pick a running mate that can balance out their negatives that would keep the independent and centrist voters from voting for them.

[PurityOfEssence]

8. I'm afraid you're right.

It's not just sadness or the powerlessness of having been thwarted for a second time (I was a resolute Edwards supporter in '03-'04, too) but a feeling that the most viable candidate was thrown away for truly silly reasons. There was quite a tiresome overconfidence in '04, too, and look where that got us.

Worse still, just what qualities in a running mate could compensate for the drawbacks of these two? To appease Hillary-haters, even Wes Clark won't do; she'd need to run with Tony Scalia or Bigfoot to run away from her own shadow enough. As for Obama, he'd need David Duke on board to keep the hounds at bay.

I've joked that it's a question of "can't win" (Ms. 52% Unfavorable) or "won't win", but I hope I'm wrong.

[McCamy Taylor]

11. John Edwards!

[PurityOfEssence]

12. Not now

Sadly.

[FrenchieCat]

13. Far as I'm concerned........against both Republicans,

Obama is more electable.

And I don't believe that the youth would go to the trouble of getting registered and voting in the primaries, and then "skipping out" on the General election....especially if it's Obama on the ballot.

That wouldn't make any sense.

In reference to who strongest against McCain in particular-- That would be Barack.


Iraq War -
McCain’s position:
I’m am a big time War Hero. We were right to go into Iraq. Saddam gone is good. I know what to do to win this war. I wanted to send more troops at the beginning, and I urged for the surge when most were against it. I stood on my principles, and I was right. I want to leave Iraq, but we can leave victorious. It’s important to stay, because if not, there will be genocide, and Al Qeada will be left to rule Iraq, and turn it into a terrorist state.

Clinton’s position:
Cannot argue about how we got into this war. She has said that she wanted Saddam gone and that he being gone was good. She is forced to move on to how the war was fought. She had a lot of problems with Rumsfeld and how the war was conducted. She will only be in agreement with McCain, cause he thinks that the war wasn’t fought correctly either. Hillary was against the surge, and if the surge is still being portrayed as having been successful, Hillary loses points on a technicality, and it weakens the rest of her argument to get us out of Iraq.

McCain wins the Iraq War debate, even though most people want out...

Obama’s Position:
Obama argues that the War should never have been fought or authorized. That as much experience McCain is supposed to have with war, he voted for the debacle that cost trillions and killed hundreds of thousands. The war was based on lies, and there were no WMD. It was a Dumb war, and those who supported it who should have known better. Part of the reason our economy is so terrible is because we are being held hostage by the Chinese and other countries we have to borrow money from because of our forced expenditure in Iraq. Obama’s Iraq War opposition provides backbone to go into the economic issues that progressives want. McCain can talk about Governmental pork....but Obama can point out that the war is the biggest porker. Obama shows without going any further that he has superior judgement on national security decisions.

Obama can then move on with the upper hand on how to get out of Iraq. His argument will have more credibility than McCain’s ...and his argument gets us out of Iraq.

Obama wins the Iraq War debate, and plus we get to get out.

[candice]

14. The entire Republican Party fought Clinton in her last election....and

failed miserably. She has served her constituents well and won just about every Republican county.

Why did she face the big Republican big guns? The Republicans knew she planned to run for President and wanted to cut her off, preferring not to run against such a strong candidate.

Obama's Republican opposition in his Senate campaign two years ago self-destructed. The guy's estranged wife let it be known that her husband visited sex clubs and that handed the election to Obama.

Very lucky, but not the test of fire.

[flyarm]

15. Edwards! eom

[Jamastiene]

16. 50/50. Toss a coin, literally.

Both are Dem candidates, but America is so behind the times when it comes to issues involving "isms" in our society.

The GE could go anyway we could possibly imagine and possibly a few ways we could not. Something, a gut feeling, tells me it will. This is going to be a strange one.

[Skittles]

17. I don't base my vote on who racist/sexist assholes may vote for

that's for DAMN sure