Some numbers everyone needs to know in regard to red swingstates

[Bombtrack]

It's pretty clear in my opinion that the 2 "bluest"
red swingstates are NH and FL. And I think that considering
Florida is by far the most valuable with 27 votes, it's
prudent to chose Bob Graham for vp. 
The last digit is 3 quarters of the Nader vote subtracted from
the margin of loss.

St EV  	Margin# Mrgn% Gore,   Bush,   Nader, other 3/4 Nader-
						       Margin	
FL 27	    537	0.01% 48.84%  48.85%  1.63%  0.68%  +1.21

OH 23	165,019 3.51% 46.46%  49.97%  2.50%  1.07%  -1.64

MO 11	 78,786 3.34% 47.08%  50.42%  1.63%  0.86%  -2.12

AZ 10 	 96,311 6.28% 44.67%  50.95%  2.98%  1.40%  -4.05 

CO  9  	145,518 8.36% 42.39%  50.75%  5.25%  1.61%  -4.42

WV  5 	 40,978 6.32% 45.59%  51.92%  1.65%  0.84%  -5.08  

NV  5    21,597 3.55% 45.98%  49.52%  2.46%  2.04%  -1.71

NH  4     7,211 1.27% 46.80%  48.07%  3.90%  1.23%  +1.65

AR  5	 50,172 5.44% 45.86%  51.31%  1.46%  1.37%  -4.35

[Florida_Geek]

1. Bob "I love the Patriot's Act" Graham

Ya right.

[Bombtrack]

3. He has never said that.

I don't think 1 senator of either party has said that the PatriotAct should be repealed. Including Feingold, the only one who didn't sign it. Every democrat and republican on the intelligence committee worked on the act. Graham was the ranking dem on the intelligence committee, he wasn't the attorney general who abused it and rushed it through. And Graham is against stopping the sunset unless it is ammended signifigantly to prevent further abuse

[FloridaPat]

2. Florida was stolen last time. They are going to try to do it again.

I like Bob Graham, but he doesn't show much of a personality on TV. Edwards would do better across the entire south. We need troops here in Florida to make sure the new electronic voting machines aren't tampered with. So bring them home now!!!

[Bombtrack]

5. There is only one southern state that is competative for Kerry!

And if you know HOW it was stolen it's obvious that there is zero chance of the same thing happening again. After all the things that happened which have no chance of happening again(100 thousand Nader votes, jews for Buchanon, an undetermined number of new purged minorities) we STILL only lost by 537 votes. It won't be that close this time if Graham is on the ticket, they can't go to recount and have the supreme court stop it if it's not close.

And if you use new technology paranoia as an excuse then, you must forfiet every state and county with new election reform, and/or a Bush loyal governor and/or sec of state, in which case, you forfiet the election

[randr]

4. It will be important for the Dems to

spend a good deal of money in Fla and Ohio regardless of outcome. The Repugs will be forced to spend money on what should be their base.
Just as they are now wasting political capitol on shoring up the far right, a group they should have the their pocket.
The Repugs will be using the same strategy in California.
The west holds the best hope as there are so many disenfranchised "Goldwater" repugs. Energy policy will play big.

[Bombtrack]

6. bump

.

[alcuno]

7. Yeah but little ole Arizona would do the trick.

And they now have a popular Democratic governor. Dems could take the exact same states as last time, no Ohio, no Florida, no Missouri, no New Hampshire, and just win Arizona and you are done. Dems win.

[Bombtrack]

11. She barely won. Everybody does not deserve the "popular"

label. Whenever anybody is touting somebody they call them popular here and popular there.

We're more likely to win Florida than Arizona. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to win Arizona, it just means it is a lower priority than states with more electoral votes that are not signifigantly redder than it.

[alcuno]

20. Fine. She's not popular but she is a Democrat.

Last Arizona poll I saw had *'s approval at about 40%. It's ripe for the picking.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

8. They're talking about our other FL Senator - Bill Nelson

He's a bit more liberal than Graham and is a lot younger.

[Bombtrack]

12. Nelson is not young at all, he's 60 and Graham is 67

Neither of them are going to Make the ticket seem more "youthful". However Graham is the most popular politican in Florida and Nelson is a guy who barely won his first statewide election 3 years ago. And unlike Graham, we would lose another senate seat if he became vp.

[Padraig18]

9. FL is gonna stay red.

Jebbie will only let FL go blue when we pry his family's cold, dead hands off of the electoral machinery there, and that AIN'T gonna happen this year.

FL is a political wet-dream, not a realistic possibilty...

[Bombtrack]

13. Why the F do you have to continue this idiotic tirade! It's total bull

You keep posting this clouded paranoid vagueness no matter how many times I ask you to be substantiative when I refute your disinformation. You're not the only one doing it, but your all refuse to comply to any honest and logical discourse

[Padraig18]

15. We will when you will.

Based on what happened in FL in both 2000 AND 2002, I see no reason whatsoever to be confident that we will win ANYTHING in FL in 2004, and you've provided no convincing argument to refute that, Bombtrack.

Call it paranoid vagueness if it makes you feel superior, but the objective electoral evidence supports MY position, not yours.

[Bombtrack]

19. In 2002 Every New England state other than ME voted for a GOP governor

so does Bush now have some lock on New England?

All you have to do is understand exactly all the things that happened in the 2000 election in Florida and realize that it's not a possibility of the same things occuring again. If you want to complain about the possibility of different things happening because of election REFORM and say that that forfeits the election there then you have to forfeit it EVERYWHERE. You can't keep up this charade without some, no make that alot of, specificity.

