New Ohio Poll: Hillary: 42, Obama: 19

[NJSecularist]

http://dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/02/03/POLL03.ART_ART_02-03-08_A1_T197O4N.html?sid=101

Barack Obama has convinced Iowa, South Carolina and even Teddy Kennedy.

But the Illinois senator has yet to make the sale in Ohio.

A new Dispatch Poll shows New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds more than a 2-to-1 lead over Obama among Ohio Democrats.

Will Hillary squander this lead too?

[quinnox]

1. whoa

Hillary is leading big time there, it will depend on super tuesday if Obama can eat into that lead or if it is maintained by Hillary.

[Renew Deal]

6. It might not matter by then.

Ohio is in a month.

[OzarkDem]

27. It will matter in the GE. As Ohio goes, so goes the nation

Ohio is a huge battleground state. Don't assume Clinton's support would transfer to Obama should he win the nom. And don't assume independents/swing voters would support him here either.

Ohio isn't like California.

[liberalnurse]

18. She campaigned here pre-06 for many Democrats here...

and they won....She loves Ohio Democrats and Ohio loves the Clintons.

[featherman]

2. That's a tall hill to climb... we shall see

I'd be more concerned if Clinton was polling above 50% than at 42% with such an enormous undecided (39%), nearly equalling her support.
Read into it what you will

[Renew Deal]

7. Obama has polled terribly in Ohio

I don't know why.

[featherman]

14. Keith number (MOE + Undecided) is what? 42-44%. Early days yet

Grain of salt

[OzarkDem]

31. He's too slick

Probably a lot of people relate him to Ken Blackwell, who is widely disliked here and has a similar persona as Obama.

[pgh_dem]

36. Probably? Probably a Democratic Senator and candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination...

is "probably" seen as similar to Republican Ken Blackwell, who in dual roles as campaign co-Chair for Bush/Cheney 04 and Ohio SOS did everything in his power to frustrate the ability of Democratic voters to register, to vote, to have their votes counted, and to legally and completely recount them?

Holy shit.

Gotta let me know *exactly* what they have in common.

Probably, my ass.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

3. well

They haven't been subjected to Obama's magical message of change and hope yet.

[goldcanyonaz]

4. The kool-aid brigade will be coming to town soon.

[cd3dem]

29. one has to wonder where the republicans are sending their donations?

[Unsane]

5. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus = Obama country

I doubt he's even run an ad there yet.

[The Delegates]

8. Ohio is a month away and Obama has done little campaigning there

As we have seen - where Obama campaigns, Obama does well.

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. Why is Obama so weak in Ohio?

That is worrisome for Novemeber if he wins the nomination. Obama is doing better in New York than in Ohio according to this very recent poll.

[MadBadger]

10. 39% undecided?

[MadBadger]

11. Obama just started his campaign there.

[OzarkDem]

17. The Edwards Gap

For the last several months, Edwards polled very well in Ohio, has high favorability ratings. His suspension of his campaign has left a large percentage of people with no clear choice.

[Barack_America]

As a Michigander, this only tells me that what I've always believed about Ohio...

...was right. ;)

[riqster]

23. Buckeyes can choke Wolverines

;-)

[Clarkansas]

12. How many delegates will Hillary get from OH on Tuesday?

Has Obama spent much time there?

[debatepro]

15. They don't vote on tuesday.

He will have plenty of time to campaign there.

[Meshuga]

13. The primary is in March

There is still a lot of time until the election in Ohio. It is a hill for Obama to climb but he can do it.

[book_worm]

16. When is Ohio?

[OzarkDem]

19. March 4 - 162 delegates n/t

[scheming daemons]

20. What we've seen is that Hillary's number stays basically static...

She probably WILL get between 42 and 48 in Ohio.

The number that moves is almost ALWAYS the challenger.


The first rule of political campaigns is that if an "incumbent" is not polling above or at 50%, then they are in trouble. People have already made up their mind about the "incumbent", so their number is usually at or near its ceiling. As they find out about a challenger, his/her number moves.

Because of Hillary's name recognition, she is the "incumbent" for all intents and purposes in this race.


Look at her California numbers... people are calling it a collapse, but it really isn't. She was at 45-ish a month ago and is STILL there. But Obama has gone from 28 to 45-ish.

She isn't bleeding support, but Obama is picking up almost ALL of the undecideds and former Edwards supporters.


Obama's 19 in Ohio will be double that once he starts campaigning there. The question is whether Hillary can hold him off, because she's not likely to go up much.

[VolcanoJen]

21. I'm in Ohio, I'm plugged in campaign stuff...

... and nobody's campaigning here, not yet. That will all change on Wednesday, I imagine, and I hope so, because I'd like to see the candidates!

But, I fully expect those numbers to tighten up once the campaign begins in earnest in Ohio. I would be shocked if Hillary could come out on top in southwestern Ohio alone.

[Connie_Corleone]

24. Yep. I just signed up to volunteer locally here.

If Obama wins big Super Tuesday, his poll numbers will rise here, pluse he'll be campaigning here too.

[OzarkDem]

26. Clinton is campaigning here

Big Dog was in Cleveland last week. He's always been very popular with Dems in NE Ohio.

[VolcanoJen]

34. Oh, I was speaking about the candidates.

Is Hillary making appearances in NE Ohio?

I did misspeak a little before... Obama was in Cincinnati for a fundraiser last March, but no public rallies or anything of that nature yet.

[Thrill]

22. This is another that will change when he actually visits stay

[grantcart]

25. are there any other polls in Ohio. this looks a little odd

with JE at 19 % and Obama 20 after JE drops out.

[OzarkDem]

28. Its as reliable as any

Obama doesn't have a lot of support in Ohio, never has.

[VolcanoJen]

41. Laughable.

You need to spend an hour in downtown Cincinnati during lunch before spewing such absolutisms. :-)

[Joanne98]

40. There's a lot of JE fans here.

[Didereaux]

30. Not to worry- The Oprah &Teddy Show will bring light to the deluded!

[Hippo_Tron]

32. Remind me what Obama was polling in California a month ago

[VolcanoJen]

33. Nice point.

;-)

[moosen]

35. wow, Ohio is Clinton Country!

[OzarkDem]

39. Always has been

Bill Clinton always made it a practice to campaign here frequently. He got more votes here than most Dem presidential candidates in recent history.

[stillcool]

37. a lot can happen in a month..

from same article..

Although Ohioans have seen little firsthand of the intensely competitive 2008 presidential campaign, that almost certainly will change if the race stretches beyond this week's Super Tuesday contests in multiple states across the country.
-----------------------------
Obama supporters, who held their first Ohio organizational meeting yesterday in Columbus, say he will make enormous gains once he starts campaigning here. And the poll only reflects partisan registered voters; Obama has benefited from a surge among independents in several early-primary states (as has McCain).

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/02/03/POLL03.ART_ART_02-03-08_A1_T197O4N.html?type=rss&cat=&sid=101

[Hoof Hearted]

38. March the 4th? That's an eternity away.

I'm pretty sure we'll have it worked out by then.