If Obama has a Strong Showing on Super Tuesday...

[Bullet1987]

It seems as though the Zogby and Rasmussen polls are showing it much better for Obama than some of the others (ARG, etc). But there is one thing that is almost undeniable...Barack Obama is riding a wave. Sadly, the polls are too all over the place to make any kind of accurate prediction without just throwing darts (with regards to the toss up states). California and New Jersey have conflicting polls coming out. In CA, Zogby says Obama is ahead, the Field Poll and Rasmussen say it's neck and neck, others say Clinton is ahead. In NJ, some say Clinton still has a double-digit lead, others say Obama has closed the gap to single-digits.

One thing is certain though, if Obama has a strong showing and has the most delegates coming out of Super Tuesday...he'll be considered by a lot of people as the favorite going into the Convention. I read a thread somewhere that said the remaining states are states Obama is polling very well in. A strong showing on ST could reinforce that. Truth be told, this is Obama's last BIG hurdle in trying to get the nomination. If he can make it out either close to Clinton or like I said, ahead in delegates...there's little Clinton can do after that. Even though the Media hasn't talked about it alot, the Clinton campaign has committed some big gaffe's this election.

If Obama is leading in delegates going into the Convention, and he's the clear favorite, I find it very hard to believe the Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated. Not only will it look bad on the part of the DNC (who earlier took the delegates away), but it would create real tension within the Party. Many people will argue that Clinton was GIVEN the nomination, and I find it very hard to believe that many Democrats will have good feelings towards her if she gets the nomination because of that.

Hopefully, tomarrow is the beginning of the end of the Clinton campaign. If not, it'll go on much longer.

[papau]

1. It is looking like the corporate media push for their choice - Obama - will mean a win for O on 2/5

[sabbat hunter]

4. huh? n/t

[sabbat hunter]

2. Michigan and Florida

screwed up seriously.


We need to adopt the Delaware plan or the California plan at the DNC in Denver. This way in 2012 and going forward we wont have this mess any more.

[Bullet1987]

3. The packed primaries screwed things up too...

[sabbat hunter]

5. Thats why

we need to push for the adoption of the plans I mentioned in my previous post. Will get rid of this packed schedule once and for all.

[bigtree]

6. close won't count. There are over 2000 delegates to be awarded Tuesday

Almost every poll, including the ones which also show California moving toward Obama, show the overall vote (all 22 states combined) to favor Clinton by a comfortable margin.

[cloudythescribbler]

7. By my reading, Obama could fall WELL short of 'most' ST delegates, and STILL benefit --

my thinking is that as long as Obama comes OUT of ST (or rather "Tsunami Tuesday") at least as viable for the nomination as he went in, the media meme will be of an Obama "surge" and of his unexpected strength. This is Hillary's firewall, and if it fails (even if she wins eg in BOTH CA and NJ, and some other contested states like NM, as seems quite possible) and leaves Obama within sight of the nomination, he will continue strong through Feb into March (possible crises involving Rezko or other unexpected stuff could derail him) but will be on the way to becoming the CLEAR lead candidate before the March 4 primary day.

I think that some of the polls (like Zogby) set the expectations for Obama awfully high.

GOBAMA (among other things, becoming more clearly what I have felt all along -- the strongest CANDIDATE to face repugs like McCain in Nov, and the more thoughtful and open-minded president)!!!!!