Predictions: When all is said and done, This is how it will shake out tonight(with delegates)

[Perky]

Well reasoned predictions for Super Tuesday

EVERYONE should keep this in mind before overly prognosticating future results .
The rules for apportionment of Delegates are based on percentage of vote at the Congressional District level

1. If you do not get 15% in CD you get nothing (both candidate will meet this threshold each and every time)
2. If you get between 15% and 40% you get a pro-rata portion (that is going to be very rare in a two person race)
3. If two candidates get over 40% they split the delegates evenly (This is going to happen nearly all the time)
4. If you get more than 63% you get bonus Delegates. (my suspicion is that Obama has a leg up here in Urban areas and (as evidenced by SC) areas of the deep south)

Not all districts have the same number of delegates within the state. Apparently the DNC allots according to Dem votes in the last presidential election. The state then allots to the Congressional Districts based on how blue the district went in the last election. It thus stands to reason that urban districts are going to have slightly greater quantities with in a state when compared to non-urban. So if both Obama and Clinton get over 40%, he would stand to get the extra delegate if the total quantity of delegates is an odd number.... Otherwise they are likely to split the delegates nearly every time.

At the At-large state level my understanding is that the rules are the same. The chances of anyone busting through the 63% threshold is very unlikely except possibly in Arkansas and Oklahoma for Clinton and Illinois for Obama. My guess is that neither does that...and thus the at large delegates will split evenly across the country.

Here is how the Delegates break out in each Super Tuesday state

(Congressional District-level/State At-large)Level


In analyzing the Polling data here is how I think it is going to shake out In terms of Delegates NOT in terms of Popular Vote.

Obama does seem poised to do very well in caucus states because of organization superiorly (Examples: He has thirteen paid staffers in Kansas, Hillary has 1. In ND it is 6-1)

Solid Wins for Clinton

Tennessee (44/24)
Arkansas (22/13)
Oklahoma (25/13)

Solid Wins for Obama

Idaho (12/6)(Caucus)
Georgia (57/30)
Alabama (34/18)
Illinois (100/53)
Kansas (21/11) (Caucus)
North Dakota (8/5) (Caucus)
Utah (15/8)


Marginal wins for Clinton 53-55% of Delegates

New York (151/81)(she is leading in statewide polls...but the District Density and recent media endorsements in Metro New York area favor Obama in terms of Delegates.)

Marginal wins for Obama 53-55% of Delegates

Alaska (8/5)
California (241/129)(Hillary will not get the expected bump from Hispanics) The Bay area is on fire for Obama)
Minnesota (47/25) (Caucus)
New Mexico (17/12)(Caucus)
Colorado (36/17)(Caucus)
Delaware (10/5)
Democrats Abroad (0/7)

Toss-ups Where Clinton has Momentum but too late to make a real delegate difference

None


Toss-ups Where Obama has Momentum but too late to make a real delegate difference The PV could go the other way but the Delegate count will break a little bit for Obama.

New Jersey (70/37)
Connecticut (33/17)
Massachusetts (61/32)
Missouri (47/25)
Arizona(37/19)


Not enough Data to make a call

American Samoa(0/3)



Overall, I think Obama is going to increase his Delegate lead among (voted delegates) because he is going win far bigger in Illinois then Clinton is going win in NY. The larger delegate count in NY compared to Obama is probably offset by the number of smaller states that Hillary is not seriously contesting (Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota)

Everything else pretty much washes out to a tie.

On the PV side Obama is going to get 54% nationally on super Tuesday.

The real victory is going to be "momentum" because the pundit discussion is going to focus a lot on how much Obama caught up.

[Perky]

1. Kicking for adding Delegate counts

[ISUGRADIA]

2. I did a spreadsheet using poll results and some personal feelings on some states

It won't be exact because of the congressional district rules you outlined but I think it will be very close as to the delegates awarded on 2-5 alone, maybe a 10-20 delegate advantage out of the 1600+ to Clinton over Obama meaning this race will go on for quite a while. I'd agree with how you have most states broken out. IL a big win for Obama (mid 60s) offsets a bit of Clinton's closer win in NY (mid 50s)

[Perky]

5. The District level stuff is mind numbing

I have yet to find a gooud source for how florida shook out at that level. All I can find is County level stuff.

My spreadsheet includes key exit polling data as well. I am a sick sick puppy

[ISUGRADIA]

6. The district numbers are a pain to find and get into to analyse

[TexasObserver]

3. That's a good analysis, and probably within 10 percent

On both popular vote and delegates.

I expect them to split states about evenly, with perhaps an edge to Obama, and split the delegates about evenly, with perhaps an edge to Obama.

Anything less than a clear cut win for Hillary will be interpreted as a win for Obama. One year of inevitability and the huckstering that went with it are now the anchor that will pull her down.

[Uncle Sinister]

4. Clinton 900, Obama 700, Edwards 61

No spreadsheet, but a reasonably educated guess.

[ISUGRADIA]

7. I'm guessing 10 or less Edwards delegates, if that

I'm just not seeing where he'll break 15% in any state or congressional districts given the numbers when he was actively campaigning.

[cd3dem]

8. WOW you're more drunk then MSNBC