What red states are we going to procure the electoral votes from if you're telling Floridian democrats that although with EVERYTHING THAT HAPPENED the vote margin was STILL 537 votes, that it's NOT COMPETATIVE.

[Padraig18]

22. No one said we shouldn't compete there.

First, with BBV AND Nader in the mix, stealing FL is going to be child's play for Bush. The facts are that there are other states where WE control the electoral machinery to ensure that the vote ISN'T stolen, but FL is not among them. The states I refer to are in the Midwest and Southwest.

I KNOW you would dearly love the VP to be a Floridian--- hell, I'd love it to be an Illinoisan--- but FL is far too risky to put all our eggs in it's basket, when we can get equal numbers of eggs-- or ENOUGH eggs, at least--- to get the job doen elsewhere.

Your numbers are just that--- numbers. They do not MEAN anything in terms of the 2004 election, Bombtarck, and you can't bootstrap them up into meaning anything.

[Bombtrack]

24. No state has political parties that control election machinary

the FEC maintains an independant oversight and juristiction nationally.

If BBV is what you beleive is being used and will be used to steal elections, then by that logic every state with new machines is forfeited by that logic. But you're not using logic. Having a vp from Florida is NOT putting all our eggs in one basket any more than any other vp is. You still haven't said what states are more likely because they all fail to meet your paranoid clouded logic. All republican governors are lockstep loyal to Bush. And most states have had new voting technology implelemented.

[Padraig18]

25. Two words:

Katherine Harris.

Don't insult my intelligence by trying to tell me a party doesn't control the electoral machinery, Bombtrack. I wasn't born yesterday, and I wasn't comatose in November 2000, either...:eyes:

[Bombtrack]

26. A one-time voter roll purge list and interfering in a RECOUNT is not

equatable with whatever the hell you've been lead to believe happened regarding machinary.

[welshTerrier2]

10. Your analysis falls short

i think you need to look at more than just the "bluest" red states ...

it's also important to look at the "reddest" blue states ... some of the states that Gore carried were very, very close ...

looking at how to win red states is important but it's just as important to ensure that you don't lose any blue states ...

add the "big picture" to your analysis and then recommend a VP choice ...

[Bombtrack]

14. here

St EV Margin# Mrgn% Gore, Bush, Nader, other 3/4 Nader+D
- Margin
PA 21 204,840 4.17% 50.60% 46.43% 2.10% 0.87% 5.75

MI 17 217,279 5.13% 51.28% 46.14% 1.99% 0.59% 7.12

MN 10 58,607 2.40% 47.91% 45.50% 5.20% 1.40% 7.60

WI 10 5,708 0.22% 47.83% 47.61% 3.62% 0.93% +2.94

IW 7 4,144 0.31% 48.54% 48.22% 2.23% 1.01% +1.98

OR 7 6,765 0.44% 46.96% 46.52% 5.04% 1.48% +4.22

NM 5 366 0.06% 47.91% 47.85% 3.55% 0.69% +2.72

[welshTerrier2]

23. but your new data prove my point

look at how close some of the states were in the midwest ...

Gore won:
MN: 2.40%
WI .22%
IW .31%

and bush won Missouri and Ohio by less than 3.50% each ...

my point is not to argue against putting Graham on the ticket as VP ... but your analysis that he would help win florida fails to acknowledge that he might not do much to help hold some of the very close states in the midwest ... or help Kerry win Missouri or Ohio ...

perhaps more thought should be given to a midwesterner ... i hate to say it but they might be considering Gephardt ... i really hope not ...

comments ??

[Bombtrack]

27. Gephardt isn't more popular in the midwest than anyone. Iowa proves that

He isn't even Missouri's favorite son. The only thing he's even won is one urban district. Never statewide. And clearly the labor movement doesn't even believe in him

[welshTerrier2]

28. good point ...

as i said, i hope they don't choose Gephardt ...

but he's not the only midwesterner to choose from ...

[fujiyama]

16. It's important...

to remind people that Gore carried some states by less than 1%. That's barely a win if you ask me. That's a tie.

It makes it all the more difficult to win if we lose states Gore won.

I've looked at Edwards website a million times and the way I see it is, if /kerry wins all states Gore won last time, and NH, it's 259. Add WV and we have 269 -- a tie and then the House votes for the chimp. If we could only win NH and FL we win. We could even afford to lose OR and IA -- granted these are two states we shouldn't lose considering even Dukakis carried it in '88. Of course he also carried WV and Gore lost that. I'm starting to think that state is trending more rightward just like the rest of the south. I would invest in it, but there are some states I'd invest in more.

[tedoll78]

32. They're 260, not 259.

Arizona alone? That's 10.

North Carolina alone? That's 15!

West Virginia + Nevada? They're 5 each.

Ohio? That's 20.

Arkansas + New Hampshire? They're 6 and 4, respectively.

I like a strategy where we make Ohio target #1 this year, with Arizona as a back-up.

[WiseMen]

17. Remove Nader and All the BlueStates are secure. SIMPLE.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

18. Where did you get the figures?

I want to look up my state.

[Bombtrack]

21. dave leips political atlas

. google

[Bombtrack]

29. bump

.

[BruinAlum]

30. Where's IA, PA, NM, MI, IL to name a few?

edit: nevermind - you said red swingstates.

[Bombtrack]

31. yeah, you're not the first person to call me out

before really reading the title, see above.

[Bombtrack]

33. bump

.