Poll of CA Dems. Feb 3-4th: Obama 49%, Clinton 36%!

[jenmito]

WOW!!! Just saw it on MSNBC. Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll.

[tritsofme]

1. Gee whiz, this is probably the first time this poll has been posted today.

nt

[Kittycat]

3. first time I'm seeing it. Thank you OP for sharing.

[jenmito]

8. No problem! It's the first I saw it, too, or I wouldn't have started a thread on it.

:hi:

[mutant80]

17. self delete

self delete

[RiverStone]

24. First time here too - gotta work sometimes!

Thanks for sharing. If Obama takes CA., that would be THE STORY of tonight.

Of course, don't want to get greedy too quick....just a damn nice thought.:)

[jenmito]

5. I looked and didn't see any other threads on it. Do you mind?

:eyes:

[tritsofme]

7. Sorry for the snap.

But when you posted this thread there were 3 threads on the first page of GDP about this poll.

[jenmito]

10. That's ok, but I didn't see any.

[NoBorders]

12. As an Obama supporter, I'm ignoring this poll

Sorry, but that's crazy. If it turns out that big, great, but no way I'm expecting it.

[jenmito]

14. That's reasonable. I'm just reporting what they just showed on MSNBC.

[NoBorders]

20. I hear ya'

Not shooting the messenger. :-)

[jenmito]

25. Thanks.

I don't want to die yet. :)

[Kittycat]

18. Not expecting it either. We have to keep in mind that they have early voting in play.

But it's nice knowing that he closed the ground between a couple weeks back and today. I'm still not banking on a CA delegate win, but I think he'll come close to tying.

[NoBorders]

21. The early voting doesn't necessarily help Clinton

Take a look at this on TPM:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/more-on-the-myth-of-early-voti-1.php

[billbuckhead]

2. You mean from Obama superdelegate James Zogby?

[jenmito]

6. Are Reuters and C-Span also "on his side"?

Good try.

[tritsofme]

9. Reuters and CSPAN only footed the bill for the poll.

Although I don't think there is any bias on Zogby's part.

Its either a brilliant poll or an outlier. I'm betting on the latter.

[jenmito]

11. How do you know? And I doubt it's an outlier. This is the most recent poll and his

numbers have been rising every day!

[tritsofme]

19. That's how polls work.

A news organization pays a respected pollster to make a poll for them.

This is the only poll that shows such a large Obama lead, and unless it is proven right tonight, it will have been an outlier.

5% of polls conducted correctly will be outside the MOE and are garbage.

I prefer to look at averages:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html

[jenmito]

26. Thanks for the link. Did you notice their intrade numbers? Obama-61 to Clinton 40!

Just sayin'.

[tritsofme]

39. This is what I was talking about when I said the poll was an outlier.

nt

[billbuckhead]

23. I know NPR certainly is

Much if the corporate media has been cheerleading Obama and those who keep track have stats to prove it.

[jenmito]

27. Did NPR endorse him?

[billbuckhead]

29. Better than that! They have softball interviews with him during prime drivetime

[jenmito]

30. That's your opinion.

[NJSecularist]

4. I think this might be the break of the new voters who have decided within the last week

But the race will be much closer than this.

[jenmito]

13. I agree...

and I agree...especially because of the early voting.

[HughMoran]

15. Posted last night. Here is a Feb 3 to Feb 4 Survey USA poll for comparision...

[jaysunb]

16. Hope it's enough to balance out the early votes

n/t

[Meshuga]

22. I'm for Obama but I don't trust polls

Specially when they are so volatile. I will only say "wow" or celebrate after seeing actual results.

What kills me is the fact that there are paper ballots and we are only going to know for sure sometime tomorrow. :-)

[jenmito]

31. I feel the same way...

And I may not be able to sleep until tomorrow!

[Meshuga]

35. This is big

And I can't wait to see what unfolds. :-)

[jenmito]

36. Yes, it is!

And Yes We Can! :)

[TheWraith]

28. That sounds WAAY out there.

Yes, it's been tightening in Obama's favor, but there's no way that there's a sudden 13 point gap. I wouldn't buy anything more than five, personally.

[jenmito]

32. You could be right, but look at what happened in SC!

Maybe the same thing's happening in CA since he really had the big guns come out for him this past weekend.

[TheWraith]

33. True, though part of SC was late-breaking undecideds.

They went heavily for Obama. Plus the negative campaigning of the Clinton camp pushed more people out of their corner, and they've toned that down a bit in the last week or so.

[jenmito]

37. Yes, which may be happening again...

And although the Clintons calmed down the negative campaigning this time, SO much has given Obama last-minute momentum that it may have changed peoples' votes to Obama.

[David Zephyr]

34. I am one of the proud 49%! here in the Golden State!

http://userwww.sfsu.edu/~nliang/Picture/YosemiteNationalPark,California_1.jpg

[jenmito]

38. YAY! How long ago did you decide on Obama?

p.s. Nice pic, BTW! :hi:

[William769]

40. So much for that poll.

[joshcryer]

41. Well I guess this didn't turn out the way people were expecting.