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We've had 26 states vote in Primaries or Caucuses so far. Two of those states, Florida and Michigan, have been sanctioned and stripped of their delegates, super and pledged.
Of the 24 states whose votes are being honored, 15,203,809 people have cast votes for either Obama or Clinton. As of right now, the Popular Vote Count is:
Obama: 7,743,323
Clinton: 7,460,486
Obama has a lead, of only 282,837 more individuals voting for him.
The Delegate Count, still being calculated from Tuesday's votes stand at:
Clinton: 619
Obama: 614
Clinton leads by only 5 Pledged Delegates. 559 have yet to be placed from Tuesday's vote, with 300 of those from California.
Adding the Super Delegates:
Clinton: 619+201(supers)=820
Obama: 614+110(supers)=724
Clnton leads by 96. 485 Superdelegates have yet to declare where their vote would go.
If Obama and Clinton keep splitting the Pledged(voted) Delegates to the last Primary, they would each sit around 1628 total. Not enough to win the Nomination. Adding, the current Super delegate allocation gives these numbers:
Clinton: 1828 Obama: 1738
In this scenario, either would need heavy support from the superdelegates to bridge the gap to the magic number, 2,026. Clinton has a higher percentage of the supers, and even a split in half with them would give her the nod. But, at what consequence?
How would a superdelegate tilted win be perceived and accepted by Democratic voters, especially those who have come new to the Party this Primary? Especially to those who came new to this Primary because of excitement for Obama. It can't be denied that he has generated impressive interest in the political process among many who have never cared or felt a reason to be involved.
We all hope regardless of who becomes our Nominee that ALL the Democratic voters will come back in the Fall, and motivate those around them to do the same. I believe most would, based on a popular vote, pledged delegate win. I am not so sure about a superdelegate decided victory.
I am seeing a brokered convention. And when no clear winner is known on the first round of balloting, all delegates will be released, including Florida and Michigan. And who knows where they will land?
At that point, Florida and Michigan will be joined by every voter of every state in not having a say in the final outcome of the Primary.
We, conceivably, could be handed a Nominee. One who didn't receive the Popular Vote, one who didn't receive the Pledged Delegates. One, potentially, that didn't even run. I don't see how that would happen, but who knows?
This is why I think, more and more, that we may already have our ticket.
We just don't have the order.
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